Football · USA MLS · 30/08, 02:30

Prediction: Nashville SC vs FC Cincinnati

Team pages: Nashville SC · FC Cincinnati

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.64Total

Nashville SC2.2

FC Cincinnati1.44

1X2

54% 23% 24%

Nashville SC Draw FC Cincinnati

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Nashville SC 8-1-1 (W-D-L)

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FC Cincinnati 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Nashville SC 1–2–3 FC Cincinnati (6 last)

FC Cincinnati2-1Nashville SC
Nashville SC1-2FC Cincinnati
Nashville SC2-2FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati0-2Nashville SC
FC Cincinnati1-1Nashville SC
FC Cincinnati3-1Nashville SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Nashville SC 1558 · FC Cincinnati 1538

	Nashville SC	Draw	FC Cincinnati
Our model	54%	22%	24%
Market	53%	23%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 3.64 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC Cincinnati: 3-2-1.
High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Nashville SC	FC Cincinnati
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 0.9	2.7 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.3	1.4 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/60/0%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.1	2.3 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0	4.1 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.75

X4.00

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Pinn 1.80
X	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.16 ★
2	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.1% Pinnacle margin 5.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:21 +3’	1.75	4.00	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:23	1.80	4.16	3.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Nashville SC 1–2–3 FC Cincinnati

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/09/25 USA MLS	FC Cincinnati	2-1 HT 0-0	Nashville SC
30/03/25 USA MLS	Nashville SC	1-2 HT 1-1	FC Cincinnati
22/09/24 USA MLS	Nashville SC	2-2 HT 2-1	FC Cincinnati
30/05/24 USA MLS	FC Cincinnati	0-2 HT 0-2	Nashville SC
05/08/23 Leagues Cup	FC Cincinnati	1-1 HT 0-0	Nashville SC
16/07/23 USA MLS	FC Cincinnati	3-1 HT 1-1	Nashville SC

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	21	15	4	2	43	17	49
2	Inter Miami CF	21	11	6	4	49	40	39
3	Chicago Fire	20	11	3	6	37	26	36
4	New England Revolution	21	10	4	7	33	26	34
5	Charlotte FC	21	9	5	7	38	32	32
6	FC Cincinnati	21	8	7	6	49	47	31
7	New York City FC	21	7	6	8	35	30	27
8	New York Red Bulls	21	7	5	9	31	43	26
9	Orlando City SC	21	7	3	11	34	51	24
10	Toronto FC	21	5	9	7	31	37	24
11	DC United	21	5	9	7	28	36	24
12	Philadelphia Union	21	5	6	10	31	38	21
13	CF Montreal	21	5	6	10	29	39	21
14	Columbus Crew	21	5	5	11	30	36	20
15	Atlanta United	20	5	3	12	23	35	18

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Nashville SC	FC Cincinnati
Columbus Crew	3-2 W	1-2 L
Inter Miami CF	4-1 W	3-5 L
Orlando City SC	0-1 L	1-1 D
New York City FC	2-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Nashville SC (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Nashville SC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Columbus Crew USA MLS	1-0	3-2	8	2	W
20/08	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-0	1-0	10	3	W
16/08	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-1	4-1	10	4	W
02/08	DC United USA MLS	2-0	2-2	3	5	D
26/07	Orlando City SC USA MLS	0-0	0-1	7	1	L
23/07	CF Montreal USA MLS	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
18/07	Atlanta United USA MLS	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
24/05	New York City FC USA MLS	1-1	2-1	6	3	W
18/05	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	2-1	3-2	3	5	W
14/05	New England Revolution USA MLS	2-0	3-0	7	5	W

FC Cincinnati

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-0	1-1	9	3	D
20/08	New York City FC USA MLS	1-1	2-1	2	6	W
16/08	Orlando City SC USA MLS	1-0	1-1	5	3	D
02/08	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	1-1	4-2	9	3	W
26/07	Columbus Crew USA MLS	1-2	1-2	5	2	L
23/07	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	3-2	4-3	1	6	W
24/05	Orlando City SC USA MLS	2-1	6-2	6	5	W
17/05	San Diego FC USA MLS	1-1	3-3	2	4	D
14/05	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-1	3-5	1	5	L
10/05	Charlotte FC USA MLS	2-0	2-2	4	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Nashville SC vs FC Cincinnati?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Nashville SC win (54%). Probabilities: Nashville SC 54%, draw 23%, FC Cincinnati 24%.

How many goals are expected in Nashville SC vs FC Cincinnati?

The model expects 3.64 goals (Nashville SC 2.2 · FC Cincinnati 1.44), with a 53% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Nashville SC vs FC Cincinnati?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.