Football · USA MLS · 26/07, 01:30

Prediction: Philadelphia Union vs Seattle Sounders

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.18Total

Philadelphia Union1.72

Seattle Sounders1.46

1X2

43% 26% 31%

Philadelphia Union Draw Seattle Sounders

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Philadelphia Union 1-4-5 (W-D-L)

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Seattle Sounders 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Philadelphia Union 3–1–2 Seattle Sounders (6 last)

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Philadelphia Union 1460 · Seattle Sounders 1471

	Philadelphia Union	Draw	Seattle Sounders
Our model	43%	25%	32%
Market	42%	27%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.18 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Philadelphia Union: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Philadelphia Union	Seattle Sounders
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.1	1.5 / 1.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.1	0.7 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	20/50/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.5 / 5.4	2 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.1 / 0.1	3.2 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.50

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.4

View on Bet365 ↗

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.4%

Time*	1	X	2
16:14 +2’	2.20	3.50	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Philadelphia Union 3–1–2 Seattle Sounders

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/05/24 USA MLS	Philadelphia Union	2-3 HT 0-3	Seattle Sounders
19/05/19 USA MLS	Philadelphia Union	0-0 HT 0-0	Seattle Sounders
20/09/18 USA MLS	Seattle Sounders	0-1 HT 0-0	Philadelphia Union
01/10/17 USA MLS	Philadelphia Union	2-0 HT 1-0	Seattle Sounders
17/04/16 USA MLS	Seattle Sounders	2-1 HT 1-0	Philadelphia Union
25/06/15 USA MLS	Philadelphia Union	1-0 HT 0-0	Seattle Sounders

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	14	10	2	2	34	12	32
2	San Jose Earthquakes	15	10	2	3	34	15	32
3	Los Angeles FC	16	8	3	5	27	17	27
4	Real Salt Lake	14	8	2	4	26	19	26
5	FC Dallas	15	7	4	4	30	22	25
6	Seattle Sounders	14	7	3	4	18	16	24
7	Houston Dynamo	14	7	1	6	19	23	22
8	Minnesota United	15	6	4	5	18	22	22
9	LA Galaxy	16	5	5	6	22	25	20
10	St. Louis City SC	15	5	4	6	19	22	19
11	Portland Timbers	15	5	2	8	27	29	17
12	San Diego FC	15	4	5	6	30	27	17
13	Colorado Rapids	15	5	1	9	25	24	16
14	Austin FC	15	3	5	7	19	31	14
15	Sporting Kansas City	15	3	2	10	16	39	11

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Philadelphia Union

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/05	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	4-4	4-6	2	9	L
17/05	Columbus Crew USA MLS	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
14/05	Orlando City SC USA MLS	0-2	3-4	10	4	L
10/05	New England Revolution USA MLS	1-0	1-2	3	3	L
03/05	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-0	0-0	5	2	D
26/04	Columbus Crew USA MLS	0-2	0-2	4	3	L
23/04	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-0	3-3	2	9	D
19/04	DC United USA MLS	0-0	0-0	13	3	D
11/04	CF Montreal USA MLS	0-1	2-1	4	7	W
05/04	Charlotte FC USA MLS	0-1	1-2	7	8	L

Seattle Sounders

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/07	Portland Timbers USA MLS	0-1	1-5	2	2	L
25/05	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-0	0-1	5	0	L
17/05	LA Galaxy USA MLS	0-1	0-2	5	5	L
14/05	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	1-1	3-2	9	2	W
10/05	San Diego FC USA MLS	0-1	1-1	8	5	D
02/05	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	1-1	1-1	9	2	D
26/04	FC Dallas USA MLS	2-1	2-1	4	5	W
19/04	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	2-0	4-1	5	0	W
16/04	Tigres UANL CONCACAF Champions Cup	1-1	3-1	5	5	W
09/04	Tigres UANL CONCACAF Champions Cup	0-0	0-2	0	6	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Philadelphia Union vs Seattle Sounders?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Philadelphia Union win (43%). Probabilities: Philadelphia Union 43%, draw 26%, Seattle Sounders 31%.

How many goals are expected in Philadelphia Union vs Seattle Sounders?

The model expects 3.18 goals (Philadelphia Union 1.72 · Seattle Sounders 1.46), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Philadelphia Union vs Seattle Sounders?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.