Prediction: San Diego FC vs Philadelphia Union
Team pages: San Diego FC · Philadelphia Union
| San Diego FC | Draw | Philadelphia Union | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 35% | 24% | 41% |
| Market | 34% | 25% | 41% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Philadelphia Union (rating 1497 vs 1559).
- High corners: 10.8 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| San Diego FC | Philadelphia Union | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.4 | 2.7 / 1.5 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.5 / 0.8 | 1.1 / 1.1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/40/40% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 4.6 | 3.4 / 6.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.8 / 0.5 | 4.7 / 0.4 |
Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 23 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 52 | 21 | 46 |
| 2 | Houston Dynamo | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 32 | 28 | 43 |
| 3 | FC Dallas | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 49 | 42 | 43 |
| 4 | San Jose Earthquakes | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 44 | 36 | 41 |
| 5 | St. Louis City SC | 25 | 11 | 8 | 6 | 42 | 35 | 41 |
| 6 | Los Angeles FC | 26 | 11 | 7 | 8 | 41 | 27 | 40 |
| 7 | Colorado Rapids | 25 | 11 | 2 | 12 | 33 | 32 | 35 |
| 8 | Portland Timbers | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | 47 | 47 | 32 |
| 9 | San Diego FC | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 42 | 37 | 30 |
| 10 | LA Galaxy | 26 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 31 | 40 | 30 |
| 11 | Real Salt Lake | 24 | 8 | 5 | 11 | 37 | 39 | 29 |
| 12 | Minnesota United | 25 | 7 | 8 | 10 | 37 | 43 | 29 |
| 13 | Seattle Sounders | 23 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 25 | 30 | 28 |
| 14 | Austin FC | 24 | 6 | 8 | 10 | 30 | 43 | 26 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 24 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 26 | 59 | 18 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
San Diego FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/09 | San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS |
1-3 | 2-3 | 1 | 10 | L |
| 06/09 | Orlando City SC USA MLS |
0-1 | 0-1 | 4 | 5 | L |
| 30/08 | LA Galaxy USA MLS |
1-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 23/08 | Colorado Rapids USA MLS |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 20/08 | Portland Timbers USA MLS |
1-1 | 1-3 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 16/08 | Los Angeles FC USA MLS |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 8 | W |
| 02/08 | Minnesota United USA MLS |
0-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 26/07 | FC Dallas USA MLS |
0-0 | 1-0 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 23/07 | Colorado Rapids USA MLS |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 24/05 | Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS |
0-2 | 2-4 | 2 | 6 | L |
Philadelphia Union
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/09 | FC Cincinnati USA MLS |
2-0 | 5-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 06/09 | CF Montreal USA MLS |
0-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 8 | W |
| 30/08 | New York Red Bulls USA MLS |
1-0 | 3-1 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 23/08 | Austin FC USA MLS |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 20/08 | Inter Miami CF USA MLS |
1-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 8 | D |
| 17/08 | New York City FC USA MLS |
0-2 | 3-2 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 02/08 | Atlanta United USA MLS |
0-1 | 3-2 | 12 | 6 | W |
| 26/07 | Seattle Sounders USA MLS |
1-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 1 | W |
| 23/07 | New York Red Bulls USA MLS |
1-1 | 3-1 | 8 | 3 | W |
| 25/05 | Inter Miami CF USA MLS |
4-4 | 4-6 | 2 | 9 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in San Diego FC vs Philadelphia Union?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Philadelphia Union win (41%). Probabilities: San Diego FC 34%, draw 25%, Philadelphia Union 41%.
How many goals are expected in San Diego FC vs Philadelphia Union?
The model expects 3.46 goals (San Diego FC 1.65 · Philadelphia Union 1.81), with a 50% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in San Diego FC vs Philadelphia Union?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.