Football · USA MLS · 02/08, 02:30

Prediction: Sporting Kansas City vs Houston Dynamo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.8Total

Sporting Kansas City1.26

Houston Dynamo1.54

1X2

31% 26% 43%

Sporting Kansas City Draw Houston Dynamo

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Sporting Kansas City 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLDLWWLLWL

Houston Dynamo 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DWWLWDDWDW

Head-to-head

Sporting Kansas City 2–2–2 Houston Dynamo (6 last)

Sporting Kansas City0-0Houston Dynamo
Houston Dynamo1-3Sporting Kansas City
Sporting Kansas City1-2Houston Dynamo
Houston Dynamo1-1Sporting Kansas City
Houston Dynamo1-0Sporting Kansas City
Sporting Kansas City2-1Houston Dynamo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sporting Kansas City 1464 · Houston Dynamo 1547

	Sporting Kansas City	Draw	Houston Dynamo
Our model	30%	27%	42%
Market	31%	25%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 2.8 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Houston Dynamo (rating 1464 vs 1547).
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sporting Kansas City	Houston Dynamo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.7	1.6 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.6	1 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	40/60/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4	1.4 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0	5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.70

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.90

2 (-0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.93

Under 31.88

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Pinn 3.37 ★
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.15 → 2.15	Pinn 2.18

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.9% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:20	3.00	3.70	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:20	3.37	3.40	2.18

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Sporting Kansas City 2–2–2 Houston Dynamo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/10/25 USA MLS	Sporting Kansas City	0-0 HT 0-0	Houston Dynamo
01/06/25 USA MLS	Houston Dynamo	1-3 HT 1-1	Sporting Kansas City
12/05/24 USA MLS	Sporting Kansas City	1-2 HT 0-1	Houston Dynamo
25/02/24 USA MLS	Houston Dynamo	1-1 HT 0-0	Sporting Kansas City
27/11/23 USA MLS	Houston Dynamo	1-0 HT 1-0	Sporting Kansas City
24/09/23 USA MLS	Sporting Kansas City	2-1 HT 2-1	Houston Dynamo

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	16	10	3	3	37	16	33
2	Los Angeles FC	18	10	3	5	34	18	33
3	San Jose Earthquakes	17	10	3	4	35	20	33
4	Real Salt Lake	16	8	2	6	28	24	26
5	Houston Dynamo	16	8	2	6	23	24	26
6	FC Dallas	17	7	5	5	32	25	26
7	St. Louis City SC	17	7	4	6	23	23	25
8	Seattle Sounders	16	7	3	6	19	20	24
9	Minnesota United	17	6	5	6	19	24	23
10	Portland Timbers	17	6	3	8	31	32	21
11	LA Galaxy	18	5	6	7	24	29	21
12	San Diego FC	17	5	5	7	31	28	20
13	Colorado Rapids	17	6	1	10	26	25	19
14	Austin FC	17	4	5	8	22	35	17
15	Sporting Kansas City	17	4	2	11	18	44	14

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sporting Kansas City	Houston Dynamo
Los Angeles FC	0-4 L	4-1 W
St. Louis City SC	2-3 L	2-2 D
Austin FC	2-1 W	3-0 W
LA Galaxy	3-1 W	1-1 D
Vancouver Whitecaps	0-3 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	3 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Houston Dynamo (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Sporting Kansas City

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-3	0-4	1	2	L
23/07	Minnesota United USA MLS	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
17/07	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	1-2	2-3	6	3	L
24/05	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-2	1-2	6	3	L
17/05	Austin FC USA MLS	0-1	2-1	7	7	W
14/05	LA Galaxy USA MLS	2-0	3-1	4	3	W
10/05	Portland Timbers USA MLS	0-4	0-6	4	6	L
02/05	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
26/04	Chicago Fire USA MLS	0-0	0-5	2	1	L
18/04	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-3	0-3	3	3	L

Houston Dynamo

DWWLWDDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Austin FC USA MLS	3-0	3-0	1	4	W
23/07	DC United USA MLS	1-0	1-1	3	6	D
16/07	America de Cali Club Friendly List	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
24/05	LA Galaxy USA MLS	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
20/05	St. Louis City SC USA US Open Cup	2-1	2-2	5	8	D
17/05	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
14/05	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-0	0-3	1	1	L
11/05	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	2-1	4-1	3	7	W
03/05	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-0	1-0	6	6	W
30/04	Louisville City FC USA US Open Cup	0-0	1-1	10	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sporting Kansas City vs Houston Dynamo?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Houston Dynamo win (43%). Probabilities: Sporting Kansas City 31%, draw 26%, Houston Dynamo 43%.

How many goals are expected in Sporting Kansas City vs Houston Dynamo?

The model expects 2.8 goals (Sporting Kansas City 1.26 · Houston Dynamo 1.54), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Sporting Kansas City vs Houston Dynamo?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.