Football · USA MLS · 06/09, 01:30

Prediction: Inter Miami CF vs Atlanta United

Team pages: Inter Miami CF · Atlanta United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.18Total

Inter Miami CF2.84

Atlanta United1.34

1X2

68% 18% 15%

Inter Miami CF Draw Atlanta United

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Inter Miami CF 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Atlanta United 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Inter Miami CF 3–1–2 Atlanta United (6 last)

Inter Miami CF4-0Atlanta United
Atlanta United1-2Inter Miami CF
Inter Miami CF2-3Atlanta United
Atlanta United2-1Inter Miami CF
Inter Miami CF2-1Atlanta United
Atlanta United2-2Inter Miami CF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Inter Miami CF 1522 · Atlanta United 1466

	Inter Miami CF	Draw	Atlanta United
Our model	68%	17%	15%
Market	67%	19%	14%

Estimated total (ours) 4.18 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Inter Miami CF (rating 1522 vs 1466).
H2H favours Inter Miami CF: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Inter Miami CF	Atlanta United
Goals for / against (FT)	2.7 / 2.1	1.3 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.4 / 0.9	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/60/0%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.1	2.9 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.2	4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.38

X5.00

26.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)1.95

2 (+1.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.751.90

Under 3.751.90

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.95

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 01:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.38 → 1.38	Pinn 1.44
X	5.00 → 5.00	Pinn 5.26 ★
2	6.50 → 6.50	Bet365 6.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.8% Pinnacle margin 5.7%

Time*	1	X	2
01:25 +2’	1.38	5.00	6.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:58	1.44	5.26	5.76

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Inter Miami CF 3–1–2 Atlanta United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/10/25 USA MLS	Inter Miami CF	4-0 HT 1-0	Atlanta United
17/03/25 USA MLS	Atlanta United	1-2 HT 1-1	Inter Miami CF
10/11/24 USA MLS Play-Offs	Inter Miami CF	2-3 HT 1-2	Atlanta United
03/11/24 USA MLS Play-Offs	Atlanta United	2-1 HT 0-1	Inter Miami CF
26/10/24 USA MLS Play-Offs	Inter Miami CF	2-1 HT 1-1	Atlanta United
19/09/24 USA MLS	Atlanta United	2-2 HT 0-1	Inter Miami CF

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	21	15	4	2	43	17	49
2	Inter Miami CF	21	11	6	4	49	40	39
3	Chicago Fire	20	11	3	6	37	26	36
4	New England Revolution	21	10	4	7	33	26	34
5	Charlotte FC	21	9	5	7	38	32	32
6	FC Cincinnati	21	8	7	6	49	47	31
7	New York City FC	21	7	6	8	35	30	27
8	New York Red Bulls	21	7	5	9	31	43	26
9	Orlando City SC	21	7	3	11	34	51	24
10	Toronto FC	21	5	9	7	31	37	24
11	DC United	21	5	9	7	28	36	24
12	Atlanta United	21	6	3	12	25	36	21
13	Philadelphia Union	21	5	6	10	31	38	21
14	CF Montreal	21	5	6	10	29	39	21
15	Columbus Crew	21	5	5	11	30	36	20

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Inter Miami CF	Atlanta United
Philadelphia Union	2-2 D	2-3 L
Nashville SC	1-4 L	0-1 L
Columbus Crew	2-2 D	0-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 1 L	0 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Inter Miami CF (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Inter Miami CF

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Toronto FC USA MLS	0-0	1-2	3	3	L
20/08	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	2-1	2-2	1	8	D
16/08	Nashville SC USA MLS	1-1	1-4	4	4	L
02/08	Columbus Crew USA MLS	2-1	2-2	5	3	D
26/07	CF Montreal USA MLS	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
23/07	Chicago Fire USA MLS	1-1	3-2	8	2	W
25/05	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	4-4	6-4	4	9	W
18/05	Portland Timbers USA MLS	2-0	2-0	8	4	W
14/05	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	1-1	5-3	8	5	W
09/05	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-0	4-2	4	3	W

Atlanta United

LDLLDLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/08	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	2-0	2-1	2	3	W
20/08	Minnesota United USA MLS	1-0	2-1	4	7	W
16/08	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-1	2-1	3	3	W
02/08	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	1-0	2-3	2	6	L
26/07	New England Revolution USA MLS	0-2	1-4	6	4	L
23/07	Charlotte FC USA MLS	0-2	2-2	3	4	D
18/07	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
24/05	Columbus Crew USA MLS	0-2	0-2	3	5	L
17/05	Orlando City SC USA MLS	0-1	1-1	10	3	D
10/05	LA Galaxy USA MLS	0-0	1-2	6	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Inter Miami CF vs Atlanta United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Inter Miami CF win (68%). Probabilities: Inter Miami CF 68%, draw 18%, Atlanta United 15%.

How many goals are expected in Inter Miami CF vs Atlanta United?

The model expects 4.18 goals (Inter Miami CF 2.84 · Atlanta United 1.34), with a 52% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Inter Miami CF vs Atlanta United?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.