Football · USA MLS · 26/07, 01:30

Prediction: New England Revolution vs Atlanta United

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.54Total

New England Revolution1.53

Atlanta United1.01

1X2

48% 27% 24%

New England Revolution Draw Atlanta United

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

New England Revolution 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Atlanta United 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

New England Revolution 4–2 Atlanta United (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · New England Revolution 1522 · Atlanta United 1457

	New England Revolution	Draw	Atlanta United
Our model	48%	28%	24%
Market	49%	27%	25%

Estimated total (ours) 2.54 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours New England Revolution (rating 1522 vs 1457).
H2H favours New England Revolution: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	New England Revolution	Atlanta United
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.4	1.1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.9	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	30/40/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4.4	2.3 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.1	3.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.50

23.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0 · xG: 2.75

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.6%

Time*	1	X	2
16:11 +5’	1.91	3.50	3.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · New England Revolution 4–0–2 Atlanta United

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/04/26 USA MLS	Atlanta United	1-2 HT 1-0	New England Revolution
28/09/25 USA MLS	New England Revolution	2-0 HT 0-0	Atlanta United
12/04/25 USA MLS	Atlanta United	0-1 HT 0-1	New England Revolution
08/02/25 World Club Friendlies	Atlanta United	2-0	New England Revolution
04/07/24 USA MLS	New England Revolution	2-1 HT 2-0	Atlanta United
10/03/24 USA MLS	Atlanta United	4-1 HT 1-0	New England Revolution

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	15	11	3	1	32	11	36
2	Inter Miami CF	15	9	4	2	39	28	31
3	Chicago Fire	14	8	2	4	27	16	26
4	New England Revolution	14	8	1	5	22	18	25
5	New York Red Bulls	15	6	4	5	25	32	22
6	Charlotte FC	15	6	3	6	24	23	21
7	FC Cincinnati	15	5	5	5	36	37	20
8	New York City FC	15	5	4	6	25	21	19
9	DC United	15	4	6	5	21	25	18
10	Columbus Crew	15	4	4	7	21	23	16
11	CF Montreal	15	4	3	8	22	31	15
12	Toronto FC	15	3	6	6	22	29	15
13	Orlando City SC	15	4	2	9	23	44	14
14	Atlanta United	15	3	2	10	14	24	11
15	Philadelphia Union	15	1	4	10	18	30	7

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	New England Revolution	Atlanta United
Charlotte FC	0-1 L	2-0 W
Nashville SC	0-3 L	0-1 L
Orlando City SC	3-4 L	1-4 L
Columbus Crew	2-1 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

New England Revolution

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/05	Charlotte FC USA MLS	0-1	0-1	4	6	L
17/05	Minnesota United USA MLS	1-1	2-1	8	3	W
14/05	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-2	0-3	6	5	L
10/05	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	0-1	2-1	9	3	W
03/05	Charlotte FC USA MLS	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
30/04	Orlando City SC USA US Open Cup	2-2	3-4	3	4	L
26/04	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	0-0	1-1	1	3	D
23/04	Atlanta United USA MLS	0-1	2-1	3	4	W
19/04	Columbus Crew USA MLS	0-1	2-1	3	4	W
15/04	Rhode Island FC USA US Open Cup	0-0	1-1	4	7	D

Atlanta United

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
24/05	Columbus Crew USA MLS	0-2	0-2	3	5	L
20/05	Orlando City SC USA US Open Cup	0-4	1-4	1	6	L
17/05	Orlando City SC USA MLS	0-1	1-1	10	3	D
10/05	LA Galaxy USA MLS	0-0	1-2	6	4	L
03/05	CF Montreal USA MLS	2-1	3-1	3	7	W
29/04	Charlotte FC USA US Open Cup	1-0	2-0	2	3	W
25/04	Toronto FC USA MLS	0-0	2-1	7	2	W
23/04	New England Revolution USA MLS	1-0	1-2	8	4	L
19/04	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-0	0-2	5	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in New England Revolution vs Atlanta United?

According to our model, the most likely result is a New England Revolution win (48%). Probabilities: New England Revolution 48%, draw 27%, Atlanta United 24%.

How many goals are expected in New England Revolution vs Atlanta United?

The model expects 2.54 goals (New England Revolution 1.53 · Atlanta United 1.01), with a 56% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in New England Revolution vs Atlanta United?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.