Football · USA MLS · 26/07, 03:30

Prediction: San Diego FC vs FC Dallas

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.63Total

San Diego FC2.01

FC Dallas1.62

1X2

46% 24% 30%

San Diego FC Draw FC Dallas

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

San Diego FC 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLLDDWDL

FC Dallas 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDDLLWWLWW

Head-to-head

San Diego FC 2–1–0 FC Dallas (3 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · San Diego FC 1448 · FC Dallas 1544

	San Diego FC	Draw	FC Dallas
Our model	46%	23%	31%
Market	45%	25%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.63 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Dallas (rating 1448 vs 1544).
H2H favours San Diego FC: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	San Diego FC	FC Dallas
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 2.2	2 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1.4	1.1 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.5	1.6 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.6	4.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.80

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.80

2 (+0.25)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.82

Under 3.251.98

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.6

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:09 +1’	2.05	3.80	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · San Diego FC 2–1–0 FC Dallas

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
15/03/26 USA MLS	FC Dallas	3-3 HT 1-2	San Diego FC
29/06/25 USA MLS	FC Dallas	2-3 HT 1-1	San Diego FC
04/05/25 USA MLS	San Diego FC	5-0 HT 2-0	FC Dallas

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	14	10	2	2	34	12	32
2	San Jose Earthquakes	15	10	2	3	34	15	32
3	Los Angeles FC	16	8	3	5	27	17	27
4	Real Salt Lake	14	8	2	4	26	19	26
5	FC Dallas	15	7	4	4	30	22	25
6	Seattle Sounders	14	7	3	4	18	16	24
7	Houston Dynamo	14	7	1	6	19	23	22
8	Minnesota United	15	6	4	5	18	22	22
9	LA Galaxy	16	5	5	6	22	25	20
10	St. Louis City SC	15	5	4	6	19	22	19
11	Portland Timbers	15	5	2	8	27	29	17
12	San Diego FC	15	4	5	6	30	27	17
13	Colorado Rapids	15	5	1	9	25	24	16
14	Austin FC	15	3	5	7	19	31	14
15	Sporting Kansas City	15	3	2	10	16	39	11

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	San Diego FC	FC Dallas
Vancouver Whitecaps	2-4 L	2-3 L
Seattle Sounders	1-1 D	1-2 L
Real Salt Lake	2-4 L	3-1 W
Minnesota United	1-2 L	0-1 L
San Jose Earthquakes	0-3 L	3-2 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 4 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: FC Dallas (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

San Diego FC

LLLLLDDWDL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/05	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-2	2-4	2	6	L
17/05	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	1-1	3-3	7	4	D
14/05	Austin FC USA MLS	2-0	5-0	6	1	W
10/05	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-0	1-1	2	5	D
03/05	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	1-0	2-2	2	5	D
26/04	Portland Timbers USA MLS	1-1	1-2	6	3	L
23/04	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-1	0-1	3	7	L
19/04	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	1-4	2-4	8	2	L
12/04	Minnesota United USA MLS	1-2	1-2	4	4	L
05/04	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	0-3	0-3	5	6	L

FC Dallas

WDDLLWWLWW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/05	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	2-1	2-1	3	6	W
17/05	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	1-1	3-2	4	6	W
14/05	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	1-2	2-3	6	7	L
10/05	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	2-0	3-1	4	4	W
03/05	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-0	2-0	4	2	W
26/04	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-2	1-2	7	5	L
23/04	Minnesota United USA MLS	0-1	0-1	4	5	L
19/04	LA Galaxy USA MLS	2-2	2-2	4	2	D
12/04	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
05/04	DC United USA MLS	2-0	4-0	3	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in San Diego FC vs FC Dallas?

According to our model, the most likely result is a San Diego FC win (46%). Probabilities: San Diego FC 46%, draw 24%, FC Dallas 30%.

How many goals are expected in San Diego FC vs FC Dallas?

The model expects 3.63 goals (San Diego FC 2.01 · FC Dallas 1.62), with a 54% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in San Diego FC vs FC Dallas?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.