Football · USA MLS · 02/08, 02:30

Prediction: Chicago Fire vs Charlotte FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.35Total

Chicago Fire2.2

Charlotte FC1.15

1X2

60% 21% 18%

Chicago Fire Draw Charlotte FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Chicago Fire 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Charlotte FC 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Chicago Fire 2–4 Charlotte FC (6 last)

Chicago Fire3-2Charlotte FC
Charlotte FC1-4Chicago Fire
Charlotte FC4-3Chicago Fire
Chicago Fire0-1Charlotte FC
Chicago Fire0-2Charlotte FC
Charlotte FC2-1Chicago Fire

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chicago Fire 1493 · Charlotte FC 1483

	Chicago Fire	Draw	Charlotte FC
Our model	60%	22%	18%
Market	61%	21%	19%

Estimated total (ours) 3.35 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Charlotte FC: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 9.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chicago Fire	Charlotte FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 1.9	1.3 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1	0.9 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/50/30%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.6	2.6 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.1	5.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.53

X4.50

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.93

2 (+1)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.53 → 1.53	Bet365 1.53
X	4.50 → 4.50	Pinn 4.93 ★
2	5.00 → 5.00	Pinn 5.35

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.5% Pinnacle margin 5.6%

Time*	1	X	2
00:13 +7’	1.53	4.50	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:20	1.50	4.93	5.35

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Chicago Fire 2–0–4 Charlotte FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/06/25 USA MLS	Chicago Fire	3-2 HT 3-0	Charlotte FC
18/05/25 USA MLS	Charlotte FC	1-4 HT 0-1	Chicago Fire
03/10/24 USA MLS	Charlotte FC	4-3 HT 3-1	Chicago Fire
16/05/24 USA MLS	Chicago Fire	0-1 HT 0-0	Charlotte FC
08/10/23 USA MLS	Chicago Fire	0-2 HT 0-1	Charlotte FC
18/05/23 USA MLS	Charlotte FC	2-1 HT 0-1	Chicago Fire

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	17	12	3	2	33	12	39
2	Inter Miami CF	17	11	4	2	43	30	37
3	New England Revolution	16	9	2	5	26	19	29
4	Chicago Fire	16	8	2	6	30	22	26
5	New York City FC	17	7	4	6	30	23	25
6	Charlotte FC	17	7	4	6	28	25	25
7	FC Cincinnati	17	6	5	6	41	42	23
8	New York Red Bulls	17	6	4	7	26	37	22
9	DC United	17	5	7	5	24	27	22
10	Orlando City SC	17	6	2	9	28	44	20
11	Columbus Crew	17	5	4	8	24	26	19
12	Toronto FC	17	3	7	7	23	31	16
13	CF Montreal	17	4	3	10	22	33	15
14	Philadelphia Union	17	3	4	10	22	31	13
15	Atlanta United	17	3	3	11	17	30	12

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Chicago Fire	Charlotte FC
New York City FC	1-3 L	0-1 L
Toronto FC	2-1 W	3-1 W
New York Red Bulls	1-3 L	2-0 W
FC Cincinnati	2-3 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Charlotte FC (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Chicago Fire

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	New York City FC USA MLS	1-3	1-3	2	4	L
23/07	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-1	2-3	4	2	L
24/05	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-1	2-1	3	7	W
16/05	CF Montreal USA MLS	1-0	2-0	3	7	W
14/05	DC United USA MLS	0-1	3-1	8	5	W
09/05	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-1	1-3	6	4	L
03/05	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	2-2	2-3	10	5	L
30/04	St. Louis City SC USA US Open Cup	0-0	1-2	5	5	L
26/04	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	0-0	5-0	4	1	W
19/04	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	2-1	3-3	1	7	D

Charlotte FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	2-0	2-0	1	6	W
23/07	Atlanta United USA MLS	2-0	2-2	6	4	D
24/05	New England Revolution USA MLS	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
17/05	Toronto FC USA MLS	2-1	3-1	7	3	W
14/05	New York City FC USA MLS	0-1	0-1	8	9	L
10/05	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	0-2	2-2	7	5	D
03/05	New England Revolution USA MLS	0-0	0-1	5	7	L
29/04	Atlanta United USA US Open Cup	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
26/04	Nashville SC USA MLS	1-2	2-4	4	3	L
23/04	Orlando City SC USA MLS	1-1	1-4	4	7	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chicago Fire vs Charlotte FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Chicago Fire win (60%). Probabilities: Chicago Fire 60%, draw 21%, Charlotte FC 18%.

How many goals are expected in Chicago Fire vs Charlotte FC?

The model expects 3.35 goals (Chicago Fire 2.2 · Charlotte FC 1.15), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Chicago Fire vs Charlotte FC?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.