Football · USA MLS · 02/08, 01:30

Prediction: New York Red Bulls vs Orlando City SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.15Total

New York Red Bulls2.06

Orlando City SC2.09

1X2

39% 22% 40%

New York Red Bulls Draw Orlando City SC

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 63%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

New York Red Bulls 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Orlando City SC 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

New York Red Bulls 3–3–0 Orlando City SC (6 last)

Orlando City SC1-2New York Red Bulls
Orlando City SC0-0New York Red Bulls
New York Red Bulls2-2Orlando City SC

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 79%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Orlando City SC (rating 1475 vs 1535).
H2H favours New York Red Bulls: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	New York Red Bulls	Orlando City SC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.1	2.9 / 2.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.9	1.4 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 5.2	1.9 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.1	5.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 3.752.00

Under 3.751.84

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 4.4

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 03:37

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.93 → 1.95▲	Pinn 1.95
X	4.15 → 4.21▲	Pinn 4.21
2	3.27 → 3.31▲	Pinn 3.31

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 5.2%

Time*	1	X	2
02:40	1.93	4.15	3.27
03:37	1.95▲	4.21▲	3.31▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · New York Red Bulls 3–3–0 Orlando City SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/02/26 USA MLS	Orlando City SC	1-2 HT 0-2	New York Red Bulls
12/04/25 USA MLS	Orlando City SC	0-0 HT 0-0	New York Red Bulls
15/03/25 USA MLS	New York Red Bulls	2-2 HT 1-2	Orlando City SC
01/12/24 USA MLS Play-Offs	Orlando City SC	0-1 HT 0-0	New York Red Bulls
02/06/24 USA MLS	New York Red Bulls	1-0 HT 1-0	Orlando City SC
31/03/24 USA MLS	Orlando City SC	1-1 HT 0-1	New York Red Bulls

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	16	12	3	1	33	11	39
2	Inter Miami CF	16	10	4	2	42	30	34
3	Chicago Fire	15	8	2	5	29	19	26
4	New England Revolution	15	8	2	5	22	18	26
5	FC Cincinnati	16	6	5	5	40	40	23
6	New York City FC	16	6	4	6	27	22	22
7	Charlotte FC	16	6	4	6	26	25	22
8	New York Red Bulls	16	6	4	6	26	35	22
9	DC United	16	4	7	5	22	26	19
10	Orlando City SC	16	5	2	9	27	44	17
11	Columbus Crew	16	4	4	8	22	25	16
12	Toronto FC	16	3	7	6	22	29	16
13	CF Montreal	16	4	3	9	22	32	15
14	Atlanta United	16	3	3	10	16	26	12
15	Philadelphia Union	16	2	4	10	21	31	10

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	New York Red Bulls	Orlando City SC
Charlotte FC	0-2 L	4-1 W
Philadelphia Union	1-3 L	4-3 W
FC Cincinnati	0-2 L	2-6 L
DC United	4-4 D	2-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

New York Red Bulls

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Charlotte FC USA MLS	0-2	0-2	6	6	L
23/07	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	1-1	1-3	6	3	L
24/05	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	2-0	2-1	1	3	W
17/05	New York City FC USA MLS	1-0	1-1	9	7	D
14/05	Columbus Crew USA MLS	2-1	3-2	3	5	W
09/05	Chicago Fire USA MLS	1-0	3-1	3	4	W
03/05	FC Dallas USA MLS	0-0	0-2	8	2	L
30/04	New York City FC USA US Open Cup	1-2	1-3	6	2	L
26/04	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	0-2	0-2	7	3	L
23/04	DC United USA MLS	2-1	4-4	3	3	D

Orlando City SC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/07	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	2-0	4-0	2	6	W
24/05	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	1-2	2-6	9	5	L
20/05	Atlanta United USA US Open Cup	4-0	4-1	7	6	W
17/05	Atlanta United USA MLS	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
14/05	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	2-0	4-3	2	4	W
09/05	CF Montreal USA MLS	0-0	0-2	3	3	L
03/05	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-3	4-3	2	8	W
30/04	New England Revolution USA US Open Cup	2-2	4-3	3	4	W
26/04	DC United USA MLS	0-1	2-3	8	8	L
23/04	Charlotte FC USA MLS	1-1	4-1	2	7	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in New York Red Bulls vs Orlando City SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Orlando City SC win (40%). Probabilities: New York Red Bulls 39%, draw 22%, Orlando City SC 40%.

How many goals are expected in New York Red Bulls vs Orlando City SC?

The model expects 4.15 goals (New York Red Bulls 2.06 · Orlando City SC 2.09), with a 51% chance of over 3.75 goals.

Will both teams score in New York Red Bulls vs Orlando City SC?

The model gives a 63% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.