Football · USA MLS · 13/09, 04:30

Prediction: San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo

Team pages: San Jose Earthquakes · Houston Dynamo

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.51Total

San Jose Earthquakes1.33

Houston Dynamo1.19

1X2

40% 27% 33%

San Jose Earthquakes Draw Houston Dynamo

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

San Jose Earthquakes 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LWLDLLLLDD

Houston Dynamo 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DDWWWWWLDD

Head-to-head

San Jose Earthquakes 1–2–3 Houston Dynamo (6 last)

Houston Dynamo0-0San Jose Earthquakes
Houston Dynamo1-2San Jose Earthquakes
San Jose Earthquakes3-3Houston Dynamo
San Jose Earthquakes0-1Houston Dynamo
Houston Dynamo2-1San Jose Earthquakes
Houston Dynamo4-1San Jose Earthquakes

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · San Jose Earthquakes 1431 · Houston Dynamo 1561

	San Jose Earthquakes	Draw	Houston Dynamo
Our model	39%	29%	32%
Market	40%	26%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 2.51 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Houston Dynamo (rating 1431 vs 1561).
H2H favours Houston Dynamo: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	San Jose Earthquakes	Houston Dynamo
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.3	1.2 / 0.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1.1	0.8 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.5	1.9 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.1	4.1 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.60

22.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 2.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.75 → 2.75	Bet365 2.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:15 +10’	2.30	3.60	2.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · San Jose Earthquakes 1–2–3 Houston Dynamo

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/08/26 USA MLS	Houston Dynamo	0-0 HT 0-0	San Jose Earthquakes
24/08/25 USA MLS	Houston Dynamo	1-2 HT 0-1	San Jose Earthquakes
25/05/25 USA MLS	San Jose Earthquakes	3-3 HT 0-1	Houston Dynamo
18/07/24 USA MLS	San Jose Earthquakes	0-1 HT 0-0	Houston Dynamo
31/03/24 USA MLS	Houston Dynamo	2-1 HT 0-1	San Jose Earthquakes
22/06/23 USA MLS	Houston Dynamo	4-1 HT 2-1	San Jose Earthquakes

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	22	13	4	5	49	21	43
2	Houston Dynamo	23	12	4	7	30	26	40
3	Los Angeles FC	24	10	7	7	38	24	37
4	FC Dallas	23	10	7	6	45	40	37
5	St. Louis City SC	23	10	7	6	36	31	37
6	San Jose Earthquakes	23	10	5	8	40	34	35
7	Colorado Rapids	23	10	1	12	31	31	31
8	Portland Timbers	23	9	4	10	44	43	31
9	San Diego FC	23	8	6	9	40	34	30
10	Real Salt Lake	22	8	5	9	36	35	29
11	Minnesota United	23	7	8	8	34	37	29
12	LA Galaxy	24	7	8	9	30	36	29
13	Seattle Sounders	22	7	6	9	24	29	27
14	Austin FC	23	6	7	10	29	42	25
15	Sporting Kansas City	23	4	3	16	23	58	15

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	San Jose Earthquakes	Houston Dynamo
Austin FC	1-1 D	3-0 W
LA Galaxy	0-1 L	1-0 W
St. Louis City SC	1-3 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Houston Dynamo (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

San Jose Earthquakes

LWLDLLLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Austin FC USA MLS	1-0	1-1	7	2	D
30/08	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-0	0-0	4	1	D
23/08	Minnesota United USA MLS	1-3	1-5	3	1	L
20/08	LA Galaxy USA MLS	0-0	0-1	5	7	L
16/08	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-2	1-3	3	3	L
02/08	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	1-1	2-4	6	3	L
26/07	LA Galaxy USA MLS	0-1	1-1	6	6	D
23/07	Orlando City SC USA MLS	0-2	0-4	3	6	L
24/05	Portland Timbers USA MLS	3-1	3-1	6	5	W
17/05	FC Dallas USA MLS	1-1	2-3	12	6	L

Houston Dynamo

DDWWWWWLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Charlotte FC USA MLS	0-0	0-0	6	8	D
30/08	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	0-0	0-0	7	1	D
23/08	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-1	1-2	5	7	L
20/08	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
16/08	LA Galaxy USA MLS	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
08/08	New England Revolution USA MLS	1-0	2-0	4	3	W
02/08	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	0-0	2-0	6	3	W
26/07	Austin FC USA MLS	3-0	3-0	1	4	W
23/07	DC United USA MLS	1-0	1-1	3	6	D
24/05	LA Galaxy USA MLS	1-1	1-1	2	4	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo?

According to our model, the most likely result is a San Jose Earthquakes win (40%). Probabilities: San Jose Earthquakes 40%, draw 27%, Houston Dynamo 33%.

How many goals are expected in San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo?

The model expects 2.51 goals (San Jose Earthquakes 1.33 · Houston Dynamo 1.19), with a 54% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in San Jose Earthquakes vs Houston Dynamo?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.