Prediction: LA Galaxy vs Los Angeles FC
| LA Galaxy | Draw | Los Angeles FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 37% | 25% | 38% |
| Market | 36% | 26% | 38% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours LA Galaxy (rating 1520 vs 1474).
- H2H favours Los Angeles FC: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| LA Galaxy | Los Angeles FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.5 | 1.1 / 2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.8 | 0.3 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 20/50/30% | 10/50/40% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 4.3 | 1.7 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.5 / 0 | 4.5 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · LA Galaxy 1–2–3 Los Angeles FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/07/25 USA MLS | Los Angeles FC | 3-3 HT 2-1 | LA Galaxy |
| 19/05/25 USA MLS | LA Galaxy | 2-2 HT 1-1 | Los Angeles FC |
| 15/09/24 USA MLS | LA Galaxy | 4-2 HT 0-2 | Los Angeles FC |
| 05/07/24 USA MLS | LA Galaxy | 1-2 HT 0-2 | Los Angeles FC |
| 07/04/24 USA MLS | Los Angeles FC | 2-1 HT 2-1 | LA Galaxy |
| 17/09/23 USA MLS | Los Angeles FC | 4-2 HT 2-1 | LA Galaxy |
Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 34 | 12 | 32 |
| 2 | San Jose Earthquakes | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 34 | 15 | 32 |
| 3 | Real Salt Lake | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 26 | 19 | 26 |
| 4 | FC Dallas | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 30 | 22 | 25 |
| 5 | Los Angeles FC | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 17 | 24 |
| 6 | Seattle Sounders | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 11 | 24 |
| 7 | Houston Dynamo | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 23 | 22 |
| 8 | Minnesota United | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 22 | 22 |
| 9 | LA Galaxy | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 22 | 20 |
| 10 | San Diego FC | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 30 | 27 | 17 |
| 11 | Colorado Rapids | 15 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 25 | 24 | 16 |
| 12 | St. Louis City SC | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 20 | 16 |
| 13 | Portland Timbers | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 22 | 28 | 14 |
| 14 | Austin FC | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 19 | 31 | 14 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 14 | 36 | 11 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | LA Galaxy | Los Angeles FC |
|---|---|---|
| Houston Dynamo | 1-1 D | 1-4 L |
| Seattle Sounders | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| Toluca | 0-3 L | 0-4 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 1 D 1 L | 1 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: LA Galaxy (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
LA Galaxy
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05 | Houston Dynamo USA MLS |
1-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 17/05 | Seattle Sounders USA MLS |
1-0 | 2-0 | 1 | 5 | W |
| 14/05 | Sporting Kansas City USA MLS |
0-2 | 1-3 | 8 | 3 | L |
| 10/05 | Atlanta United USA MLS |
0-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 03/05 | Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS |
0-0 | 1-1 | 1 | 10 | D |
| 27/04 | Real Salt Lake USA MLS |
1-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 8 | W |
| 23/04 | Columbus Crew USA MLS |
0-1 | 1-2 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 19/04 | FC Dallas USA MLS |
2-2 | 2-2 | 3 | 2 | D |
| 16/04 | Toluca CONCACAF Champions Cup |
0-1 | 0-3 | 3 | 2 | L |
| 11/04 | Austin FC USA MLS |
1-0 | 2-1 | 5 | 6 | W |
Los Angeles FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/05 | Seattle Sounders USA MLS |
0-0 | 1-0 | 7 | 0 | W |
| 18/05 | Nashville SC USA MLS |
1-2 | 2-3 | 11 | 5 | L |
| 14/05 | St. Louis City SC USA MLS |
0-1 | 1-2 | 8 | 6 | L |
| 11/05 | Houston Dynamo USA MLS |
1-2 | 1-4 | 10 | 7 | L |
| 07/05 | Toluca CONCACAF Champions Cup |
0-0 | 0-4 | 2 | 3 | L |
| 03/05 | San Diego FC USA MLS |
0-1 | 2-2 | 3 | 5 | D |
| 30/04 | Toluca CONCACAF Champions Cup |
0-0 | 2-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 25/04 | Minnesota United USA MLS |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 23/04 | Colorado Rapids USA MLS |
0-0 | 0-0 | 4 | 6 | D |
| 20/04 | San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS |
0-0 | 1-4 | 5 | 6 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in LA Galaxy vs Los Angeles FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Los Angeles FC win (38%). Probabilities: LA Galaxy 37%, draw 25%, Los Angeles FC 38%.
How many goals are expected in LA Galaxy vs Los Angeles FC?
The model expects 3.32 goals (LA Galaxy 1.64 · Los Angeles FC 1.68), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.
Will both teams score in LA Galaxy vs Los Angeles FC?
The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.