Prediction: Minnesota United vs Atlanta United
Team pages: Minnesota United · Atlanta United
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.86Total
Minnesota United1.82
Atlanta United1.04
1X2
Minnesota United
Draw
Atlanta United
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Minnesota United
1-5-4 (W-D-L)
Atlanta United
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Minnesota United
2–1–3
Atlanta United
(6 last)
- Atlanta United1-2Minnesota United
- Atlanta United2-1Minnesota United
- Atlanta United3-0Minnesota United
- Minnesota United0-1Atlanta United
- Atlanta United1-1Minnesota United
- Atlanta United2-3Minnesota United
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Minnesota United 1465 · Atlanta United 1457
| Minnesota United | Draw | Atlanta United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 54% | 25% | 20% |
| Market | 55% | 25% | 21% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.86 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Atlanta United: 3-1-2.
- High corners: 10.7 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Minnesota United | Atlanta United | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 0.9 / 1.1 | 1.3 / 2.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.3 / 0.7 | 0.3 / 1.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 10/40/50% | 20/20/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.1 / 6.8 | 2.5 / 3.9 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0 | 4.2 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Minnesota United 2–1–3 Atlanta United
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05/05/24 USA MLS | Atlanta United | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Minnesota United |
| 28/08/19 USA US Open Cup | Atlanta United | 2-1 HT 2-0 | Minnesota United |
| 30/05/19 USA MLS | Atlanta United | 3-0 HT 1-0 | Minnesota United |
| 01/04/18 USA MLS | Minnesota United | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Atlanta United |
| 22/02/18 World Club Friendlies | Atlanta United | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Minnesota United |
| 04/10/17 USA MLS | Atlanta United | 2-3 HT 0-0 | Minnesota United |
Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Houston Dynamo | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 28 | 24 | 35 |
| 2 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 38 | 17 | 34 |
| 3 | Los Angeles FC | 20 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 35 | 20 | 34 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 38 | 27 | 33 |
| 5 | St. Louis City SC | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 27 | 25 | 29 |
| 6 | Real Salt Lake | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 30 | 26 | 28 |
| 7 | FC Dallas | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 32 | 25 | 27 |
| 8 | Colorado Rapids | 19 | 8 | 1 | 10 | 29 | 25 | 25 |
| 9 | Minnesota United | 19 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 21 | 26 | 25 |
| 10 | Portland Timbers | 18 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 33 | 33 | 24 |
| 11 | Seattle Sounders | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 20 | 22 | 24 |
| 12 | San Diego FC | 19 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 33 | 29 | 24 |
| 13 | LA Galaxy | 20 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 24 | 30 | 22 |
| 14 | Austin FC | 18 | 4 | 5 | 9 | 22 | 36 | 17 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 19 | 4 | 2 | 13 | 18 | 48 | 14 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Minnesota United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | Real Salt Lake USA MLS |
0-0 | 1-1 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 12/08 | Atlante Leagues Cup |
0-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 08/08 | Tigres UANL Leagues Cup |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 4 | D |
| 05/08 | Juarez FC Leagues Cup |
1-2 | 1-2 | 8 | 4 | L |
| 02/08 | San Diego FC USA MLS |
1-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 26/07 | Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS |
0-0 | 0-0 | 5 | 3 | D |
| 23/07 | Sporting Kansas City USA MLS |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 5 | L |
| 24/05 | Real Salt Lake USA MLS |
0-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 17/05 | New England Revolution USA MLS |
1-1 | 1-2 | 11 | 3 | L |
| 14/05 | Colorado Rapids USA MLS |
0-1 | 0-1 | 5 | 9 | L |
Atlanta United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08 | New York Red Bulls USA MLS |
0-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 3 | W |
| 02/08 | Philadelphia Union USA MLS |
1-0 | 2-3 | 2 | 6 | L |
| 26/07 | New England Revolution USA MLS |
0-2 | 1-4 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 23/07 | Charlotte FC USA MLS |
0-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 18/07 | Nashville SC USA MLS |
0-0 | 0-1 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 24/05 | Columbus Crew USA MLS |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 20/05 | Orlando City SC USA US Open Cup |
0-4 | 1-4 | 1 | 6 | L |
| 17/05 | Orlando City SC USA MLS |
0-1 | 1-1 | 10 | 3 | D |
| 10/05 | LA Galaxy USA MLS |
0-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 4 | L |
| 03/05 | CF Montreal USA MLS |
2-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Minnesota United vs Atlanta United?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Minnesota United win (55%). Probabilities: Minnesota United 55%, draw 25%, Atlanta United 21%.
How many goals are expected in Minnesota United vs Atlanta United?
The model expects 2.86 goals (Minnesota United 1.82 · Atlanta United 1.04), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Minnesota United vs Atlanta United?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.