Football · USA MLS · 30/08, 01:30

Prediction: Toronto FC vs New York City FC

Team pages: Toronto FC · New York City FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.86Total

Toronto FC1.41

New York City FC1.44

1X2

36% 26% 38%

Toronto FC Draw New York City FC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Toronto FC 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LLLDDLDWDW

New York City FC 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWWDLWWDLL

Head-to-head

Toronto FC 0–1–5 New York City FC (6 last)

New York City FC1-1Toronto FC
New York City FC3-1Toronto FC
Toronto FC0-1New York City FC
Toronto FC2-3New York City FC
New York City FC2-1Toronto FC
New York City FC3-0Toronto FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Toronto FC 1490 · New York City FC 1470

	Toronto FC	Draw	New York City FC
Our model	36%	27%	37%
Market	36%	26%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 2.86 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours New York City FC: 5-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 8.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Toronto FC	New York City FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.7	1.5 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	1.2 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/50/40%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.8	1 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0.2	5.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.55

X3.60

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.95

Under 31.85

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 2.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.55	Bet365 2.55
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.8%

Time*	1	X	2
14:55 +5’	2.55	3.60	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Toronto FC 0–1–5 New York City FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
01/08/26 USA MLS	New York City FC	1-1 HT 1-1	Toronto FC
04/07/25 USA MLS	New York City FC	3-1 HT 1-0	Toronto FC
26/04/25 USA MLS	Toronto FC	0-1 HT 0-0	New York City FC
12/05/24 USA MLS	Toronto FC	2-3 HT 0-2	New York City FC
17/03/24 USA MLS	New York City FC	2-1 HT 1-1	Toronto FC
24/09/23 USA MLS	New York City FC	3-0 HT 2-0	Toronto FC

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	21	15	4	2	43	17	49
2	Inter Miami CF	21	11	6	4	49	40	39
3	Chicago Fire	20	11	3	6	37	26	36
4	New England Revolution	20	10	3	7	32	25	33
5	Charlotte FC	21	9	5	7	38	32	32
6	FC Cincinnati	21	8	7	6	49	47	31
7	New York City FC	20	7	5	8	34	29	26
8	New York Red Bulls	21	7	5	9	31	43	26
9	Orlando City SC	21	7	3	11	34	51	24
10	Toronto FC	21	5	9	7	31	37	24
11	DC United	21	5	9	7	28	36	24
12	Philadelphia Union	21	5	6	10	31	38	21
13	CF Montreal	21	5	6	10	29	39	21
14	Columbus Crew	21	5	5	11	30	36	20
15	Atlanta United	20	5	3	12	23	35	18

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Toronto FC	New York City FC
Charlotte FC	3-3 D	1-0 W
DC United	1-2 L	0-2 L
Chicago Fire	1-2 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: New York City FC (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Toronto FC

LLLDDLDWDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	0-0	2-1	2	3	W
20/08	Charlotte FC USA MLS	1-2	3-3	6	2	D
16/08	New England Revolution USA MLS	2-0	2-1	0	3	W
01/08	New York City FC USA MLS	1-1	1-1	2	6	D
26/07	DC United USA MLS	0-1	1-2	5	2	L
23/07	New England Revolution USA MLS	0-0	0-0	9	2	D
17/07	CF Montreal USA MLS	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
24/05	Chicago Fire USA MLS	1-1	1-2	4	7	L
17/05	Charlotte FC USA MLS	1-2	1-3	3	3	L
09/05	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	0-1	2-4	4	3	L

New York City FC

LWWDLWWDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/08	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	1-1	1-2	5	6	L
17/08	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	2-0	2-3	8	7	L
01/08	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-1	1-1	3	6	D
26/07	Chicago Fire USA MLS	3-1	3-1	1	4	W
23/07	Columbus Crew USA MLS	1-0	2-1	0	5	W
24/05	Nashville SC USA MLS	1-1	1-2	3	3	L
17/05	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-1	1-1	3	7	D
14/05	Charlotte FC USA MLS	1-0	1-0	2	9	W
10/05	Columbus Crew USA MLS	2-0	3-0	3	1	W
03/05	DC United USA MLS	0-1	0-2	6	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Toronto FC vs New York City FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an New York City FC win (38%). Probabilities: Toronto FC 36%, draw 26%, New York City FC 38%.

How many goals are expected in Toronto FC vs New York City FC?

The model expects 2.86 goals (Toronto FC 1.41 · New York City FC 1.44), with a 55% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Toronto FC vs New York City FC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.