Prediction: Austin FC vs Seattle Sounders
| Austin FC | Draw | Seattle Sounders | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 29% | 26% | 45% |
| Market | 29% | 26% | 45% |
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Seattle Sounders (rating 1456 vs 1512).
- H2H favours Seattle Sounders: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Austin FC | Seattle Sounders | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 2.4 | 1.5 / 1.2 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.6 | 0.7 / 0.6 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/10/40% | 20/60/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2 / 3.8 | 2.2 / 5.3 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5.1 / 0 | 3.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Austin FC 2–1–3 Seattle Sounders
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22/09/25 USA MLS | Austin FC | 2-1 HT 1-0 | Seattle Sounders |
| 29/06/25 USA MLS | Seattle Sounders | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Austin FC |
| 14/07/24 USA MLS | Austin FC | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Seattle Sounders |
| 03/03/24 USA MLS | Seattle Sounders | 0-0 HT 0-0 | Austin FC |
| 31/08/23 USA MLS | Austin FC | 1-2 HT 0-0 | Seattle Sounders |
| 18/05/23 USA MLS | Seattle Sounders | 1-2 HT 0-1 | Austin FC |
Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 34 | 12 | 32 |
| 2 | San Jose Earthquakes | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 34 | 15 | 32 |
| 3 | Real Salt Lake | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 26 | 19 | 26 |
| 4 | FC Dallas | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 30 | 22 | 25 |
| 5 | Los Angeles FC | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 17 | 24 |
| 6 | Seattle Sounders | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 11 | 24 |
| 7 | Houston Dynamo | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 23 | 22 |
| 8 | Minnesota United | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 22 | 22 |
| 9 | LA Galaxy | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 22 | 20 |
| 10 | San Diego FC | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 30 | 27 | 17 |
| 11 | Colorado Rapids | 15 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 25 | 24 | 16 |
| 12 | St. Louis City SC | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 20 | 16 |
| 13 | Portland Timbers | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 22 | 28 | 14 |
| 14 | Austin FC | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 19 | 31 | 14 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 14 | 36 | 11 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Austin FC | Seattle Sounders |
|---|---|---|
| St. Louis City SC | 0-3 L | 4-1 W |
| Sporting Kansas City | 1-2 L | 1-1 D |
| San Diego FC | 0-5 L | 1-1 D |
| Houston Dynamo | 2-0 W | 1-0 W |
| San Jose Earthquakes | 1-5 L | 3-2 W |
| LA Galaxy | 1-2 L | 0-2 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 5 L | 3 W 2 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Seattle Sounders (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Austin FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05 | St. Louis City SC USA MLS |
0-1 | 0-3 | 2 | 2 | L |
| 17/05 | Sporting Kansas City USA MLS |
1-0 | 1-2 | 3 | 7 | L |
| 14/05 | San Diego FC USA MLS |
0-2 | 0-5 | 3 | 1 | L |
| 11/05 | Minnesota United USA MLS |
1-0 | 2-2 | 4 | 7 | D |
| 03/05 | St. Louis City SC USA MLS |
0-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 26/04 | Houston Dynamo USA MLS |
2-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 6 | W |
| 23/04 | San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS |
1-0 | 1-5 | 1 | 3 | L |
| 18/04 | Toronto FC USA MLS |
1-0 | 3-3 | 5 | 7 | D |
| 15/04 | Louisville City FC USA US Open Cup |
0-2 | 1-2 | 7 | 6 | L |
| 11/04 | LA Galaxy USA MLS |
0-1 | 1-2 | 6 | 6 | L |
Seattle Sounders
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/05 | Los Angeles FC USA MLS |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 17/05 | LA Galaxy USA MLS |
0-1 | 0-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 14/05 | San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS |
1-1 | 3-2 | 9 | 2 | W |
| 10/05 | San Diego FC USA MLS |
0-1 | 1-1 | 8 | 5 | D |
| 02/05 | Sporting Kansas City USA MLS |
1-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 2 | D |
| 26/04 | FC Dallas USA MLS |
2-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 5 | W |
| 19/04 | St. Louis City SC USA MLS |
2-0 | 4-1 | 5 | 0 | W |
| 16/04 | Tigres UANL CONCACAF Champions Cup |
1-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 5 | W |
| 09/04 | Tigres UANL CONCACAF Champions Cup |
0-0 | 0-2 | 0 | 6 | L |
| 05/04 | Houston Dynamo USA MLS |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 3 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Austin FC vs Seattle Sounders?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Seattle Sounders win (45%). Probabilities: Austin FC 29%, draw 26%, Seattle Sounders 45%.
How many goals are expected in Austin FC vs Seattle Sounders?
The model expects 3 goals (Austin FC 1.31 · Seattle Sounders 1.69), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Austin FC vs Seattle Sounders?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.