Football · USA MLS · 26/07, 02:30

Prediction: Houston Dynamo vs Austin FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.06Total

Houston Dynamo2.06

Austin FC1.01

1X2

61% 22% 17%

Houston Dynamo Draw Austin FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Houston Dynamo 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WLDWWLWDDW

Austin FC 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LLDLWWDLLL

Head-to-head

Houston Dynamo 2–1–3 Austin FC (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Houston Dynamo 1548 · Austin FC 1453

	Houston Dynamo	Draw	Austin FC
Our model	61%	23%	17%
Market	61%	22%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 3.06 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Houston Dynamo (rating 1548 vs 1453).
H2H favours Austin FC: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 10.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Houston Dynamo	Austin FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.1	1.3 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/60/10%	50/10/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.1	2 / 3.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5 / 0.6	5.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.53

X4.20

25.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.85

2 (+1)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.05

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	5.50 → 5.50	Bet365 5.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.2%

Time*	1	X	2
00:06 +3’	1.53	4.20	5.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Houston Dynamo 2–1–3 Austin FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/04/26 USA MLS	Austin FC	2-0 HT 2-0	Houston Dynamo
10/08/25 USA MLS	Austin FC	2-2 HT 2-0	Houston Dynamo
22/05/25 USA US Open Cup	Austin FC	3-1 HT 1-0	Houston Dynamo
27/04/25 USA MLS	Houston Dynamo	2-0 HT 0-0	Austin FC
22/09/24 USA MLS	Austin FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Houston Dynamo
16/05/24 USA MLS	Austin FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Houston Dynamo

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	14	10	2	2	34	12	32
2	San Jose Earthquakes	15	10	2	3	34	15	32
3	Los Angeles FC	16	8	3	5	27	17	27
4	Real Salt Lake	14	8	2	4	26	19	26
5	FC Dallas	15	7	4	4	30	22	25
6	Seattle Sounders	14	7	3	4	18	16	24
7	Houston Dynamo	14	7	1	6	19	23	22
8	Minnesota United	15	6	4	5	18	22	22
9	LA Galaxy	16	5	5	6	22	25	20
10	St. Louis City SC	15	5	4	6	19	22	19
11	Portland Timbers	15	5	2	8	27	29	17
12	San Diego FC	15	4	5	6	30	27	17
13	Colorado Rapids	15	5	1	9	25	24	16
14	Austin FC	15	3	5	7	19	31	14
15	Sporting Kansas City	15	3	2	10	16	39	11

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Houston Dynamo	Austin FC
LA Galaxy	1-1 D	1-2 L
St. Louis City SC	2-2 D	0-3 L
Louisville City FC	1-1 D	1-2 L
San Diego FC	1-0 W	0-5 L
Record vs common	1 W 3 D 0 L	0 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Houston Dynamo (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Houston Dynamo

WLDWWLWDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/07	America de Cali Club Friendly List	1-1	2-1	–	–	W
24/05	LA Galaxy USA MLS	1-1	1-1	2	4	D
20/05	St. Louis City SC USA US Open Cup	2-1	2-2	5	8	D
17/05	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-0	1-0	4	6	W
14/05	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-0	0-3	1	1	L
11/05	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	2-1	4-1	3	7	W
03/05	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-0	1-0	6	6	W
30/04	Louisville City FC USA US Open Cup	0-0	1-1	10	5	D
26/04	Austin FC USA MLS	0-2	0-2	5	6	L
23/04	San Diego FC USA MLS	1-0	1-0	1	7	W

Austin FC

LLDLWWDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/05	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-1	0-3	2	2	L
17/05	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	1-0	1-2	3	7	L
14/05	San Diego FC USA MLS	0-2	0-5	3	1	L
11/05	Minnesota United USA MLS	1-0	2-2	4	7	D
03/05	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-0	2-0	4	6	W
26/04	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	2-0	2-0	3	6	W
23/04	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	1-0	1-5	1	3	L
18/04	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-0	3-3	5	7	D
15/04	Louisville City FC USA US Open Cup	0-2	1-2	7	6	L
11/04	LA Galaxy USA MLS	0-1	1-2	6	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Houston Dynamo vs Austin FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Houston Dynamo win (61%). Probabilities: Houston Dynamo 61%, draw 22%, Austin FC 17%.

How many goals are expected in Houston Dynamo vs Austin FC?

The model expects 3.06 goals (Houston Dynamo 2.06 · Austin FC 1.01), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Houston Dynamo vs Austin FC?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.