Football · USA MLS · 14/09, 00:30

Prediction: Vancouver Whitecaps vs Austin FC

Team pages: Vancouver Whitecaps · Austin FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.02Total

Vancouver Whitecaps2.3

Austin FC0.73

1X2

73% 17% 10%

Vancouver Whitecaps Draw Austin FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 51%

Most likely score

2-0 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Vancouver Whitecaps 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLDDWLWWLW

Austin FC 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

LWLLLWDWDD

Head-to-head

Vancouver Whitecaps 3–3–0 Austin FC (6 last)

Austin FC0-0Vancouver Whitecaps
Vancouver Whitecaps5-1Austin FC
Austin FC0-1Vancouver Whitecaps
Vancouver Whitecaps0-0Austin FC
Vancouver Whitecaps2-1Austin FC
Austin FC0-0Vancouver Whitecaps

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Vancouver Whitecaps 1511 · Austin FC 1500

	Vancouver Whitecaps	Draw	Austin FC
Our model	72%	19%	9%
Market	74%	15%	11%

Estimated total (ours) 3.02 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Vancouver Whitecaps: 3-3-0.
High corners: 11 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Vancouver Whitecaps	Austin FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.1	1.1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.8	0.3 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	10/40/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 6.2	2 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.1	3.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.28

X6.25

28.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.75)1.95

2 (+1.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.95

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 05:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.25 → 1.28▲	Bet365 1.28
X	5.75 → 6.25▲	Pinn 6.34
2	9.50 → 8.50▼	Pinn 9.17 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 5.6% Pinnacle margin 5.1%

Time*	1	X	2
00:26 +11’	1.25	5.75	9.50
05:23 +2’	1.28▲	6.25▲	8.50▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
05:42 +11’	1.26	6.27	9.33
13:50 +7’	1.27▲	6.25▼	8.99▼
13:58 +116’	1.28▲	6.21▼	8.88▼
06:25 +76’	1.27▼	6.14▼	8.75▼
00:34 +6’	1.27▲	6.34▲	9.17▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Vancouver Whitecaps 3–3–0 Austin FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/05/25 USA MLS	Austin FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Vancouver Whitecaps
13/04/25 USA MLS	Vancouver Whitecaps	5-1 HT 2-0	Austin FC
01/09/24 USA MLS	Austin FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Vancouver Whitecaps
05/05/24 USA MLS	Vancouver Whitecaps	0-0 HT 0-0	Austin FC
13/07/23 USA MLS	Vancouver Whitecaps	2-1 HT 1-0	Austin FC
16/04/23 USA MLS	Austin FC	0-0 HT 0-0	Vancouver Whitecaps

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	23	14	4	5	52	21	46
2	Houston Dynamo	24	13	4	7	32	27	43
3	Los Angeles FC	25	11	7	7	40	24	40
4	FC Dallas	24	11	7	6	47	41	40
5	San Jose Earthquakes	24	11	5	8	43	36	38
6	St. Louis City SC	24	10	8	6	38	33	38
7	Colorado Rapids	24	10	2	12	32	32	32
8	Portland Timbers	24	9	5	10	46	45	32
9	San Diego FC	24	8	6	10	42	37	30
10	Real Salt Lake	23	8	5	10	37	37	29
11	Minnesota United	24	7	8	9	35	39	29
12	LA Galaxy	25	7	8	10	30	39	29
13	Seattle Sounders	22	7	6	9	24	29	27
14	Austin FC	24	6	8	10	30	43	26
15	Sporting Kansas City	23	4	3	16	23	58	15

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Vancouver Whitecaps	Austin FC
St. Louis City SC	1-3 L	0-3 L
FC Dallas	5-0 W	1-2 L
Houston Dynamo	0-1 L	0-3 L
Seattle Sounders	2-0 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Vancouver Whitecaps (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Vancouver Whitecaps

WLDDWLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/09	LA Galaxy USA MLS	1-0	3-0	7	4	W
06/09	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	1-3	1-3	6	7	L
30/08	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	1-0	3-0	4	4	W
23/08	FC Dallas USA MLS	4-0	5-0	9	6	W
20/08	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-1	0-1	8	3	L
17/08	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	0-0	2-0	8	3	W
02/08	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-1	1-1	11	2	D
26/07	Minnesota United USA MLS	0-0	0-0	2	3	D
23/07	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	2-3	3-4	3	6	L
24/05	San Diego FC USA MLS	2-0	4-2	4	6	W

Austin FC

LWLLLWDWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/09	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-1	1-1	8	2	D
06/09	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	0-1	1-1	7	2	D
30/08	Portland Timbers USA MLS	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
23/08	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	1-1	1-1	6	3	D
20/08	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	0-0	2-1	5	1	W
17/08	FC Dallas USA MLS	0-1	1-2	7	7	L
02/08	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-0	0-1	0	4	L
26/07	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-3	0-3	6	4	L
23/07	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-1	3-1	4	3	W
23/05	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-1	0-3	2	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Vancouver Whitecaps vs Austin FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Vancouver Whitecaps win (73%). Probabilities: Vancouver Whitecaps 73%, draw 17%, Austin FC 10%.

How many goals are expected in Vancouver Whitecaps vs Austin FC?

The model expects 3.02 goals (Vancouver Whitecaps 2.3 · Austin FC 0.73), with a 53% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Vancouver Whitecaps vs Austin FC?

The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-0.