Football · USA MLS · 26/07, 04:30

Prediction: Portland Timbers vs Real Salt Lake

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.63Total

Portland Timbers1.87

Real Salt Lake1.76

1X2

40% 24% 36%

Portland Timbers Draw Real Salt Lake

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Portland Timbers 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWLWLWDLLW

Real Salt Lake 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WWLLWLWWDW

Head-to-head

Portland Timbers 2–2–2 Real Salt Lake (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Portland Timbers 1497 · Real Salt Lake 1505

	Portland Timbers	Draw	Real Salt Lake
Our model	40%	24%	36%
Market	40%	25%	35%

Estimated total (ours) 3.63 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Portland Timbers	Real Salt Lake
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.7	2.1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 1.2	1.1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/10/50%	50/40/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.5	1.7 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0	3.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.75

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.55

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.3%

Time*	1	X	2
00:09 +1’	2.35	3.75	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Portland Timbers 2–2–2 Real Salt Lake

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Date	Home	Score	Away
02/05/26 USA MLS	Real Salt Lake	2-0 HT 2-0	Portland Timbers
23/10/25 USA MLS Play-Offs	Portland Timbers	3-1 HT 2-1	Real Salt Lake
17/07/25 USA MLS	Portland Timbers	0-1 HT 0-0	Real Salt Lake
15/05/25 USA MLS	Real Salt Lake	0-0 HT 0-0	Portland Timbers
22/09/24 USA MLS	Real Salt Lake	3-3 HT 2-0	Portland Timbers
14/07/24 USA MLS	Portland Timbers	3-0 HT 1-0	Real Salt Lake

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	14	10	2	2	34	12	32
2	San Jose Earthquakes	15	10	2	3	34	15	32
3	Los Angeles FC	16	8	3	5	27	17	27
4	Real Salt Lake	14	8	2	4	26	19	26
5	FC Dallas	15	7	4	4	30	22	25
6	Seattle Sounders	14	7	3	4	18	16	24
7	Houston Dynamo	14	7	1	6	19	23	22
8	Minnesota United	15	6	4	5	18	22	22
9	LA Galaxy	16	5	5	6	22	25	20
10	St. Louis City SC	15	5	4	6	19	22	19
11	Portland Timbers	15	5	2	8	27	29	17
12	San Diego FC	15	4	5	6	30	27	17
13	Colorado Rapids	15	5	1	9	25	24	16
14	Austin FC	15	3	5	7	19	31	14
15	Sporting Kansas City	15	3	2	10	16	39	11

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Portland Timbers	Real Salt Lake
Inter Miami CF	0-2 L	0-2 L
Sporting Kansas City	6-0 W	3-1 W
San Diego FC	2-1 W	4-2 W
Minnesota United	0-2 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Real Salt Lake (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Portland Timbers

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-0	5-1	8	2	W
24/05	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	1-3	1-3	4	5	L
18/05	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	0-2	0-2	5	4	L
14/05	CF Montreal USA MLS	1-2	2-2	9	3	D
10/05	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	4-0	6-0	4	6	W
02/05	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-2	0-2	2	3	L
26/04	San Diego FC USA MLS	1-1	2-1	6	3	W
19/04	Minnesota United USA MLS	0-1	0-2	4	2	L
11/04	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	1-0	2-1	1	4	W
05/04	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	2-1	2-3	2	2	L

Real Salt Lake

WWLLWLWWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/07	Burnley World Club Friendlies	1-0	4-1	4	4	W
24/05	Minnesota United USA MLS	1-0	1-1	3	2	D
17/05	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	1-1	2-1	2	5	W
14/05	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-0	3-0	4	1	W
10/05	FC Dallas USA MLS	0-2	1-3	6	4	L
02/05	Portland Timbers USA MLS	2-0	2-0	6	3	W
27/04	LA Galaxy USA MLS	1-1	1-2	0	8	L
23/04	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	0-0	0-2	2	6	L
19/04	San Diego FC USA MLS	4-1	4-2	1	2	W
04/04	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	1-0	3-1	7	1	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Portland Timbers vs Real Salt Lake?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Portland Timbers win (40%). Probabilities: Portland Timbers 40%, draw 24%, Real Salt Lake 36%.

How many goals are expected in Portland Timbers vs Real Salt Lake?

The model expects 3.63 goals (Portland Timbers 1.87 · Real Salt Lake 1.76), with a 53% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Portland Timbers vs Real Salt Lake?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.