Football · USA MLS · 26/07, 01:30

Prediction: DC United vs Toronto FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.33Total

DC United1.96

Toronto FC1.37

1X2

50% 25% 25%

DC United Draw Toronto FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

DC United 2-6-2 (W-D-L)

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Toronto FC 0-5-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

DC United 2–2–2 Toronto FC (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · DC United 1484 · Toronto FC 1431

	DC United	Draw	Toronto FC
Our model	50%	24%	26%
Market	49%	27%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.33 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours DC United (rating 1484 vs 1431).
Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	DC United	Toronto FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.9	1.4 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.4	0.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.4	1.7 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.2	4.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.50

23.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.95 · xG: 3.7

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:10 +6’	1.90	3.50	3.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · DC United 2–2–2 Toronto FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/05/25 USA MLS	Toronto FC	2-0 HT 0-0	DC United
23/02/25 USA MLS	DC United	2-2 HT 2-1	Toronto FC
01/09/24 USA MLS	Toronto FC	1-3 HT 0-0	DC United
02/06/24 USA MLS	DC United	2-2 HT 0-2	Toronto FC
28/05/23 USA MLS	Toronto FC	2-1 HT 1-0	DC United
26/02/23 USA MLS	DC United	3-2 HT 1-0	Toronto FC

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	15	11	3	1	32	11	36
2	Inter Miami CF	15	9	4	2	39	28	31
3	Chicago Fire	14	8	2	4	27	16	26
4	New England Revolution	14	8	1	5	22	18	25
5	New York Red Bulls	15	6	4	5	25	32	22
6	Charlotte FC	15	6	3	6	24	23	21
7	FC Cincinnati	15	5	5	5	36	37	20
8	New York City FC	15	5	4	6	25	21	19
9	DC United	15	4	6	5	21	25	18
10	Columbus Crew	15	4	4	7	21	23	16
11	CF Montreal	15	4	3	8	22	31	15
12	Toronto FC	15	3	6	6	22	29	15
13	Orlando City SC	15	4	2	9	23	44	14
14	Atlanta United	15	3	2	10	14	24	11
15	Philadelphia Union	15	1	4	10	18	30	7

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	DC United	Toronto FC
CF Montreal	4-4 D	0-0 D
Chicago Fire	1-3 L	1-2 L
Philadelphia Union	0-0 D	3-3 D
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 1 L	0 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Toronto FC (1 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

DC United

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/05	CF Montreal USA MLS	2-1	4-4	6	7	D
17/05	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-0	1-1	5	8	D
14/05	Chicago Fire USA MLS	1-0	1-3	7	5	L
10/05	Nashville SC USA MLS	2-0	2-2	7	5	D
03/05	New York City FC USA MLS	1-0	2-0	3	5	W
26/04	Orlando City SC USA MLS	1-0	3-2	7	8	W
23/04	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	1-2	4-4	3	3	D
19/04	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	0-0	0-0	1	3	D
16/04	One Knoxville SC USA US Open Cup	0-0	2-2	12	3	D
12/04	New England Revolution USA MLS	0-1	0-1	3	0	L

Toronto FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	CF Montreal USA MLS	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
24/05	Chicago Fire USA MLS	1-1	1-2	4	7	L
17/05	Charlotte FC USA MLS	1-2	1-3	3	3	L
09/05	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	0-1	2-4	4	3	L
06/05	Atletico Ottawa Canada Championships	1-0	1-3	3	5	L
02/05	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	1-1	1-1	8	4	D
25/04	Atlanta United USA MLS	0-0	1-2	8	2	L
23/04	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	0-1	3-3	2	9	D
18/04	Austin FC USA MLS	0-1	3-3	6	7	D
11/04	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	0-0	1-1	7	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in DC United vs Toronto FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a DC United win (50%). Probabilities: DC United 50%, draw 25%, Toronto FC 25%.

How many goals are expected in DC United vs Toronto FC?

The model expects 3.33 goals (DC United 1.96 · Toronto FC 1.37), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in DC United vs Toronto FC?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.