Football · USA MLS · 30/08, 01:30

Prediction: New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union

Team pages: New York Red Bulls · Philadelphia Union

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.47Total

New York Red Bulls1.62

Philadelphia Union1.84

1X2

33% 24% 42%

New York Red Bulls Draw Philadelphia Union

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

New York Red Bulls 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

WWDWLLWLLD

Philadelphia Union 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

LLDLWWWWDD

Head-to-head

New York Red Bulls 1–1–4 Philadelphia Union (6 last)

Philadelphia Union3-1New York Red Bulls
New York Red Bulls1-0Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia Union3-2New York Red Bulls
Philadelphia Union2-0New York Red Bulls
New York Red Bulls0-2Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia Union0-0New York Red Bulls

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · New York Red Bulls 1490 · Philadelphia Union 1501

	New York Red Bulls	Draw	Philadelphia Union
Our model	33%	24%	42%
Market	33%	24%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 3.47 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Philadelphia Union: 4-1-1.
High corners: 10.9 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	New York Red Bulls	Philadelphia Union
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.6	2.2 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.5	0.9 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5	3.3 / 5.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.1	4.5 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.80

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.85

Under 3.251.95

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.80	Pinn 3.10 ★
X	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 3.90
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.5% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
14:58 +2’	2.80	3.80	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
04:00 +3’	3.09	3.76	2.12
04:44 +5’	3.10▲	3.90▲	2.12

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3.25

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · New York Red Bulls 1–1–4 Philadelphia Union

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/07/26 USA MLS	Philadelphia Union	3-1 HT 1-1	New York Red Bulls
17/08/25 USA MLS	New York Red Bulls	1-0 HT 0-0	Philadelphia Union
14/08/25 USA US Open Cup	Philadelphia Union	3-2 HT 1-1	New York Red Bulls
13/07/25 USA MLS	Philadelphia Union	2-0 HT 2-0	New York Red Bulls
01/09/24 USA MLS	New York Red Bulls	0-2 HT 0-2	Philadelphia Union
07/07/24 USA MLS	Philadelphia Union	0-0 HT 0-0	New York Red Bulls

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	21	15	4	2	43	17	49
2	Inter Miami CF	21	11	6	4	49	40	39
3	Chicago Fire	20	11	3	6	37	26	36
4	New England Revolution	20	10	3	7	32	25	33
5	Charlotte FC	21	9	5	7	38	32	32
6	FC Cincinnati	21	8	7	6	49	47	31
7	New York City FC	20	7	5	8	34	29	26
8	New York Red Bulls	21	7	5	9	31	43	26
9	Orlando City SC	21	7	3	11	34	51	24
10	Toronto FC	21	5	9	7	31	37	24
11	DC United	21	5	9	7	28	36	24
12	Philadelphia Union	21	5	6	10	31	38	21
13	CF Montreal	21	5	6	10	29	39	21
14	Columbus Crew	21	5	5	11	30	36	20
15	Atlanta United	20	5	3	12	23	35	18

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	New York Red Bulls	Philadelphia Union
Atlanta United	1-2 L	3-2 W
Orlando City SC	3-2 W	3-4 L
New York City FC	1-1 D	3-2 W
Columbus Crew	3-2 W	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

New York Red Bulls

WWDWLLWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Chicago Fire USA MLS	0-1	1-1	3	3	D
20/08	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-0	0-1	7	3	L
16/08	Atlanta United USA MLS	1-0	1-2	7	3	L
02/08	Orlando City SC USA MLS	2-0	3-2	5	5	W
26/07	Charlotte FC USA MLS	0-2	0-2	6	6	L
23/07	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	1-1	1-3	6	3	L
24/05	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	2-0	2-1	1	3	W
17/05	New York City FC USA MLS	1-0	1-1	9	7	D
14/05	Columbus Crew USA MLS	2-1	3-2	3	5	W
09/05	Chicago Fire USA MLS	1-0	3-1	3	4	W

Philadelphia Union

LLDLWWWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Austin FC USA MLS	1-1	1-1	6	3	D
20/08	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-2	2-2	4	8	D
17/08	New York City FC USA MLS	0-2	3-2	4	7	W
02/08	Atlanta United USA MLS	0-1	3-2	12	6	W
26/07	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-0	1-0	6	1	W
23/07	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	1-1	3-1	8	3	W
25/05	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	4-4	4-6	2	9	L
17/05	Columbus Crew USA MLS	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
14/05	Orlando City SC USA MLS	0-2	3-4	10	4	L
10/05	New England Revolution USA MLS	1-0	1-2	3	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Philadelphia Union win (42%). Probabilities: New York Red Bulls 33%, draw 24%, Philadelphia Union 42%.

How many goals are expected in New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union?

The model expects 3.47 goals (New York Red Bulls 1.62 · Philadelphia Union 1.84), with a 52% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in New York Red Bulls vs Philadelphia Union?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.