Football · USA MLS · 02/08, 01:30

Prediction: FC Cincinnati vs San Jose Earthquakes

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.18Total

FC Cincinnati2.54

San Jose Earthquakes1.64

1X2

57% 20% 24%

FC Cincinnati Draw San Jose Earthquakes

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

2-1

Recent form · 10 last

FC Cincinnati 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWWDLDWWWL

San Jose Earthquakes 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

WDDLLLWLLD

Head-to-head

FC Cincinnati 2–1 San Jose Earthquakes (3 last)

San Jose Earthquakes2-4FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati6-0San Jose Earthquakes
San Jose Earthquakes1-0FC Cincinnati

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 81%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC Cincinnati (rating 1537 vs 1457).
H2H favours FC Cincinnati: 2-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC Cincinnati	San Jose Earthquakes
Goals for / against (FT)	3.1 / 2.4	1.5 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	1.6 / 1.2	0.9 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/40/20%	30/30/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.3	2.8 / 6.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.2	4.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.84

Under 3.52.01

Diff.: 1 · xG: 4.5

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 06:26

	Pinnacle	Best now
1	1.99 → 1.93▼	Pinn 1.93
X	4.07 → 4.12▲	Pinn 4.12
2	3.18 → 3.45▲	Pinn 3.45

See the full journey (2)

Pinnacle margin 5.2%

Time*	1	X	2
05:27	1.99	4.07	3.18
06:26	1.93▼	4.12▲	3.45▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Cincinnati 2–0–1 San Jose Earthquakes

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/06/24 USA MLS	San Jose Earthquakes	2-4 HT 0-0	FC Cincinnati
11/09/22 USA MLS	FC Cincinnati	6-0 HT 1-0	San Jose Earthquakes
05/05/19 USA MLS	San Jose Earthquakes	1-0 HT 1-0	FC Cincinnati

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	15	10	2	3	37	16	32
2	San Jose Earthquakes	16	10	2	4	34	19	32
3	Los Angeles FC	17	9	3	5	30	18	30
4	Real Salt Lake	15	8	2	5	27	22	26
5	FC Dallas	16	7	5	4	32	24	26
6	Seattle Sounders	15	7	3	5	19	19	24
7	Houston Dynamo	15	7	2	6	20	24	23
8	St. Louis City SC	16	6	4	6	22	23	22
9	Minnesota United	16	6	4	6	19	24	22
10	LA Galaxy	17	5	5	7	23	28	20
11	Colorado Rapids	16	6	1	9	26	24	19
12	Portland Timbers	16	5	3	8	29	31	18
13	San Diego FC	16	4	5	7	30	28	17
14	Austin FC	16	4	5	7	22	32	17
15	Sporting Kansas City	16	4	2	10	18	40	14

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC Cincinnati	San Jose Earthquakes
Vancouver Whitecaps	4-3 W	1-1 D
Orlando City SC	6-2 W	0-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	0 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: FC Cincinnati (2 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

FC Cincinnati

DWWDLDWWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	Columbus Crew USA MLS	1-2	1-2	5	2	L
23/07	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	3-2	4-3	1	6	W
11/07	Burnley World Club Friendlies	1-1	3-1	5	1	W
24/05	Orlando City SC USA MLS	2-1	6-2	6	5	W
17/05	San Diego FC USA MLS	1-1	3-3	2	4	D
14/05	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-1	3-5	1	5	L
10/05	Charlotte FC USA MLS	2-0	2-2	4	5	D
03/05	Chicago Fire USA MLS	2-2	3-2	1	5	W
26/04	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	2-0	2-0	4	3	W
23/04	New York City FC USA MLS	1-2	4-4	4	3	D

San Jose Earthquakes

WDDLLLWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
26/07	LA Galaxy USA MLS	0-1	1-1	6	6	D
23/07	Orlando City SC USA MLS	0-2	0-4	3	6	L
04/07	Tijuana Club Friendly List	1-2	1-2	–	–	L
24/05	Portland Timbers USA MLS	3-1	3-1	6	5	W
21/05	Colorado Rapids USA US Open Cup	0-2	0-2	9	5	L
17/05	FC Dallas USA MLS	1-1	2-3	12	6	L
14/05	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-1	2-3	6	2	L
10/05	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	1-0	1-1	2	4	D
02/05	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-1	1-1	9	4	D
29/04	Minnesota United USA US Open Cup	1-0	4-2	9	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC Cincinnati vs San Jose Earthquakes?

According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Cincinnati win (57%). Probabilities: FC Cincinnati 57%, draw 20%, San Jose Earthquakes 24%.

How many goals are expected in FC Cincinnati vs San Jose Earthquakes?

The model expects 4.18 goals (FC Cincinnati 2.54 · San Jose Earthquakes 1.64), with a 56% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in FC Cincinnati vs San Jose Earthquakes?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.