Football · USA MLS · 30/08, 01:30

Prediction: Atlanta United vs Charlotte FC

Team pages: Atlanta United · Charlotte FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.17Total

Atlanta United1.7

Charlotte FC1.47

1X2

42% 25% 32%

Atlanta United Draw Charlotte FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Atlanta United 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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Charlotte FC 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Atlanta United 2–1–3 Charlotte FC (6 last)

Charlotte FC2-2Atlanta United
Charlotte FC0-2Atlanta United
Atlanta United2-3Charlotte FC
Charlotte FC2-0Atlanta United
Charlotte FC0-1Atlanta United
Atlanta United2-3Charlotte FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Atlanta United 1487 · Charlotte FC 1532

	Atlanta United	Draw	Charlotte FC
Our model	42%	25%	32%
Market	42%	25%	32%

Estimated total (ours) 3.17 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Charlotte FC (rating 1487 vs 1532).
H2H favours Charlotte FC: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 8.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Atlanta United	Charlotte FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.8	2 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.9	1.2 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/20/50%	60/20/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 4.2	2.5 / 4.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0.2	4.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.20

X3.70

22.88

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.95

2 (+0.25)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:00

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.3%

Time*	1	X	2
14:58 +2’	2.20	3.70	2.88

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Atlanta United 2–1–3 Charlotte FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/07/26 USA MLS	Charlotte FC	2-2 HT 2-0	Atlanta United
29/04/26 USA US Open Cup	Charlotte FC	0-2 HT 0-1	Atlanta United
20/07/25 USA MLS	Atlanta United	2-3 HT 1-0	Charlotte FC
01/03/25 USA MLS	Charlotte FC	2-0 HT 0-0	Atlanta United
01/09/24 USA MLS	Charlotte FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Atlanta United
02/06/24 USA MLS	Atlanta United	2-3 HT 1-1	Charlotte FC

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	21	15	4	2	43	17	49
2	Inter Miami CF	21	11	6	4	49	40	39
3	Chicago Fire	20	11	3	6	37	26	36
4	New England Revolution	20	10	3	7	32	25	33
5	Charlotte FC	21	9	5	7	38	32	32
6	FC Cincinnati	21	8	7	6	49	47	31
7	New York City FC	20	7	5	8	34	29	26
8	New York Red Bulls	21	7	5	9	31	43	26
9	Orlando City SC	21	7	3	11	34	51	24
10	Toronto FC	21	5	9	7	31	37	24
11	DC United	21	5	9	7	28	36	24
12	Philadelphia Union	21	5	6	10	31	38	21
13	CF Montreal	21	5	6	10	29	39	21
14	Columbus Crew	21	5	5	11	30	36	20
15	Atlanta United	20	5	3	12	23	35	18

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Atlanta United	Charlotte FC
New York Red Bulls	2-1 W	2-0 W
New England Revolution	1-4 L	1-0 W
Columbus Crew	0-2 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 2 L	3 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Charlotte FC (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Atlanta United

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/08	Minnesota United USA MLS	1-0	2-1	4	7	W
16/08	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-1	2-1	3	3	W
02/08	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	1-0	2-3	2	6	L
26/07	New England Revolution USA MLS	0-2	1-4	6	4	L
23/07	Charlotte FC USA MLS	0-2	2-2	3	4	D
18/07	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
24/05	Columbus Crew USA MLS	0-2	0-2	3	5	L
17/05	Orlando City SC USA MLS	0-1	1-1	10	3	D
10/05	LA Galaxy USA MLS	0-0	1-2	6	4	L
03/05	CF Montreal USA MLS	2-1	3-1	3	7	W

Charlotte FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	DC United USA MLS	0-0	3-1	4	5	W
20/08	Toronto FC USA MLS	2-1	3-3	5	2	D
16/08	Columbus Crew USA MLS	2-1	3-1	1	3	W
02/08	Chicago Fire USA MLS	1-1	1-2	6	3	L
26/07	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	2-0	2-0	1	6	W
23/07	Atlanta United USA MLS	2-0	2-2	6	4	D
24/05	New England Revolution USA MLS	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
17/05	Toronto FC USA MLS	2-1	3-1	7	3	W
14/05	New York City FC USA MLS	0-1	0-1	8	9	L
10/05	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	0-2	2-2	7	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Atlanta United vs Charlotte FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Atlanta United win (42%). Probabilities: Atlanta United 42%, draw 25%, Charlotte FC 32%.

How many goals are expected in Atlanta United vs Charlotte FC?

The model expects 3.17 goals (Atlanta United 1.7 · Charlotte FC 1.47), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Atlanta United vs Charlotte FC?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.