Prediction: St. Louis City SC vs Sporting Kansas City
| St. Louis City SC | Draw | Sporting Kansas City | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 68% | 19% | 14% |
| Market | 67% | 19% | 13% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours St. Louis City SC (rating 1529 vs 1445).
- H2H favours Sporting Kansas City: 2-3-1.
- Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| St. Louis City SC | Sporting Kansas City | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1.4 | 0.9 / 2.8 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.5 | 0.4 / 1.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 10/30/60% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 5 | 1.3 / 3.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.2 / 0.5 | 3.2 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · St. Louis City SC 1–3–2 Sporting Kansas City
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/05/25 USA MLS | St. Louis City SC | 2-2 HT 2-0 | Sporting Kansas City |
| 06/04/25 USA MLS | Sporting Kansas City | 2-0 HT 0-0 | St. Louis City SC |
| 29/09/24 USA MLS | St. Louis City SC | 3-1 HT 1-0 | Sporting Kansas City |
| 21/07/24 USA MLS | Sporting Kansas City | 1-1 HT 0-1 | St. Louis City SC |
| 21/04/24 USA MLS | Sporting Kansas City | 3-3 HT 1-2 | St. Louis City SC |
| 05/11/23 USA MLS | Sporting Kansas City | 2-1 HT 1-0 | St. Louis City SC |
Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 34 | 12 | 32 |
| 2 | San Jose Earthquakes | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 34 | 15 | 32 |
| 3 | Real Salt Lake | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 26 | 19 | 26 |
| 4 | FC Dallas | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 30 | 22 | 25 |
| 5 | Los Angeles FC | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 17 | 24 |
| 6 | Seattle Sounders | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 11 | 24 |
| 7 | Houston Dynamo | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 23 | 22 |
| 8 | Minnesota United | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 22 | 22 |
| 9 | LA Galaxy | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 22 | 20 |
| 10 | San Diego FC | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 30 | 27 | 17 |
| 11 | Colorado Rapids | 15 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 25 | 24 | 16 |
| 12 | St. Louis City SC | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 20 | 16 |
| 13 | Portland Timbers | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 22 | 28 | 14 |
| 14 | Austin FC | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 19 | 31 | 14 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 14 | 36 | 11 |
Common opponents 4 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | St. Louis City SC | Sporting Kansas City |
|---|---|---|
| Austin FC | 3-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Chicago Fire | 2-1 W | 0-5 L |
| San Jose Earthquakes | 2-3 L | 1-3 L |
| Seattle Sounders | 1-4 L | 1-1 D |
| Record vs common | 2 W 0 D 2 L | 1 W 1 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: St. Louis City SC (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
St. Louis City SC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05 | Austin FC USA MLS |
1-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 2 | W |
| 20/05 | Houston Dynamo USA US Open Cup |
1-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 8 | D |
| 17/05 | DC United USA MLS |
0-0 | 1-1 | 8 | 8 | D |
| 14/05 | Los Angeles FC USA MLS |
1-0 | 2-1 | 2 | 6 | W |
| 10/05 | Colorado Rapids USA MLS |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 10 | W |
| 03/05 | Austin FC USA MLS |
0-0 | 0-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
| 30/04 | Chicago Fire USA US Open Cup |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 26/04 | San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS |
0-1 | 2-3 | 10 | 5 | L |
| 19/04 | Seattle Sounders USA MLS |
0-2 | 1-4 | 8 | 0 | L |
| 16/04 | Tulsa USA US Open Cup |
2-0 | 4-0 | 5 | 7 | W |
Sporting Kansas City
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05 | New York Red Bulls USA MLS |
0-2 | 1-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 17/05 | Austin FC USA MLS |
0-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 7 | W |
| 14/05 | LA Galaxy USA MLS |
2-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 3 | W |
| 10/05 | Portland Timbers USA MLS |
0-4 | 0-6 | 4 | 6 | L |
| 02/05 | Seattle Sounders USA MLS |
1-1 | 1-1 | 4 | 2 | D |
| 26/04 | Chicago Fire USA MLS |
0-0 | 0-5 | 2 | 1 | L |
| 18/04 | Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS |
0-3 | 0-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 15/04 | Colorado Switchbacks FC USA US Open Cup |
0-2 | 0-3 | 1 | 5 | L |
| 12/04 | San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS |
1-1 | 1-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 04/04 | Real Salt Lake USA MLS |
0-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 1 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in St. Louis City SC vs Sporting Kansas City?
According to our model, the most likely result is a St. Louis City SC win (68%). Probabilities: St. Louis City SC 68%, draw 19%, Sporting Kansas City 13%.
How many goals are expected in St. Louis City SC vs Sporting Kansas City?
The model expects 3.61 goals (St. Louis City SC 2.53 · Sporting Kansas City 1.08), with a 54% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in St. Louis City SC vs Sporting Kansas City?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.