Football · USA MLS · 20/08, 01:30
Prediction: FC Cincinnati vs New York City FC
Team pages: FC Cincinnati · New York City FC
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.46Total
FC Cincinnati1.91
New York City FC1.56
1X2
FC Cincinnati
Draw
New York City FC
Markets
Under 3.5 goals 54%
Both teams to score 59%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
FC Cincinnati
6-1-3 (W-D-L)
New York City FC
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
FC Cincinnati
1–2–3
New York City FC
(6 last)
- New York City FC4-4FC Cincinnati
- FC Cincinnati0-1New York City FC
- New York City FC1-0FC Cincinnati
- FC Cincinnati0-0New York City FC
- New York City FC3-1FC Cincinnati
- FC Cincinnati1-0New York City FC
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · FC Cincinnati 1532 · New York City FC 1544
| FC Cincinnati | Draw | New York City FC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 45% | 24% | 31% |
| Market | 45% | 24% | 31% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.46 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours New York City FC: 3-2-1.
- Cards-heavy: 7.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| FC Cincinnati | New York City FC | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 3 / 2.1 | 1.5 / 0.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.4 / 1 | 1 / 0.5 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 50/40/10% | 40/50/10% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.5 / 4.6 | 0.5 / 2.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.3 / 0.1 | 4.4 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · FC Cincinnati 1–2–3 New York City FC
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23/04/26 USA MLS | New York City FC | 4-4 HT 2-1 | FC Cincinnati |
| 24/08/25 USA MLS | FC Cincinnati | 0-1 HT 0-0 | New York City FC |
| 04/05/25 USA MLS | New York City FC | 1-0 HT 1-0 | FC Cincinnati |
| 09/11/24 USA MLS Play-Offs | FC Cincinnati | 0-0 HT 0-0 | New York City FC |
| 02/11/24 USA MLS Play-Offs | New York City FC | 3-1 HT 2-0 | FC Cincinnati |
| 28/10/24 USA MLS Play-Offs | FC Cincinnati | 1-0 HT 0-0 | New York City FC |
Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nashville SC | 18 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 35 | 14 | 40 |
| 2 | Inter Miami CF | 18 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 45 | 32 | 38 |
| 3 | New England Revolution | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 28 | 23 | 30 |
| 4 | Chicago Fire | 17 | 9 | 2 | 6 | 32 | 23 | 29 |
| 5 | New York City FC | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 31 | 24 | 26 |
| 6 | FC Cincinnati | 18 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 45 | 44 | 26 |
| 7 | Charlotte FC | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 29 | 27 | 25 |
| 8 | New York Red Bulls | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 29 | 39 | 25 |
| 9 | DC United | 18 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 26 | 29 | 23 |
| 10 | Orlando City SC | 18 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 30 | 47 | 20 |
| 11 | Columbus Crew | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 26 | 28 | 20 |
| 12 | Toronto FC | 18 | 3 | 8 | 7 | 24 | 32 | 17 |
| 13 | Philadelphia Union | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 25 | 33 | 16 |
| 14 | CF Montreal | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 24 | 35 | 16 |
| 15 | Atlanta United | 18 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 19 | 33 | 12 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
FC Cincinnati
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/08 | Atlas Leagues Cup |
1-0 | 1-2 | 10 | 2 | L |
| 08/08 | Unam Pumas Leagues Cup |
1-0 | 2-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 05/08 | Pachuca Leagues Cup |
2-1 | 3-1 | 3 | 5 | W |
| 02/08 | San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS |
1-1 | 4-2 | 9 | 3 | W |
| 26/07 | Columbus Crew USA MLS |
1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 2 | L |
| 23/07 | Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS |
3-2 | 4-3 | 1 | 6 | W |
| 11/07 | Burnley World Club Friendlies |
1-1 | 3-1 | 5 | 1 | W |
| 24/05 | Orlando City SC USA MLS |
2-1 | 6-2 | 6 | 5 | W |
| 17/05 | San Diego FC USA MLS |
1-1 | 3-3 | 2 | 4 | D |
| 14/05 | Inter Miami CF USA MLS |
1-1 | 3-5 | 1 | 5 | L |
New York City FC
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08 | Cruz Azul Leagues Cup |
1-1 | 1-2 | 0 | 6 | L |
| 07/08 | Santos Laguna Leagues Cup |
0-0 | 2-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 01/08 | Toronto FC USA MLS |
1-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 6 | D |
| 26/07 | Chicago Fire USA MLS |
3-1 | 3-1 | 1 | 4 | W |
| 23/07 | Columbus Crew USA MLS |
1-0 | 2-1 | 0 | 5 | W |
| 24/05 | Nashville SC USA MLS |
1-1 | 1-2 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 21/05 | Columbus Crew USA US Open Cup |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 1 | L |
| 17/05 | New York Red Bulls USA MLS |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 7 | D |
| 14/05 | Charlotte FC USA MLS |
1-0 | 1-0 | 2 | 9 | W |
| 10/05 | Columbus Crew USA MLS |
2-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 1 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in FC Cincinnati vs New York City FC?
According to our model, the most likely result is a FC Cincinnati win (45%). Probabilities: FC Cincinnati 45%, draw 24%, New York City FC 31%.
How many goals are expected in FC Cincinnati vs New York City FC?
The model expects 3.46 goals (FC Cincinnati 1.91 · New York City FC 1.56), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in FC Cincinnati vs New York City FC?
The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.