Football · USA MLS · 26/07, 02:30

Prediction: St. Louis City SC vs Colorado Rapids

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.77Total

St. Louis City SC1.67

Colorado Rapids1.1

1X2

50% 26% 24%

St. Louis City SC Draw Colorado Rapids

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

St. Louis City SC 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Colorado Rapids 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

St. Louis City SC 2–1–3 Colorado Rapids (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · St. Louis City SC 1518 · Colorado Rapids 1461

	St. Louis City SC	Draw	Colorado Rapids
Our model	49%	27%	24%
Market	50%	25%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.77 goals · Bet365 line 3 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours St. Louis City SC (rating 1518 vs 1461).
H2H favours Colorado Rapids: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 11 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	St. Louis City SC	Colorado Rapids
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.6	0.8 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5	2.4 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.9 / 0.4	6.1 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.75

23.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 2.6

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.4%

Time*	1	X	2
00:05 +4’	1.85	3.75	3.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · St. Louis City SC 2–1–3 Colorado Rapids

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/26 USA MLS	Colorado Rapids	0-1 HT 0-1	St. Louis City SC
25/05/25 USA MLS	Colorado Rapids	1-0 HT 1-0	St. Louis City SC
23/02/25 USA MLS	St. Louis City SC	0-0 HT 0-0	Colorado Rapids
08/07/24 USA MLS	Colorado Rapids	4-1 HT 2-1	St. Louis City SC
20/06/24 USA MLS	St. Louis City SC	0-3 HT 0-1	Colorado Rapids
02/07/23 USA MLS	St. Louis City SC	2-0 HT 2-0	Colorado Rapids

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	14	10	2	2	34	12	32
2	San Jose Earthquakes	15	10	2	3	34	15	32
3	Los Angeles FC	16	8	3	5	27	17	27
4	Real Salt Lake	14	8	2	4	26	19	26
5	FC Dallas	15	7	4	4	30	22	25
6	Seattle Sounders	14	7	3	4	18	16	24
7	Houston Dynamo	14	7	1	6	19	23	22
8	Minnesota United	15	6	4	5	18	22	22
9	LA Galaxy	16	5	5	6	22	25	20
10	St. Louis City SC	15	5	4	6	19	22	19
11	Portland Timbers	15	5	2	8	27	29	17
12	San Diego FC	15	4	5	6	30	27	17
13	Colorado Rapids	15	5	1	9	25	24	16
14	Austin FC	15	3	5	7	19	31	14
15	Sporting Kansas City	15	3	2	10	16	39	11

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	St. Louis City SC	Colorado Rapids
Houston Dynamo	2-2 D	0-1 L
Los Angeles FC	2-1 W	0-0 D
San Jose Earthquakes	2-3 L	2-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: St. Louis City SC (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

St. Louis City SC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	2-1	3-2	5	3	W
23/05	Austin FC USA MLS	1-0	3-0	2	2	W
20/05	Houston Dynamo USA US Open Cup	1-2	2-2	3	8	D
17/05	DC United USA MLS	0-0	1-1	8	8	D
14/05	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	1-0	2-1	2	6	W
10/05	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	1-0	1-0	1	10	W
03/05	Austin FC USA MLS	0-0	0-2	6	6	L
30/04	Chicago Fire USA US Open Cup	0-0	2-1	5	5	W
26/04	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	0-1	2-3	10	5	L
19/04	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	0-2	1-4	8	0	L

Colorado Rapids

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/07	Juarez FC Club Friendly List	1-0	1-1	–	–	D
24/05	FC Dallas USA MLS	1-2	1-2	5	6	L
21/05	San Jose Earthquakes USA US Open Cup	2-0	2-0	5	5	W
17/05	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	1-1	1-2	6	5	L
14/05	Minnesota United USA MLS	1-0	1-0	5	9	W
10/05	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-1	0-1	11	10	L
03/05	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-0	0-1	5	6	L
30/04	Colorado Switchbacks FC USA US Open Cup	1-1	1-1	7	9	D
26/04	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	1-2	1-3	3	2	L
23/04	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-0	0-0	3	6	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in St. Louis City SC vs Colorado Rapids?

According to our model, the most likely result is a St. Louis City SC win (50%). Probabilities: St. Louis City SC 50%, draw 26%, Colorado Rapids 24%.

How many goals are expected in St. Louis City SC vs Colorado Rapids?

The model expects 2.77 goals (St. Louis City SC 1.67 · Colorado Rapids 1.1), with a 56% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in St. Louis City SC vs Colorado Rapids?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.