Football · USA MLS · 17/07, 01:30
Prediction: CF Montreal vs Toronto FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.51Total
CF Montreal2.1
Toronto FC1.41
1X2
CF Montreal
Draw
Toronto FC
Markets
Over 3 goals 52%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-1Most likely total: 3 goals
Recent form · 10 last
CF Montreal
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Toronto FC
1-4-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
CF Montreal
1–2–3
Toronto FC
(6 last)
52%1
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · CF Montreal 1522 · Toronto FC 1434
| CF Montreal | Draw | Toronto FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 52% | 23% | 25% |
| Market | 51% | 25% | 24% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.51 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
Expected goals3.51CF Montreal 2.1 · Toronto FC 1.41
Over / Under 3Over 3 · 52%
BTTSYes · 59%
Most likely total3 goals
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours CF Montreal (rating 1522 vs 1434).
- H2H favours Toronto FC: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 10.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| CF Montreal | Toronto FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 1.5 | 1.7 / 2.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.6 | 0.4 / 0.7 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/20/30% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 6 | 1.5 / 5.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.2 / 0.2 | 5.1 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · CF Montreal 1–2–3 Toronto FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/25 USA MLS | Toronto FC | 1-1 HT 0-0 | CF Montreal |
| 17/05/25 USA MLS | CF Montreal | 1-6 HT 0-3 | Toronto FC |
| 01/05/25 Canada Championships | Toronto FC | 2-2 HT 1-0 | CF Montreal |
| 21/07/24 USA MLS | CF Montreal | 0-1 HT 0-1 | Toronto FC |
| 19/05/24 USA MLS | Toronto FC | 5-1 HT 3-0 | CF Montreal |
| 21/08/23 USA MLS | Toronto FC | 2-3 HT 0-2 | CF Montreal |
Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 14 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 31 | 11 | 33 |
| 2 | Inter Miami CF | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 39 | 28 | 31 |
| 3 | Chicago Fire | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 27 | 16 | 26 |
| 4 | New England Revolution | 14 | 8 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 18 | 25 |
| 5 | New York Red Bulls | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 25 | 32 | 22 |
| 6 | Charlotte FC | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 24 | 23 | 21 |
| 7 | FC Cincinnati | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 36 | 37 | 20 |
| 8 | New York City FC | 15 | 5 | 4 | 6 | 25 | 21 | 19 |
| 9 | DC United | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 21 | 25 | 18 |
| 10 | Columbus Crew | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | 21 | 23 | 16 |
| 11 | CF Montreal | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 22 | 31 | 14 |
| 12 | Orlando City SC | 15 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 23 | 44 | 14 |
| 13 | Toronto FC | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 22 | 29 | 14 |
| 14 | Atlanta United | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 14 | 23 | 11 |
| 15 | Philadelphia Union | 15 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 18 | 30 | 7 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | CF Montreal | Toronto FC |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Fire | 0-2 L | 1-2 L |
| Atlanta United | 1-3 L | 1-2 L |
| Philadelphia Union | 1-2 L | 3-3 D |
| Record vs common | 0 W 0 D 3 L | 0 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Toronto FC (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
CF Montreal
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/07 | Vancouver FC Canada Championships |
0-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 24/05 | DC United USA MLS |
1-2 | 4-4 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 16/05 | Chicago Fire USA MLS |
0-1 | 0-2 | 16 | 7 | L |
| 14/05 | Portland Timbers USA MLS |
2-1 | 2-2 | 6 | 3 | D |
| 09/05 | Orlando City SC USA MLS |
0-0 | 2-0 | 11 | 3 | W |
| 07/05 | Calgary Blizzard SC Canada Championships |
2-0 | 5-0 | 11 | 2 | W |
| 03/05 | Atlanta United USA MLS |
1-2 | 1-3 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 25/04 | New York City FC USA MLS |
1-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 9 | W |
| 18/04 | New York Red Bulls USA MLS |
2-0 | 4-1 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 11/04 | Philadelphia Union USA MLS |
1-0 | 1-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
Toronto FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05 | Chicago Fire USA MLS |
1-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 7 | L |
| 17/05 | Charlotte FC USA MLS |
1-2 | 1-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 09/05 | Inter Miami CF USA MLS |
0-1 | 2-4 | 4 | 3 | L |
| 06/05 | Atletico Ottawa Canada Championships |
1-0 | 1-3 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 02/05 | San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS |
1-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 4 | D |
| 25/04 | Atlanta United USA MLS |
0-0 | 1-2 | 8 | 2 | L |
| 23/04 | Philadelphia Union USA MLS |
0-1 | 3-3 | 2 | 9 | D |
| 18/04 | Austin FC USA MLS |
0-1 | 3-3 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 11/04 | FC Cincinnati USA MLS |
0-0 | 1-1 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 04/04 | Colorado Rapids USA MLS |
0-0 | 3-2 | 7 | 10 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in CF Montreal vs Toronto FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a CF Montreal win (52%). Probabilities: CF Montreal 52%, draw 24%, Toronto FC 24%.
How many goals are expected in CF Montreal vs Toronto FC?
The model expects 3.51 goals (CF Montreal 2.1 · Toronto FC 1.41), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in CF Montreal vs Toronto FC?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.