Football · USA MLS · 30/08, 02:30

Prediction: Houston Dynamo vs San Jose Earthquakes

Team pages: Houston Dynamo · San Jose Earthquakes

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.17Total

Houston Dynamo2.03

San Jose Earthquakes1.14

1X2

57% 23% 20%

Houston Dynamo Draw San Jose Earthquakes

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Houston Dynamo 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LWDDWWWWWL

San Jose Earthquakes 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

DLLWLDLLLL

Head-to-head

Houston Dynamo 3–1–2 San Jose Earthquakes (6 last)

Houston Dynamo1-2San Jose Earthquakes
San Jose Earthquakes3-3Houston Dynamo
San Jose Earthquakes0-1Houston Dynamo
Houston Dynamo2-1San Jose Earthquakes
Houston Dynamo4-1San Jose Earthquakes
San Jose Earthquakes2-1Houston Dynamo

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Houston Dynamo 1559 · San Jose Earthquakes 1406

	Houston Dynamo	Draw	San Jose Earthquakes
Our model	57%	23%	20%
Market	57%	22%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.17 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 66%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Houston Dynamo (rating 1559 vs 1406).
H2H favours Houston Dynamo: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Houston Dynamo	San Jose Earthquakes
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 0.7	1.3 / 2.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.2	0.8 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/40/10%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.2	1.9 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.4	4.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.61

X4.20

24.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.02

2 (+1)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:24

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Pinn 1.75 ★
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 4.60

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8% Pinnacle margin 5.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:21 +3’	1.61	4.20	4.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:23 +1’	1.75	3.80	4.60

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Houston Dynamo 3–1–2 San Jose Earthquakes

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/08/25 USA MLS	Houston Dynamo	1-2 HT 0-1	San Jose Earthquakes
25/05/25 USA MLS	San Jose Earthquakes	3-3 HT 0-1	Houston Dynamo
18/07/24 USA MLS	San Jose Earthquakes	0-1 HT 0-0	Houston Dynamo
31/03/24 USA MLS	Houston Dynamo	2-1 HT 0-1	San Jose Earthquakes
22/06/23 USA MLS	Houston Dynamo	4-1 HT 2-1	San Jose Earthquakes
02/04/23 USA MLS	San Jose Earthquakes	2-1 HT 1-1	Houston Dynamo

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	20	12	4	4	45	18	40
2	Houston Dynamo	21	12	2	7	30	26	38
3	Los Angeles FC	22	10	5	7	36	22	35
4	San Jose Earthquakes	21	10	3	8	39	33	33
5	FC Dallas	21	9	6	6	38	34	33
6	St. Louis City SC	21	9	6	6	30	27	33
7	Colorado Rapids	21	9	1	11	30	28	28
8	Real Salt Lake	20	8	4	8	34	32	28
9	Portland Timbers	21	8	4	9	38	37	28
10	Minnesota United	21	7	7	7	27	29	28
11	San Diego FC	21	7	6	8	37	32	27
12	LA Galaxy	22	6	8	8	27	32	26
13	Seattle Sounders	20	7	4	9	22	27	25
14	Austin FC	21	5	6	10	26	40	21
15	Sporting Kansas City	20	4	3	13	19	49	15

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Houston Dynamo	San Jose Earthquakes
St. Louis City SC	1-2 L	1-3 L
Vancouver Whitecaps	1-0 W	1-1 D
LA Galaxy	1-0 W	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Houston Dynamo (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Houston Dynamo

LWDDWWWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-1	1-2	5	7	L
20/08	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
16/08	LA Galaxy USA MLS	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
08/08	New England Revolution USA MLS	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
02/08	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	0-0	2-0	6	3	W
26/07	Austin FC USA MLS	3-0	3-0	1	4	W
23/07	DC United USA MLS	1-0	1-1	3	6	D
24/05	LA Galaxy USA MLS	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
17/05	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
14/05	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-0	0-3	1	1	L

San Jose Earthquakes

DLLWLDLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Minnesota United USA MLS	1-3	1-5	3	1	L
20/08	LA Galaxy USA MLS	0-0	0-1	5	7	L
16/08	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-2	1-3	3	3	L
02/08	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	1-1	2-4	6	3	L
26/07	LA Galaxy USA MLS	0-1	1-1	6	6	D
23/07	Orlando City SC USA MLS	0-2	0-4	3	6	L
24/05	Portland Timbers USA MLS	3-1	3-1	6	5	W
17/05	FC Dallas USA MLS	1-1	2-3	12	6	L
14/05	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-1	2-3	6	2	L
10/05	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	1-0	1-1	2	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Houston Dynamo vs San Jose Earthquakes?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Houston Dynamo win (57%). Probabilities: Houston Dynamo 57%, draw 23%, San Jose Earthquakes 20%.

How many goals are expected in Houston Dynamo vs San Jose Earthquakes?

The model expects 3.17 goals (Houston Dynamo 2.03 · San Jose Earthquakes 1.14), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Houston Dynamo vs San Jose Earthquakes?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.