Football · USA MLS · 26/07, 01:30

Prediction: New York City FC vs Chicago Fire

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.24Total

New York City FC1.68

Chicago Fire1.56

1X2

40% 26% 35%

New York City FC Draw Chicago Fire

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

New York City FC 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Chicago Fire 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

New York City FC 3–3–0 Chicago Fire (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · New York City FC 1495 · Chicago Fire 1527

	New York City FC	Draw	Chicago Fire
Our model	40%	25%	35%
Market	40%	26%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 3.24 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours New York City FC: 3-3-0.
Cards-heavy: 9.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	New York City FC	Chicago Fire
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.4	2.2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.6	0.9 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/30/30%	40/40/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 4.1	1.7 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.5 / 0.1	4.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.60

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.05

2 (+0.25)1.75

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.2 · xG: 3.2

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.4%

Time*	1	X	2
16:07 +10’	2.35	3.60	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · New York City FC 3–3–0 Chicago Fire

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/09/25 USA MLS	Chicago Fire	1-3 HT 1-1	New York City FC
25/05/25 USA MLS	New York City FC	3-1 HT 0-1	Chicago Fire
25/08/24 USA MLS	New York City FC	2-2 HT 2-0	Chicago Fire
14/07/24 USA MLS	Chicago Fire	0-0 HT 0-0	New York City FC
22/10/23 USA MLS	New York City FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Chicago Fire
05/03/23 USA MLS	Chicago Fire	1-1 HT 0-1	New York City FC

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	15	11	3	1	32	11	36
2	Inter Miami CF	15	9	4	2	39	28	31
3	Chicago Fire	14	8	2	4	27	16	26
4	New England Revolution	14	8	1	5	22	18	25
5	New York Red Bulls	15	6	4	5	25	32	22
6	Charlotte FC	15	6	3	6	24	23	21
7	FC Cincinnati	15	5	5	5	36	37	20
8	New York City FC	15	5	4	6	25	21	19
9	DC United	15	4	6	5	21	25	18
10	Columbus Crew	15	4	4	7	21	23	16
11	CF Montreal	15	4	3	8	22	31	15
12	Toronto FC	15	3	6	6	22	29	15
13	Orlando City SC	15	4	2	9	23	44	14
14	Atlanta United	15	3	2	10	14	24	11
15	Philadelphia Union	15	1	4	10	18	30	7

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	New York City FC	Chicago Fire
New York Red Bulls	1-1 D	1-3 L
DC United	0-2 L	3-1 W
CF Montreal	0-1 L	2-0 W
FC Cincinnati	4-4 D	2-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

New York City FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/05	Nashville SC USA MLS	1-1	1-2	3	3	L
21/05	Columbus Crew USA US Open Cup	0-0	0-1	4	1	L
17/05	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-1	1-1	3	7	D
14/05	Charlotte FC USA MLS	1-0	1-0	2	9	W
10/05	Columbus Crew USA MLS	2-0	3-0	3	1	W
03/05	DC United USA MLS	0-1	0-2	6	5	L
30/04	New York Red Bulls USA US Open Cup	2-1	3-1	11	2	W
25/04	CF Montreal USA MLS	0-1	0-1	1	9	L
23/04	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	2-1	4-4	2	3	D
19/04	Charlotte FC USA MLS	0-0	1-2	6	6	L

Chicago Fire

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/05	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-1	2-1	3	7	W
16/05	CF Montreal USA MLS	1-0	2-0	3	7	W
14/05	DC United USA MLS	0-1	3-1	8	5	W
09/05	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-1	1-3	6	4	L
03/05	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	2-2	2-3	10	5	L
30/04	St. Louis City SC USA US Open Cup	0-0	1-2	5	5	L
26/04	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	0-0	5-0	4	1	W
19/04	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	2-1	3-3	1	7	D
15/04	Detroit City FC USA US Open Cup	2-0	2-1	2	6	W
12/04	Atlanta United USA MLS	1-0	1-0	6	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in New York City FC vs Chicago Fire?

According to our model, the most likely result is a New York City FC win (40%). Probabilities: New York City FC 40%, draw 26%, Chicago Fire 35%.

How many goals are expected in New York City FC vs Chicago Fire?

The model expects 3.24 goals (New York City FC 1.68 · Chicago Fire 1.56), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in New York City FC vs Chicago Fire?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.