Prediction: Houston Dynamo vs DC United
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.9Total
Houston Dynamo1.87
DC United1.03
1X2
Houston Dynamo
Draw
DC United
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Houston Dynamo
5-3-2 (W-D-L)
DC United
2-6-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Houston Dynamo
3–1–2
DC United
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Houston Dynamo 1536 · DC United 1485
| Houston Dynamo | Draw | DC United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 56% | 25% | 20% |
| Market | 56% | 25% | 20% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.9 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Houston Dynamo (rating 1536 vs 1485).
- H2H favours Houston Dynamo: 3-1-2.
- Cards-heavy: 9.5 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Houston Dynamo | DC United | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.3 / 1.1 | 1.9 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.7 / 0.6 | 0.8 / 0.4 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 30/60/10% | 50/30/20% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 1.6 / 4.1 | 2.7 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 5 / 0.6 | 4.5 / 0.2 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Houston Dynamo 3–1–2 DC United
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/02/25 World Club Friendlies | DC United | 3-1 | Houston Dynamo |
| 23/06/24 USA MLS | DC United | 1-4 HT 1-0 | Houston Dynamo |
| 08/05/22 USA MLS | DC United | 2-0 HT 2-0 | Houston Dynamo |
| 19/05/19 USA MLS | Houston Dynamo | 2-1 HT 0-0 | DC United |
| 17/03/18 USA MLS | DC United | 2-2 HT 0-2 | Houston Dynamo |
| 23/07/17 USA MLS | DC United | 1-3 HT 0-3 | Houston Dynamo |
Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 34 | 12 | 32 |
| 2 | San Jose Earthquakes | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 34 | 15 | 32 |
| 3 | Real Salt Lake | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 26 | 19 | 26 |
| 4 | FC Dallas | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 30 | 22 | 25 |
| 5 | Los Angeles FC | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 17 | 24 |
| 6 | Seattle Sounders | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 11 | 24 |
| 7 | Houston Dynamo | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 23 | 22 |
| 8 | Minnesota United | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 22 | 22 |
| 9 | LA Galaxy | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 22 | 20 |
| 10 | San Diego FC | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 30 | 27 | 17 |
| 11 | Colorado Rapids | 15 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 25 | 24 | 16 |
| 12 | St. Louis City SC | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 20 | 16 |
| 13 | Portland Timbers | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 22 | 28 | 14 |
| 14 | Austin FC | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 19 | 31 | 14 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 14 | 36 | 11 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Houston Dynamo
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07 | America de Cali Club Friendly List |
1-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 24/05 | LA Galaxy USA MLS |
1-1 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 20/05 | St. Louis City SC USA US Open Cup |
2-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 8 | D |
| 17/05 | Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 14/05 | Real Salt Lake USA MLS |
0-0 | 0-3 | 1 | 1 | L |
| 11/05 | Los Angeles FC USA MLS |
2-1 | 4-1 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 03/05 | Colorado Rapids USA MLS |
0-0 | 1-0 | 6 | 6 | W |
| 30/04 | Louisville City FC USA US Open Cup |
0-0 | 1-1 | 10 | 5 | D |
| 26/04 | Austin FC USA MLS |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 23/04 | San Diego FC USA MLS |
1-0 | 1-0 | 1 | 7 | W |
DC United
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05 | CF Montreal USA MLS |
2-1 | 4-4 | 6 | 7 | D |
| 17/05 | St. Louis City SC USA MLS |
0-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 8 | D |
| 14/05 | Chicago Fire USA MLS |
1-0 | 1-3 | 7 | 5 | L |
| 10/05 | Nashville SC USA MLS |
2-0 | 2-2 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 03/05 | New York City FC USA MLS |
1-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 26/04 | Orlando City SC USA MLS |
1-0 | 3-2 | 7 | 8 | W |
| 23/04 | New York Red Bulls USA MLS |
1-2 | 4-4 | 3 | 3 | D |
| 19/04 | Philadelphia Union USA MLS |
0-0 | 0-0 | 1 | 3 | D |
| 16/04 | One Knoxville SC USA US Open Cup |
0-0 | 2-2 | 12 | 3 | D |
| 12/04 | New England Revolution USA MLS |
0-1 | 0-1 | 3 | 0 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Houston Dynamo vs DC United?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Houston Dynamo win (56%). Probabilities: Houston Dynamo 56%, draw 25%, DC United 20%.
How many goals are expected in Houston Dynamo vs DC United?
The model expects 2.9 goals (Houston Dynamo 1.87 · DC United 1.03), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Houston Dynamo vs DC United?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.