Football · USA MLS · 30/08, 02:30

Prediction: Sporting Kansas City vs Vancouver Whitecaps

Team pages: Sporting Kansas City · Vancouver Whitecaps

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.23Total

Sporting Kansas City0.93

Vancouver Whitecaps2.29

1X2

13% 20% 67%

Sporting Kansas City Draw Vancouver Whitecaps

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

0-2 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Sporting Kansas City 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LWWLLWLLLD

Vancouver Whitecaps 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWLWLDDWLW

Head-to-head

Sporting Kansas City 1–5 Vancouver Whitecaps (6 last)

Vancouver Whitecaps3-0Sporting Kansas City
Sporting Kansas City0-2Vancouver Whitecaps
Vancouver Whitecaps3-0Sporting Kansas City
Vancouver Whitecaps2-1Sporting Kansas City
Sporting Kansas City1-2Vancouver Whitecaps
Sporting Kansas City3-0Vancouver Whitecaps

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sporting Kansas City 1440 · Vancouver Whitecaps 1518

	Sporting Kansas City	Draw	Vancouver Whitecaps
Our model	13%	20%	67%
Market	13%	20%	67%

Estimated total (ours) 3.23 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Vancouver Whitecaps (rating 1440 vs 1518).
H2H favours Vancouver Whitecaps: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sporting Kansas City	Vancouver Whitecaps
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.3	1.9 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.3	1 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.4	2.3 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.8 / 0.3	4.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

17.00

X4.75

21.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.5)1.80

2 (-1.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	7.00 → 7.00	Bet365 7.00
X	4.75 → 4.75	Pinn 5.16 ★
2	1.38 → 1.38	Pinn 1.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.8% Pinnacle margin 7.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:21 +3’	7.00	4.75	1.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
01:26	6.23	5.16	1.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Sporting Kansas City 1–0–5 Vancouver Whitecaps

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 USA MLS	Vancouver Whitecaps	3-0 HT 3-0	Sporting Kansas City
21/09/25 USA MLS	Sporting Kansas City	0-2 HT 0-2	Vancouver Whitecaps
27/07/25 USA MLS	Vancouver Whitecaps	3-0 HT 2-0	Sporting Kansas City
18/07/24 USA MLS	Vancouver Whitecaps	2-1 HT 1-0	Sporting Kansas City
30/05/24 USA MLS	Sporting Kansas City	1-2 HT 0-1	Vancouver Whitecaps
02/07/23 USA MLS	Sporting Kansas City	3-0 HT 2-0	Vancouver Whitecaps

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	20	12	4	4	45	18	40
2	Houston Dynamo	21	12	2	7	30	26	38
3	Los Angeles FC	22	10	5	7	36	22	35
4	San Jose Earthquakes	21	10	3	8	39	33	33
5	FC Dallas	21	9	6	6	38	34	33
6	St. Louis City SC	21	9	6	6	30	27	33
7	Colorado Rapids	21	9	1	11	30	28	28
8	Real Salt Lake	20	8	4	8	34	32	28
9	Portland Timbers	21	8	4	9	38	37	28
10	Minnesota United	21	7	7	7	27	29	28
11	San Diego FC	21	7	6	8	37	32	27
12	LA Galaxy	22	6	8	8	27	32	26
13	Seattle Sounders	20	7	4	9	22	27	25
14	Austin FC	21	5	6	10	26	40	21
15	Sporting Kansas City	20	4	3	13	19	49	15

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sporting Kansas City	Vancouver Whitecaps
Houston Dynamo	0-2 L	0-1 L
Los Angeles FC	0-4 L	1-1 D
Minnesota United	2-1 W	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Vancouver Whitecaps (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Sporting Kansas City

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/08	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-1	1-1	9	4	D
16/08	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-0	0-2	2	5	L
02/08	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-0	0-2	2	3	L
26/07	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-3	0-4	1	2	L
23/07	Minnesota United USA MLS	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
17/07	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	1-2	2-3	6	3	L
24/05	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-2	1-2	6	3	L
17/05	Austin FC USA MLS	0-1	2-1	7	7	W
14/05	LA Galaxy USA MLS	2-0	3-1	4	3	W
10/05	Portland Timbers USA MLS	0-4	0-6	4	6	L

Vancouver Whitecaps

DWLWLDDWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	FC Dallas USA MLS	4-0	5-0	9	6	W
20/08	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-1	0-1	8	3	L
17/08	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	0-0	2-0	8	3	W
02/08	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-1	1-1	11	2	D
26/07	Minnesota United USA MLS	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
23/07	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	2-3	3-4	3	6	L
24/05	San Diego FC USA MLS	2-0	4-2	4	6	W
17/05	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-0	0-1	3	6	L
14/05	FC Dallas USA MLS	2-1	3-2	6	7	W
10/05	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	0-1	1-1	4	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sporting Kansas City vs Vancouver Whitecaps?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Vancouver Whitecaps win (67%). Probabilities: Sporting Kansas City 13%, draw 20%, Vancouver Whitecaps 67%.

How many goals are expected in Sporting Kansas City vs Vancouver Whitecaps?

The model expects 3.23 goals (Sporting Kansas City 0.93 · Vancouver Whitecaps 2.29), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sporting Kansas City vs Vancouver Whitecaps?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 0-2.