Prediction: San Jose Earthquakes vs Orlando City SC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
4.21Total
San Jose Earthquakes2.8
Orlando City SC1.41
1X2
San Jose Earthquakes
Draw
Orlando City SC
Markets
Under 4.5 goals 59%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
2-1
Recent form · 10 last
San Jose Earthquakes
4-2-4 (W-D-L)
Orlando City SC
5-1-4 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
San Jose Earthquakes
1–2–3
Orlando City SC
(6 last)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · San Jose Earthquakes 1530 · Orlando City SC 1516
| San Jose Earthquakes | Draw | Orlando City SC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 66% | 18% | 17% |
| Market | 65% | 20% | 16% |
Estimated total (ours)
4.21 goals · Bet365 line 3.75 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Orlando City SC: 3-2-1.
- High corners: 12.2 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| San Jose Earthquakes | Orlando City SC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 2.2 / 1.8 | 2.5 / 2.4 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1 / 0.9 | 1.2 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 40/30/30% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3.2 / 7.8 | 2.1 / 4.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.1 / 0 | 5.2 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · San Jose Earthquakes 1–2–3 Orlando City SC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/05/24 USA MLS | San Jose Earthquakes | 0-1 HT 0-0 | Orlando City SC |
| 23/06/21 USA MLS | Orlando City SC | 5-0 HT 3-0 | San Jose Earthquakes |
| 01/09/19 USA MLS | San Jose Earthquakes | 3-0 HT 3-0 | Orlando City SC |
| 22/04/18 USA MLS | Orlando City SC | 3-2 HT 2-0 | San Jose Earthquakes |
| 18/05/17 USA MLS | San Jose Earthquakes | 1-1 HT 0-0 | Orlando City SC |
| 19/06/16 USA MLS | Orlando City SC | 2-2 HT 0-0 | San Jose Earthquakes |
Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vancouver Whitecaps | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 34 | 12 | 32 |
| 2 | San Jose Earthquakes | 15 | 10 | 2 | 3 | 34 | 15 | 32 |
| 3 | Real Salt Lake | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 26 | 19 | 26 |
| 4 | FC Dallas | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 30 | 22 | 25 |
| 5 | Los Angeles FC | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 17 | 24 |
| 6 | Seattle Sounders | 13 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 11 | 24 |
| 7 | Houston Dynamo | 14 | 7 | 1 | 6 | 19 | 23 | 22 |
| 8 | Minnesota United | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 18 | 22 | 22 |
| 9 | LA Galaxy | 15 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 22 | 22 | 20 |
| 10 | San Diego FC | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 30 | 27 | 17 |
| 11 | Colorado Rapids | 15 | 5 | 1 | 9 | 25 | 24 | 16 |
| 12 | St. Louis City SC | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 16 | 20 | 16 |
| 13 | Portland Timbers | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 22 | 28 | 14 |
| 14 | Austin FC | 15 | 3 | 5 | 7 | 19 | 31 | 14 |
| 15 | Sporting Kansas City | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 14 | 36 | 11 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
San Jose Earthquakes
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07 | Tijuana Club Friendly List |
1-2 | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 24/05 | Portland Timbers USA MLS |
3-1 | 3-1 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 21/05 | Colorado Rapids USA US Open Cup |
0-2 | 0-2 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 17/05 | FC Dallas USA MLS |
1-1 | 2-3 | 12 | 6 | L |
| 14/05 | Seattle Sounders USA MLS |
1-1 | 2-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 10/05 | Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS |
1-0 | 1-1 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 02/05 | Toronto FC USA MLS |
1-1 | 1-1 | 9 | 4 | D |
| 29/04 | Minnesota United USA US Open Cup |
1-0 | 4-2 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 26/04 | St. Louis City SC USA MLS |
1-0 | 3-2 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 23/04 | Austin FC USA MLS |
0-1 | 5-1 | 14 | 3 | W |
Orlando City SC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/05 | FC Cincinnati USA MLS |
1-2 | 2-6 | 9 | 5 | L |
| 20/05 | Atlanta United USA US Open Cup |
4-0 | 4-1 | 7 | 6 | W |
| 17/05 | Atlanta United USA MLS |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 3 | D |
| 14/05 | Philadelphia Union USA MLS |
2-0 | 4-3 | 2 | 4 | W |
| 09/05 | CF Montreal USA MLS |
0-0 | 0-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 03/05 | Inter Miami CF USA MLS |
1-3 | 4-3 | 2 | 8 | W |
| 30/04 | New England Revolution USA US Open Cup |
2-2 | 4-3 | 3 | 4 | W |
| 26/04 | DC United USA MLS |
0-1 | 2-3 | 8 | 8 | L |
| 23/04 | Charlotte FC USA MLS |
1-1 | 4-1 | 2 | 7 | W |
| 19/04 | Houston Dynamo USA MLS |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 4 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in San Jose Earthquakes vs Orlando City SC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a San Jose Earthquakes win (65%). Probabilities: San Jose Earthquakes 65%, draw 19%, Orlando City SC 16%.
How many goals are expected in San Jose Earthquakes vs Orlando City SC?
The model expects 4.21 goals (San Jose Earthquakes 2.8 · Orlando City SC 1.41), with a 52% chance of over 3.75 goals.
Will both teams score in San Jose Earthquakes vs Orlando City SC?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.