Prediction: LA Galaxy vs FC Dallas
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.07Total
LA Galaxy1.67
FC Dallas1.41
1X2
LA Galaxy
Draw
FC Dallas
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 63%
Both teams to score 57%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
LA Galaxy
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
FC Dallas
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
LA Galaxy
2–1–3
FC Dallas
(6 last)
- FC Dallas2-2LA Galaxy
- LA Galaxy2-1FC Dallas
- FC Dallas2-1LA Galaxy
- FC Dallas2-0LA Galaxy
- LA Galaxy3-1FC Dallas
- LA Galaxy1-4FC Dallas
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · LA Galaxy 1502 · FC Dallas 1508
| LA Galaxy | Draw | FC Dallas | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 26% | 31% |
| Market | 43% | 25% | 32% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.07 goals · Bet365 line 3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours FC Dallas: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 9.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| LA Galaxy | FC Dallas | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.2 / 1.4 | 1.7 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.8 | 1 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/40/30% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 5.3 | 2 / 4.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5 / 0.1 | 4.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · LA Galaxy 2–1–3 FC Dallas
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04/26 USA MLS | FC Dallas | 2-2 HT 2-2 | LA Galaxy |
| 12/10/25 USA MLS | LA Galaxy | 2-1 HT 1-0 | FC Dallas |
| 04/10/25 USA MLS | FC Dallas | 2-1 HT 2-1 | LA Galaxy |
| 14/07/24 USA MLS | FC Dallas | 2-0 HT 1-0 | LA Galaxy |
| 30/05/24 USA MLS | LA Galaxy | 3-1 HT 1-1 | FC Dallas |
| 22/10/23 USA MLS | LA Galaxy | 1-4 HT 1-4 | FC Dallas |
Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 16 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 37 | 16 | 33 |
| 2 | Los Angeles FC | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 34 | 18 | 33 |
| 3 | San Jose Earthquakes | 17 | 10 | 3 | 4 | 35 | 20 | 33 |
| 4 | Real Salt Lake | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 28 | 24 | 26 |
| 5 | Houston Dynamo | 16 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 23 | 24 | 26 |
| 6 | FC Dallas | 17 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 32 | 25 | 26 |
| 7 | St. Louis City SC | 17 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 23 | 23 | 25 |
| 8 | Seattle Sounders | 16 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 19 | 20 | 24 |
| 9 | Minnesota United | 17 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 19 | 24 | 23 |
| 10 | Portland Timbers | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 31 | 32 | 21 |
| 11 | LA Galaxy | 18 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 24 | 29 | 21 |
| 12 | San Diego FC | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 31 | 28 | 20 |
| 13 | Colorado Rapids | 17 | 6 | 1 | 10 | 26 | 25 | 19 |
| 14 | Austin FC | 17 | 4 | 5 | 8 | 22 | 35 | 17 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 17 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 18 | 44 | 14 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | LA Galaxy | FC Dallas |
|---|---|---|
| San Jose Earthquakes | 1-1 D | 3-2 W |
| Seattle Sounders | 2-0 W | 1-2 L |
| Vancouver Whitecaps | 1-1 D | 2-3 L |
| Real Salt Lake | 2-1 W | 3-1 W |
| Record vs common | 2 W 2 D 0 L | 2 W 0 D 2 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
LA Galaxy
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS |
1-0 | 1-1 | 6 | 6 | D |
| 23/07 | St. Louis City SC USA MLS |
0-2 | 1-3 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 18/07 | Los Angeles FC USA MLS |
0-2 | 0-3 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 12/07 | Club America America Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 24/05 | Houston Dynamo USA MLS |
1-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 17/05 | Seattle Sounders USA MLS |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 14/05 | Sporting Kansas City USA MLS |
0-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | Atlanta United USA MLS |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 03/05 | Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 10 | D |
| 27/04 | Real Salt Lake USA MLS |
1-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 8 | W |
FC Dallas
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07 | San Diego FC USA MLS |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 23/07 | Portland Timbers USA MLS |
1-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 24/05 | Colorado Rapids USA MLS |
2-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 17/05 | San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS |
1-1 | 3-2 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 14/05 | Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS |
1-2 | 2-3 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 10/05 | Real Salt Lake USA MLS |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 03/05 | New York Red Bulls USA MLS |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 26/04 | Seattle Sounders USA MLS |
1-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 23/04 | Minnesota United USA MLS |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 19/04 | LA Galaxy USA MLS |
2-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 2 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in LA Galaxy vs FC Dallas?
According to our model, the most likely result is a LA Galaxy win (43%). Probabilities: LA Galaxy 43%, draw 25%, FC Dallas 32%.
How many goals are expected in LA Galaxy vs FC Dallas?
The model expects 3.07 goals (LA Galaxy 1.67 · FC Dallas 1.41), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in LA Galaxy vs FC Dallas?
The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.