Prediction: Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution
Team pages: Chicago Fire · New England Revolution
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.33Total
Chicago Fire1.9
New England Revolution1.43
1X2
Chicago Fire
Draw
New England Revolution
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 57%
Both teams to score 58%
Most likely score
1-1 11%
Recent form · 10 last
Chicago Fire
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
New England Revolution
4-3-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Chicago Fire
2–3–1
New England Revolution
(6 last)
- New England Revolution2-2Chicago Fire
- Chicago Fire3-2New England Revolution
- New England Revolution1-3Chicago Fire
- Chicago Fire0-1New England Revolution
- New England Revolution1-1Chicago Fire
- Chicago Fire2-2New England Revolution
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Chicago Fire 1545 · New England Revolution 1524
| Chicago Fire | Draw | New England Revolution | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 24% | 28% |
| Market | 47% | 25% | 28% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.33 goals · Bet365 line 3.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Chicago Fire: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Chicago Fire | New England Revolution | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.9 / 1.8 | 1.7 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 0.9 | 1 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/40/20% | 50/20/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.2 / 3.4 | 2.7 / 5.5 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0 | 2.6 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Chicago Fire 2–3–1 New England Revolution
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10/25 USA MLS | New England Revolution | 2-2 HT 1-0 | Chicago Fire |
| 07/09/25 USA MLS | Chicago Fire | 3-2 HT 2-0 | New England Revolution |
| 21/05/25 USA US Open Cup | New England Revolution | 1-3 HT 0-1 | Chicago Fire |
| 05/05/24 USA MLS | Chicago Fire | 0-1 HT 0-0 | New England Revolution |
| 23/03/24 USA MLS | New England Revolution | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Chicago Fire |
| 24/09/23 USA MLS | Chicago Fire | 2-2 HT 1-1 | New England Revolution |
Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference
Swipe the table sideways →
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 25 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 50 | 21 | 54 |
| 2 | Inter Miami CF | 25 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 61 | 46 | 45 |
| 3 | New England Revolution | 24 | 12 | 4 | 8 | 39 | 30 | 40 |
| 4 | Charlotte FC | 25 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 45 | 36 | 40 |
| 5 | Chicago Fire | 23 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 44 | 33 | 39 |
| 6 | Orlando City SC | 25 | 10 | 4 | 11 | 44 | 56 | 34 |
| 7 | New York City FC | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 39 | 33 | 32 |
| 8 | FC Cincinnati | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 52 | 59 | 32 |
| 9 | Philadelphia Union | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 41 | 39 | 30 |
| 10 | New York Red Bulls | 25 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 33 | 48 | 30 |
| 11 | DC United | 24 | 6 | 11 | 7 | 30 | 37 | 29 |
| 12 | Toronto FC | 25 | 6 | 11 | 8 | 38 | 46 | 29 |
| 13 | Columbus Crew | 25 | 6 | 5 | 14 | 35 | 42 | 23 |
| 14 | Atlanta United | 25 | 6 | 5 | 14 | 29 | 43 | 23 |
| 15 | CF Montreal | 25 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 31 | 51 | 21 |
Common opponents 2 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Chicago Fire | New England Revolution |
|---|---|---|
| Toronto FC | 4-4 D | 1-2 L |
| New York City FC | 1-3 L | 2-1 W |
| Record vs common | 0 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 0 D 1 L |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Chicago Fire
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/09 | Inter Miami CF USA MLS |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 5 | D |
| 06/09 | Toronto FC USA MLS |
1-2 | 4-4 | 3 | 4 | D |
| 29/08 | Seattle Sounders USA MLS |
1-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 1 | D |
| 23/08 | New York Red Bulls USA MLS |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 3 | D |
| 20/08 | Orlando City SC USA MLS |
1-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 17/08 | Portland Timbers USA MLS |
2-0 | 2-1 | 0 | 4 | W |
| 02/08 | Charlotte FC USA MLS |
1-1 | 2-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 26/07 | New York City FC USA MLS |
1-3 | 1-3 | 2 | 4 | L |
| 23/07 | Inter Miami CF USA MLS |
1-1 | 2-3 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 24/05 | Toronto FC USA MLS |
1-1 | 2-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
New England Revolution
Swipe the table sideways →
| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/09 | New York City FC USA MLS |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 2 | W |
| 06/09 | LA Galaxy USA MLS |
0-2 | 1-2 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 30/08 | Columbus Crew USA MLS |
2-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 2 | W |
| 23/08 | New York City FC USA MLS |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 2 | D |
| 20/08 | DC United USA MLS |
2-0 | 3-0 | 5 | 3 | W |
| 16/08 | Toronto FC USA MLS |
0-2 | 1-2 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 08/08 | Houston Dynamo USA MLS |
0-1 | 0-2 | 9 | 3 | L |
| 02/08 | CF Montreal USA MLS |
2-0 | 2-2 | 3 | 1 | D |
| 26/07 | Atlanta United USA MLS |
2-0 | 4-1 | 4 | 4 | W |
| 23/07 | Toronto FC USA MLS |
0-0 | 0-0 | 7 | 2 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Chicago Fire win (47%). Probabilities: Chicago Fire 47%, draw 25%, New England Revolution 28%.
How many goals are expected in Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution?
The model expects 3.33 goals (Chicago Fire 1.9 · New England Revolution 1.43), with a 51% chance of under 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Chicago Fire vs New England Revolution?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.