Football · USA MLS · 02/08, 01:30

Prediction: Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.18Total

Philadelphia Union1.77

Atlanta United1.4

1X2

45% 25% 30%

Philadelphia Union Draw Atlanta United

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Philadelphia Union 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

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Atlanta United 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Philadelphia Union 3–2–1 Atlanta United (6 last)

Atlanta United3-1Philadelphia Union
Atlanta United0-1Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia Union3-0Atlanta United

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Philadelphia Union: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Philadelphia Union	Atlanta United
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.9	1.3 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1	0.3 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	20/30/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.7	2.8 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.1	3.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.87

Under 2.751.97

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 03:37

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.75▲	Pinn 1.75
X	3.89 → 3.94▲	Pinn 3.94
2	4.35 → 4.41▲	Pinn 4.41

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 5.3%

Time*	1	X	2
02:40	1.73	3.89	4.35
03:37	1.75▲	3.94▲	4.41▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Philadelphia Union 3–2–1 Atlanta United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 USA MLS	Atlanta United	3-1 HT 1-0	Philadelphia Union
18/05/25 USA MLS	Atlanta United	0-1 HT 0-0	Philadelphia Union
20/04/25 USA MLS	Philadelphia Union	3-0 HT 1-0	Atlanta United
29/09/24 USA MLS	Philadelphia Union	1-1 HT 0-0	Atlanta United
14/04/24 USA MLS	Atlanta United	2-2 HT 0-0	Philadelphia Union
05/10/23 USA MLS	Philadelphia Union	3-2 HT 3-0	Atlanta United

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	16	12	3	1	33	11	39
2	Inter Miami CF	16	10	4	2	42	30	34
3	Chicago Fire	15	8	2	5	29	19	26
4	New England Revolution	15	8	2	5	22	18	26
5	FC Cincinnati	16	6	5	5	40	40	23
6	New York City FC	16	6	4	6	27	22	22
7	Charlotte FC	16	6	4	6	26	25	22
8	New York Red Bulls	16	6	4	6	26	35	22
9	DC United	16	4	7	5	22	26	19
10	Orlando City SC	16	5	2	9	27	44	17
11	Columbus Crew	16	4	4	8	22	25	16
12	Toronto FC	16	3	7	6	22	29	16
13	CF Montreal	16	4	3	9	22	32	15
14	Atlanta United	16	3	3	10	16	26	12
15	Philadelphia Union	16	2	4	10	21	31	10

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Philadelphia Union	Atlanta United
Columbus Crew	1-1 D	0-2 L
Orlando City SC	3-4 L	1-4 L
New England Revolution	1-2 L	1-4 L
Nashville SC	0-0 D	0-1 L
Toronto FC	3-3 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 3 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 4 L

Better against common opponents: Philadelphia Union (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Philadelphia Union

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-0	1-0	6	1	W
23/07	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	1-1	3-1	8	3	W
25/05	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	4-4	4-6	2	9	L
17/05	Columbus Crew USA MLS	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
14/05	Orlando City SC USA MLS	0-2	3-4	10	4	L
10/05	New England Revolution USA MLS	1-0	1-2	3	3	L
03/05	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
26/04	Columbus Crew USA MLS	0-2	0-2	4	3	L
23/04	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-0	3-3	2	9	D
19/04	DC United USA MLS	0-0	0-0	13	3	D

Atlanta United

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	New England Revolution USA MLS	0-2	1-4	6	4	L
23/07	Charlotte FC USA MLS	0-2	2-2	3	4	D
18/07	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
24/05	Columbus Crew USA MLS	0-2	0-2	3	5	L
20/05	Orlando City SC USA US Open Cup	0-4	1-4	1	6	L
17/05	Orlando City SC USA MLS	0-1	1-1	10	3	D
10/05	LA Galaxy USA MLS	0-0	1-2	6	4	L
03/05	CF Montreal USA MLS	2-1	3-1	3	7	W
29/04	Charlotte FC USA US Open Cup	1-0	2-0	2	3	W
25/04	Toronto FC USA MLS	0-0	2-1	7	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Philadelphia Union win (45%). Probabilities: Philadelphia Union 45%, draw 25%, Atlanta United 30%.

How many goals are expected in Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United?

The model expects 3.18 goals (Philadelphia Union 1.77 · Atlanta United 1.4), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Philadelphia Union vs Atlanta United?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.