Football · USA MLS · 01/08, 01:30

Prediction: New York City FC vs Toronto FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.02Total

New York City FC1.95

Toronto FC1.07

1X2

57% 24% 19%

New York City FC Draw Toronto FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

New York City FC 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DLWLWWDLLW

Toronto FC 0-5-5 (W-D-L)

DDLDLLLLDD

Head-to-head

New York City FC 6–0 Toronto FC (6 last)

New York City FC3-1Toronto FC
Toronto FC0-1New York City FC
Toronto FC2-3New York City FC

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours New York City FC (rating 1511 vs 1435).
H2H favours New York City FC: 6-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	New York City FC	Toronto FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.3	1.3 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.4 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	10/50/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 3.5	1.6 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.4 / 0.1	4.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 03:31

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.76 → 1.72▼	Pinn 1.72
X	3.81 → 3.92▲	Pinn 3.92
2	4.26 → 4.56▲	Pinn 4.56

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 5.4%

Time*	1	X	2
02:34	1.76	3.81	4.26
03:30	1.72▼	3.92▲	4.56▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · New York City FC 6–0–0 Toronto FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
04/07/25 USA MLS	New York City FC	3-1 HT 1-0	Toronto FC
26/04/25 USA MLS	Toronto FC	0-1 HT 0-0	New York City FC
12/05/24 USA MLS	Toronto FC	2-3 HT 0-2	New York City FC
17/03/24 USA MLS	New York City FC	2-1 HT 1-1	Toronto FC
24/09/23 USA MLS	New York City FC	3-0 HT 2-0	Toronto FC
27/07/23 Leagues Cup	New York City FC	5-0 HT 3-0	Toronto FC

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	16	12	3	1	33	11	39
2	Inter Miami CF	16	10	4	2	42	30	34
3	Chicago Fire	15	8	2	5	29	19	26
4	New England Revolution	15	8	2	5	22	18	26
5	FC Cincinnati	16	6	5	5	40	40	23
6	New York City FC	16	6	4	6	27	22	22
7	Charlotte FC	16	6	4	6	26	25	22
8	New York Red Bulls	16	6	4	6	26	35	22
9	DC United	16	4	7	5	22	26	19
10	Orlando City SC	16	5	2	9	27	44	17
11	Columbus Crew	16	4	4	8	22	25	16
12	Toronto FC	16	3	7	6	22	29	16
13	CF Montreal	16	4	3	9	22	32	15
14	Atlanta United	16	3	3	10	16	26	12
15	Philadelphia Union	16	2	4	10	21	31	10

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	New York City FC	Toronto FC
Charlotte FC	1-0 W	1-3 L
CF Montreal	0-1 L	0-0 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 1 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

New York City FC

DLWLWWDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/07	Columbus Crew USA MLS	1-0	2-1	0	5	W
24/05	Nashville SC USA MLS	1-1	1-2	3	3	L
21/05	Columbus Crew USA US Open Cup	0-0	0-1	4	1	L
17/05	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-1	1-1	3	7	D
14/05	Charlotte FC USA MLS	1-0	1-0	2	9	W
10/05	Columbus Crew USA MLS	2-0	3-0	3	1	W
03/05	DC United USA MLS	0-1	0-2	6	5	L
30/04	New York Red Bulls USA US Open Cup	2-1	3-1	11	2	W
25/04	CF Montreal USA MLS	0-1	0-1	1	9	L
23/04	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	2-1	4-4	2	3	D

Toronto FC

DDLDLLLLDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/07	New England Revolution USA MLS	0-0	0-0	9	2	D
17/07	CF Montreal USA MLS	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
24/05	Chicago Fire USA MLS	1-1	1-2	4	7	L
17/05	Charlotte FC USA MLS	1-2	1-3	3	3	L
09/05	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	0-1	2-4	4	3	L
06/05	Atletico Ottawa Canada Championships	1-0	1-3	3	5	L
02/05	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	1-1	1-1	8	4	D
25/04	Atlanta United USA MLS	0-0	1-2	8	2	L
23/04	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	0-1	3-3	2	9	D
18/04	Austin FC USA MLS	0-1	3-3	6	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in New York City FC vs Toronto FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a New York City FC win (57%). Probabilities: New York City FC 57%, draw 24%, Toronto FC 19%.

How many goals are expected in New York City FC vs Toronto FC?

The model expects 3.02 goals (New York City FC 1.95 · Toronto FC 1.07), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in New York City FC vs Toronto FC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.