Football · USA MLS · 26/07, 01:30

Prediction: Orlando City SC vs Nashville SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.81Total

Orlando City SC1.74

Nashville SC2.08

1X2

32% 24% 45%

Orlando City SC Draw Nashville SC

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 61%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Orlando City SC 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWLWWLWDWL

Nashville SC 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WWLDLDWWWW

Head-to-head

Orlando City SC 2–1–3 Nashville SC (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Orlando City SC 1503 · Nashville SC 1577

	Orlando City SC	Draw	Nashville SC
Our model	32%	23%	45%
Market	31%	25%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 3.81 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Nashville SC (rating 1503 vs 1577).
H2H favours Nashville SC: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Orlando City SC	Nashville SC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.5 / 2.4	1.7 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.9	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/40/30%	30/50/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.4	2.7 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0	3.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.00

X3.80

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.98

2 (-0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.75

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.3%

Time*	1	X	2
16:03 +13’	3.00	3.80	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Orlando City SC 2–1–3 Nashville SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 USA MLS	Nashville SC	5-0 HT 2-0	Orlando City SC
07/02/26 America Friendlies	Orlando City SC	2-2	Nashville SC
21/09/25 USA MLS	Orlando City SC	3-2 HT 2-1	Nashville SC
24/08/25 USA MLS	Nashville SC	5-1 HT 4-0	Orlando City SC
22/05/25 USA US Open Cup	Orlando City SC	2-3 HT 1-2	Nashville SC
01/09/24 USA MLS	Orlando City SC	3-0 HT 2-0	Nashville SC

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	15	11	3	1	32	11	36
2	Inter Miami CF	15	9	4	2	39	28	31
3	Chicago Fire	14	8	2	4	27	16	26
4	New England Revolution	14	8	1	5	22	18	25
5	New York Red Bulls	15	6	4	5	25	32	22
6	Charlotte FC	15	6	3	6	24	23	21
7	FC Cincinnati	15	5	5	5	36	37	20
8	New York City FC	15	5	4	6	25	21	19
9	DC United	15	4	6	5	21	25	18
10	Columbus Crew	15	4	4	7	21	23	16
11	CF Montreal	15	4	3	8	22	31	15
12	Toronto FC	15	3	6	6	22	29	15
13	Orlando City SC	15	4	2	9	23	44	14
14	Atlanta United	15	3	2	10	14	24	11
15	Philadelphia Union	15	1	4	10	18	30	7

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Orlando City SC	Nashville SC
Atlanta United	4-1 W	1-0 W
Philadelphia Union	4-3 W	0-0 D
New England Revolution	4-3 W	3-0 W
DC United	2-3 L	2-2 D
Charlotte FC	4-1 W	4-2 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 1 L	3 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Orlando City SC (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Orlando City SC

LWLWWLWDWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/05	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	1-2	2-6	9	5	L
20/05	Atlanta United USA US Open Cup	4-0	4-1	7	6	W
17/05	Atlanta United USA MLS	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
14/05	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	2-0	4-3	2	4	W
09/05	CF Montreal USA MLS	0-0	0-2	3	3	L
03/05	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-3	4-3	2	8	W
30/04	New England Revolution USA US Open Cup	2-2	4-3	3	4	W
26/04	DC United USA MLS	0-1	2-3	8	8	L
23/04	Charlotte FC USA MLS	1-1	4-1	2	7	W
19/04	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-0	0-1	4	4	L

Nashville SC

WWLDLDWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
18/07	Atlanta United USA MLS	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
24/05	New York City FC USA MLS	1-1	2-1	6	3	W
18/05	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	2-1	3-2	3	5	W
14/05	New England Revolution USA MLS	2-0	3-0	7	5	W
10/05	DC United USA MLS	0-2	2-2	8	5	D
06/05	Tigres UANL CONCACAF Champions Cup	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
03/05	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	0-0	0-0	2	2	D
29/04	Tigres UANL CONCACAF Champions Cup	0-1	0-1	7	4	L
26/04	Charlotte FC USA MLS	2-1	4-2	6	3	W
19/04	Atlanta United USA MLS	0-0	2-0	7	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Orlando City SC vs Nashville SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Nashville SC win (45%). Probabilities: Orlando City SC 32%, draw 24%, Nashville SC 45%.

How many goals are expected in Orlando City SC vs Nashville SC?

The model expects 3.81 goals (Orlando City SC 1.74 · Nashville SC 2.08), with a 58% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Orlando City SC vs Nashville SC?

The model gives a 61% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.