Football · USA MLS · 30/08, 01:30

Prediction: DC United vs Los Angeles FC

Team pages: DC United · Los Angeles FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3Total

DC United1.29

Los Angeles FC1.7

1X2

28% 25% 46%

DC United Draw Los Angeles FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

DC United 1-6-3 (W-D-L)

DLDDDWDDLL

Los Angeles FC 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LLWWWWDLLD

Head-to-head

DC United 2–1–2 Los Angeles FC (5 last)

DC United2-1Los Angeles FC
Los Angeles FC1-0DC United
Los Angeles FC0-2DC United
DC United0-4Los Angeles FC
Los Angeles FC1-1DC United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · DC United 1476 · Los Angeles FC 1516

	DC United	Draw	Los Angeles FC
Our model	28%	26%	46%
Market	29%	25%	46%

Estimated total (ours) 3 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Los Angeles FC (rating 1476 vs 1516).
High corners: 12.7 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	DC United	Los Angeles FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.1	1.6 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.6 / 6	2.6 / 6.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.2	3.5 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

13.25

X3.70

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)2.02

2 (-0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.48 ★
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.00 → 2.00	Pinn 2.06

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.8% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
14:55 +5’	3.25	3.70	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
05:36	3.46	3.61	2.01
06:32	3.50▲	3.66▲	2.03▲
10:50	3.47▼	3.65▼	2.05▲
16:42 +7’	3.48▲	3.61▼	2.06▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · DC United 2–1–2 Los Angeles FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/02/23 World Club Friendlies	DC United	2-1	Los Angeles FC
17/08/22 USA MLS	Los Angeles FC	1-0 HT 0-0	DC United
16/02/22 Friendlies	Los Angeles FC	0-2 HT 0-1	DC United
06/04/19 USA MLS	DC United	0-4 HT 0-3	Los Angeles FC
27/05/18 USA MLS	Los Angeles FC	1-1 HT 1-0	DC United

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	20	12	4	4	45	18	40
2	Houston Dynamo	21	12	2	7	30	26	38
3	Los Angeles FC	22	10	5	7	36	22	35
4	San Jose Earthquakes	21	10	3	8	39	33	33
5	FC Dallas	21	9	6	6	38	34	33
6	St. Louis City SC	21	9	6	6	30	27	33
7	Colorado Rapids	21	9	1	11	30	28	28
8	Real Salt Lake	20	8	4	8	34	32	28
9	Portland Timbers	21	8	4	9	38	37	28
10	Minnesota United	21	7	7	7	27	29	28
11	San Diego FC	21	7	6	8	37	32	27
12	LA Galaxy	22	6	8	8	27	32	26
13	Seattle Sounders	20	7	4	9	22	27	25
14	Austin FC	21	5	6	10	26	40	21
15	Sporting Kansas City	20	4	3	13	19	49	15

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	DC United	Los Angeles FC
Nashville SC	2-2 D	2-3 L
St. Louis City SC	1-1 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 0 L	0 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: DC United (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

DC United

DLDDDWDDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Charlotte FC USA MLS	0-0	1-3	9	5	L
20/08	New England Revolution USA MLS	0-2	0-3	4	3	L
16/08	CF Montreal USA MLS	0-0	1-1	3	3	D
02/08	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-2	2-2	8	5	D
26/07	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-0	2-1	8	2	W
23/07	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-1	1-1	3	6	D
24/05	CF Montreal USA MLS	2-1	4-4	6	7	D
17/05	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-0	1-1	5	8	D
14/05	Chicago Fire USA MLS	1-0	1-3	7	5	L
10/05	Nashville SC USA MLS	2-0	2-2	7	5	D

Los Angeles FC

LLWWWWDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Portland Timbers USA MLS	0-1	1-1	12	5	D
20/08	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-1	0-1	4	6	L
16/08	San Diego FC USA MLS	0-0	0-1	9	8	L
02/08	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	1-0	1-1	1	2	D
26/07	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	3-0	4-0	5	2	W
23/07	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	2-0	3-1	7	0	W
18/07	LA Galaxy USA MLS	2-0	3-0	3	3	W
25/05	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	0-0	1-0	7	0	W
18/05	Nashville SC USA MLS	1-2	2-3	11	5	L
14/05	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-1	1-2	8	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in DC United vs Los Angeles FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Los Angeles FC win (46%). Probabilities: DC United 28%, draw 25%, Los Angeles FC 46%.

How many goals are expected in DC United vs Los Angeles FC?

The model expects 3 goals (DC United 1.29 · Los Angeles FC 1.7), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in DC United vs Los Angeles FC?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.