Football · USA MLS · 26/07, 00:30

Prediction: New York Red Bulls vs Charlotte FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.43Total

New York Red Bulls1.84

Charlotte FC1.59

1X2

43% 25% 32%

New York Red Bulls Draw Charlotte FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

New York Red Bulls 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Charlotte FC 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

New York Red Bulls 3–1–2 Charlotte FC (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · New York Red Bulls 1481 · Charlotte FC 1507

	New York Red Bulls	Draw	Charlotte FC
Our model	43%	24%	33%
Market	42%	25%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 3.43 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours New York Red Bulls: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	New York Red Bulls	Charlotte FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 2.1	1.7 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.8	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/10/30%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 5.1	2.1 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0	5.1 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.70

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.6

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7%

Time*	1	X	2
16:14 +1’	2.20	3.70	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · New York Red Bulls 3–1–2 Charlotte FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
22/03/26 USA MLS	Charlotte FC	6-1 HT 1-0	New York Red Bulls
25/08/25 USA MLS	Charlotte FC	1-0 HT 1-0	New York Red Bulls
29/05/25 USA MLS	New York Red Bulls	4-2 HT 2-1	Charlotte FC
25/08/24 USA MLS	Charlotte FC	1-1 HT 1-1	New York Red Bulls
30/05/24 USA MLS	New York Red Bulls	3-1 HT 0-0	Charlotte FC
26/10/23 USA MLS Play-Offs	New York Red Bulls	5-2 HT 3-0	Charlotte FC

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	15	11	3	1	32	11	36
2	Inter Miami CF	15	9	4	2	39	28	31
3	Chicago Fire	14	8	2	4	27	16	26
4	New England Revolution	14	8	1	5	22	18	25
5	New York Red Bulls	15	6	4	5	25	32	22
6	Charlotte FC	15	6	3	6	24	23	21
7	FC Cincinnati	15	5	5	5	36	37	20
8	New York City FC	15	5	4	6	25	21	19
9	DC United	15	4	6	5	21	25	18
10	Columbus Crew	15	4	4	7	21	23	16
11	CF Montreal	15	4	3	8	22	31	15
12	Toronto FC	15	3	6	6	22	29	15
13	Orlando City SC	15	4	2	9	23	44	14
14	Atlanta United	15	3	2	10	14	24	11
15	Philadelphia Union	15	1	4	10	18	30	7

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	New York Red Bulls	Charlotte FC
New York City FC	1-1 D	0-1 L
FC Cincinnati	0-2 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

New York Red Bulls

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/05	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	2-0	2-1	1	3	W
17/05	New York City FC USA MLS	1-0	1-1	9	7	D
14/05	Columbus Crew USA MLS	2-1	3-2	3	5	W
09/05	Chicago Fire USA MLS	1-0	3-1	3	4	W
03/05	FC Dallas USA MLS	0-0	0-2	8	2	L
30/04	New York City FC USA US Open Cup	1-2	1-3	6	2	L
26/04	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	0-2	0-2	7	3	L
23/04	DC United USA MLS	2-1	4-4	3	3	D
18/04	CF Montreal USA MLS	0-2	1-4	7	6	L
16/04	Pittsburgh Riverhounds USA US Open Cup	2-0	3-1	4	1	W

Charlotte FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/05	New England Revolution USA MLS	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
17/05	Toronto FC USA MLS	2-1	3-1	7	3	W
14/05	New York City FC USA MLS	0-1	0-1	8	9	L
10/05	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	0-2	2-2	7	5	D
03/05	New England Revolution USA MLS	0-0	0-1	5	7	L
29/04	Atlanta United USA US Open Cup	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
26/04	Nashville SC USA MLS	1-2	2-4	4	3	L
23/04	Orlando City SC USA MLS	1-1	1-4	4	7	L
19/04	New York City FC USA MLS	0-0	2-1	1	6	W
16/04	Charlotte Independence USA US Open Cup	1-0	6-0	7	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in New York Red Bulls vs Charlotte FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a New York Red Bulls win (43%). Probabilities: New York Red Bulls 43%, draw 25%, Charlotte FC 32%.

How many goals are expected in New York Red Bulls vs Charlotte FC?

The model expects 3.43 goals (New York Red Bulls 1.84 · Charlotte FC 1.59), with a 54% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in New York Red Bulls vs Charlotte FC?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.