Football · USA MLS · 18/10, 01:30

Prediction: Atlanta United vs Inter Miami CF

Team pages: Atlanta United · Inter Miami CF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.69Total

Atlanta United1.54

Inter Miami CF2.15

1X2

27% 23% 51%

Atlanta United Draw Inter Miami CF

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Atlanta United 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WWWLDLDWDL

Inter Miami CF 2-5-3 (W-D-L)

LDLWDDDDLW

Head-to-head

Atlanta United 2–1–3 Inter Miami CF (6 last)

Inter Miami CF2-2Atlanta United
Inter Miami CF4-0Atlanta United
Atlanta United1-2Inter Miami CF
Inter Miami CF2-3Atlanta United
Atlanta United2-1Inter Miami CF
Inter Miami CF2-1Atlanta United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atlanta United 1493 · Inter Miami CF 1539

	Atlanta United	Draw	Inter Miami CF
Our model	27%	22%	51%
Market	27%	23%	51%

Estimated total (ours) 3.69 goals · Bet365 line 3.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Inter Miami CF (rating 1493 vs 1539).
H2H favours Inter Miami CF: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atlanta United	Inter Miami CF
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.5	2.3 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	1.2 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	40/50/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.6 / 5.1	1.8 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0	4.8 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

13.50

X4.10

21.83

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.98

2 (-0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 3.752.00

Under 3.751.80

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 19:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	1.83 → 1.83	Bet365 1.83

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.5%

Time*	1	X	2
19:17 +24’	3.50	4.10	1.83

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Atlanta United 2–1–3 Inter Miami CF

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/09/26 USA MLS	Inter Miami CF	2-2 HT 2-1	Atlanta United
12/10/25 USA MLS	Inter Miami CF	4-0 HT 1-0	Atlanta United
17/03/25 USA MLS	Atlanta United	1-2 HT 1-1	Inter Miami CF
10/11/24 USA MLS Play-Offs	Inter Miami CF	2-3 HT 1-2	Atlanta United
03/11/24 USA MLS Play-Offs	Atlanta United	2-1 HT 0-1	Inter Miami CF
26/10/24 USA MLS Play-Offs	Inter Miami CF	2-1 HT 1-1	Atlanta United

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	28	19	6	3	59	22	63
2	Inter Miami CF	28	13	10	5	68	50	49
3	Chicago Fire	28	14	6	8	51	40	48
4	New England Revolution	28	14	4	10	45	39	46
5	Charlotte FC	28	13	7	8	50	40	46
6	Philadelphia Union	28	12	6	10	56	45	42
7	Orlando City SC	28	11	4	13	51	66	37
8	New York Red Bulls	28	10	6	12	38	52	36
9	FC Cincinnati	27	9	9	9	58	65	36
10	New York City FC	28	8	9	11	42	38	33
11	Toronto FC	28	7	11	10	41	52	32
12	DC United	27	6	12	9	34	46	30
13	Columbus Crew	28	8	5	15	41	46	29
14	Atlanta United	28	7	6	15	33	48	27
15	CF Montreal	28	6	6	16	35	56	24

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atlanta United

WWWLDLDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	0-0	1-3	5	5	L
27/09	New York City FC USA MLS	1-1	2-2	4	2	D
20/09	Portland Timbers USA MLS	1-0	1-0	3	4	W
13/09	DC United USA MLS	0-0	0-0	8	5	D
10/09	Orlando City SC USA MLS	1-1	2-3	5	3	L
06/09	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-2	2-2	6	9	D
30/08	Charlotte FC USA MLS	0-1	0-2	11	2	L
24/08	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	2-0	2-1	2	3	W
20/08	Minnesota United USA MLS	1-0	2-1	4	7	W
16/08	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-1	2-1	3	4	W

Inter Miami CF

LDLWDDDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
11/10	DC United USA MLS	2-0	4-0	4	0	W
28/09	Columbus Crew USA MLS	1-1	1-2	1	11	L
21/09	San Diego FC USA MLS	1-1	2-2	4	3	D
13/09	Nashville SC USA MLS	1-1	2-2	4	5	D
10/09	Chicago Fire USA MLS	0-1	1-1	5	5	D
06/09	Atlanta United USA MLS	2-1	2-2	6	9	D
30/08	CF Montreal USA MLS	2-1	7-1	6	3	W
23/08	Toronto FC USA MLS	0-0	1-2	3	3	L
20/08	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	2-1	2-2	1	8	D
16/08	Nashville SC USA MLS	1-1	1-4	4	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atlanta United vs Inter Miami CF?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Inter Miami CF win (51%). Probabilities: Atlanta United 27%, draw 23%, Inter Miami CF 51%.

How many goals are expected in Atlanta United vs Inter Miami CF?

The model expects 3.69 goals (Atlanta United 1.54 · Inter Miami CF 2.15), with a 54% chance of under 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Atlanta United vs Inter Miami CF?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.