Football · USA MLS · 13/09, 03:30

Prediction: Real Salt Lake vs New York City FC

Team pages: Real Salt Lake · New York City FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.96Total

Real Salt Lake1.78

New York City FC1.18

1X2

51% 25% 24%

Real Salt Lake Draw New York City FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Real Salt Lake 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

WDLLDDLLLD

New York City FC 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

DLWWDLLDDD

Head-to-head

Real Salt Lake 2–2–2 New York City FC (6 last)

Real Salt Lake2-2New York City FC
Real Salt Lake0-0New York City FC
New York City FC6-0Real Salt Lake
Real Salt Lake3-1New York City FC
New York City FC4-0Real Salt Lake
Real Salt Lake2-1New York City FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Real Salt Lake 1480 · New York City FC 1481

	Real Salt Lake	Draw	New York City FC
Our model	50%	25%	24%
Market	51%	25%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 2.96 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Real Salt Lake	New York City FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.8	1.3 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	1.1 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 4.9	1.2 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.1 / 0.1	5.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.83

X3.75

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:25

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:20 +5’	1.83	3.75	3.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Real Salt Lake 2–2–2 New York City FC

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
24/01/25 World Club Friendlies	Real Salt Lake	2-2	New York City FC
11/06/23 USA MLS	Real Salt Lake	0-0 HT 0-0	New York City FC
17/04/22 USA MLS	New York City FC	6-0 HT 3-0	Real Salt Lake
04/08/19 USA MLS	Real Salt Lake	3-1 HT 1-1	New York City FC
12/04/18 USA MLS	New York City FC	4-0 HT 3-0	Real Salt Lake
18/05/17 USA MLS	Real Salt Lake	2-1 HT 1-1	New York City FC

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	22	13	4	5	49	21	43
2	Houston Dynamo	23	12	4	7	30	26	40
3	Los Angeles FC	24	10	7	7	38	24	37
4	FC Dallas	23	10	7	6	45	40	37
5	St. Louis City SC	23	10	7	6	36	31	37
6	San Jose Earthquakes	23	10	5	8	40	34	35
7	Colorado Rapids	23	10	1	12	31	31	31
8	Portland Timbers	23	9	4	10	44	43	31
9	San Diego FC	23	8	6	9	40	34	30
10	Real Salt Lake	22	8	5	9	36	35	29
11	Minnesota United	23	7	8	8	34	37	29
12	LA Galaxy	24	7	8	9	30	36	29
13	Seattle Sounders	22	7	6	9	24	29	27
14	Austin FC	23	6	7	10	29	42	25
15	Sporting Kansas City	23	4	3	16	23	58	15

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Real Salt Lake

WDLLDDLLLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/09	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	1-2	2-2	5	3	D
30/08	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-0	0-1	1	8	L
23/08	Orlando City SC USA MLS	1-0	1-2	4	4	L
20/08	FC Dallas USA MLS	1-3	3-4	6	6	L
16/08	Minnesota United USA MLS	0-0	1-1	7	4	D
02/08	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-0	1-1	4	6	D
26/07	Portland Timbers USA MLS	1-0	1-2	5	4	L
23/07	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-2	1-3	12	0	L
24/05	Minnesota United USA MLS	1-0	1-1	3	2	D
17/05	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	1-1	2-1	2	5	W

New York City FC

DLWWDLLDDD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
05/09	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-0	0-0	3	6	D
30/08	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-0	1-1	2	6	D
23/08	New England Revolution USA MLS	1-1	1-1	4	2	D
20/08	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	1-1	1-2	5	6	L
17/08	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	2-0	2-3	8	7	L
01/08	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-1	1-1	3	6	D
26/07	Chicago Fire USA MLS	3-1	3-1	1	4	W
23/07	Columbus Crew USA MLS	1-0	2-1	0	5	W
24/05	Nashville SC USA MLS	1-1	1-2	3	3	L
17/05	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-1	1-1	3	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Real Salt Lake vs New York City FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Real Salt Lake win (51%). Probabilities: Real Salt Lake 51%, draw 25%, New York City FC 24%.

How many goals are expected in Real Salt Lake vs New York City FC?

The model expects 2.96 goals (Real Salt Lake 1.78 · New York City FC 1.18), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Real Salt Lake vs New York City FC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.