Football · USA MLS · 26/07, 01:30

Prediction: CF Montreal vs Inter Miami CF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.01Total

CF Montreal1.82

Inter Miami CF2.19

1X2

31% 23% 46%

CF Montreal Draw Inter Miami CF

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

CF Montreal 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

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Inter Miami CF 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

CF Montreal 2–4 Inter Miami CF (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · CF Montreal 1524 · Inter Miami CF 1552

	CF Montreal	Draw	Inter Miami CF
Our model	32%	22%	46%
Market	31%	24%	45%

Estimated total (ours) 4.01 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Inter Miami CF: 4-0-2.
High corners: 13.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 9.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	CF Montreal	Inter Miami CF
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.3	3 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.6	1.5 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	40/60/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 6.8	3.6 / 6.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.6 / 0.3	5.2 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.90

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.95

2 (-0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 4.1

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
16:16 +1’	3.00	3.90	2.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · CF Montreal 2–0–4 Inter Miami CF

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Date	Home	Score	Away
06/07/25 USA MLS	CF Montreal	1-4 HT 1-2	Inter Miami CF
29/05/25 USA MLS	Inter Miami CF	4-2 HT 1-0	CF Montreal
12/05/24 USA MLS	CF Montreal	2-3 HT 2-2	Inter Miami CF
10/03/24 USA MLS	Inter Miami CF	2-3 HT 0-1	CF Montreal
28/05/23 USA MLS	CF Montreal	1-0 HT 0-0	Inter Miami CF
26/02/23 USA MLS	Inter Miami CF	2-0 HT 1-0	CF Montreal

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	15	11	3	1	32	11	36
2	Inter Miami CF	15	9	4	2	39	28	31
3	Chicago Fire	14	8	2	4	27	16	26
4	New England Revolution	14	8	1	5	22	18	25
5	New York Red Bulls	15	6	4	5	25	32	22
6	Charlotte FC	15	6	3	6	24	23	21
7	FC Cincinnati	15	5	5	5	36	37	20
8	New York City FC	15	5	4	6	25	21	19
9	DC United	15	4	6	5	21	25	18
10	Columbus Crew	15	4	4	7	21	23	16
11	CF Montreal	15	4	3	8	22	31	15
12	Toronto FC	15	3	6	6	22	29	15
13	Orlando City SC	15	4	2	9	23	44	14
14	Atlanta United	15	3	2	10	14	24	11
15	Philadelphia Union	15	1	4	10	18	30	7

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	CF Montreal	Inter Miami CF
Toronto FC	0-0 D	4-2 W
Portland Timbers	2-2 D	2-0 W
Orlando City SC	2-0 W	3-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 0 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Inter Miami CF (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

CF Montreal

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	Toronto FC USA MLS	0-0	0-0	9	2	D
13/07	Vancouver FC Canada Championships	0-0	2-1	4	6	W
09/07	Vancouver FC Canada Championships	0-0	2-1	2	3	W
24/05	DC United USA MLS	1-2	4-4	4	7	D
16/05	Chicago Fire USA MLS	0-1	0-2	16	7	L
14/05	Portland Timbers USA MLS	2-1	2-2	6	3	D
09/05	Orlando City SC USA MLS	0-0	2-0	11	3	W
07/05	Calgary Blizzard SC Canada Championships	2-0	5-0	11	2	W
03/05	Atlanta United USA MLS	1-2	1-3	2	7	L
25/04	New York City FC USA MLS	1-0	1-0	3	9	W

Inter Miami CF

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/05	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	4-4	6-4	4	9	W
18/05	Portland Timbers USA MLS	2-0	2-0	8	4	W
14/05	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	1-1	5-3	8	5	W
09/05	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-0	4-2	4	3	W
03/05	Orlando City SC USA MLS	3-1	3-4	10	8	L
26/04	New England Revolution USA MLS	0-0	1-1	7	3	D
23/04	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-0	2-0	4	6	W
18/04	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	2-0	3-2	2	10	W
12/04	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	1-1	2-2	12	3	D
05/04	Austin FC USA MLS	1-1	2-2	7	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in CF Montreal vs Inter Miami CF?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Inter Miami CF win (46%). Probabilities: CF Montreal 31%, draw 23%, Inter Miami CF 46%.

How many goals are expected in CF Montreal vs Inter Miami CF?

The model expects 4.01 goals (CF Montreal 1.82 · Inter Miami CF 2.19), with a 53% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in CF Montreal vs Inter Miami CF?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.