Football · USA MLS · 29/08, 22:30

Prediction: Seattle Sounders vs Chicago Fire

Team pages: Seattle Sounders · Chicago Fire

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.15Total

Seattle Sounders1.5

Chicago Fire1.65

1X2

34% 25% 41%

Seattle Sounders Draw Chicago Fire

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Seattle Sounders 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLLLLD

Chicago Fire 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWLLWWWD

Head-to-head

Seattle Sounders 3–1–2 Chicago Fire (6 last)

Seattle Sounders2-1Chicago Fire
Chicago Fire1-0Seattle Sounders
Chicago Fire2-1Seattle Sounders
Seattle Sounders2-1Chicago Fire
Chicago Fire2-4Seattle Sounders
Seattle Sounders1-1Chicago Fire

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Seattle Sounders 1403 · Chicago Fire 1576

	Seattle Sounders	Draw	Chicago Fire
Our model	34%	26%	40%
Market	34%	25%	41%

Estimated total (ours) 3.15 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chicago Fire (rating 1403 vs 1576).
H2H favours Seattle Sounders: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Seattle Sounders	Chicago Fire
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 2.1	1.8 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.7	0.9 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/60/40%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.3	1.6 / 3.9
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0.1	4.3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.75

X3.70

22.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.77

2 (-0.25)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 16:46

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.55 → 2.75▲	Pinn 2.79
X	3.70 → 3.70	Pinn 4.05 ★
2	2.45 → 2.30▼	Bet365 2.30

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 6.9% Pinnacle margin 5%

Time*	1	X	2
14:56 +2’	2.55	3.70	2.45
16:42 +4’	2.75▲	3.70	2.30▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
02:57 +1’	2.59	3.94	2.44
09:39 +1’	2.60▲	3.98▲	2.41▼
10:48 +1’	2.68▲	3.98	2.35▼
13:20	2.79▲	4.05▲	2.25▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Other markets

Over/Under 3

Go premium to see every market's movement

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Seattle Sounders 3–1–2 Chicago Fire

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/06/24 USA MLS	Seattle Sounders	2-1 HT 0-1	Chicago Fire
17/07/22 USA MLS	Chicago Fire	1-0 HT 1-0	Seattle Sounders
14/07/20 USA MLS is Back Tournament	Chicago Fire	2-1 HT 0-0	Seattle Sounders
01/03/20 USA MLS	Seattle Sounders	2-1 HT 0-0	Chicago Fire
16/03/19 USA MLS	Chicago Fire	2-4 HT 0-2	Seattle Sounders
24/06/18 USA MLS	Seattle Sounders	1-1 HT 1-1	Chicago Fire

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	20	12	4	4	45	18	40
2	Houston Dynamo	21	12	2	7	30	26	38
3	Los Angeles FC	22	10	5	7	36	22	35
4	San Jose Earthquakes	21	10	3	8	39	33	33
5	FC Dallas	21	9	6	6	38	34	33
6	St. Louis City SC	21	9	6	6	30	27	33
7	Colorado Rapids	21	9	1	11	30	28	28
8	Real Salt Lake	20	8	4	8	34	32	28
9	Portland Timbers	21	8	4	9	38	37	28
10	Minnesota United	21	7	7	7	27	29	28
11	San Diego FC	21	7	6	8	37	32	27
12	LA Galaxy	22	6	8	8	27	32	26
13	Seattle Sounders	20	7	4	9	22	27	25
14	Austin FC	21	5	6	10	26	40	21
15	Sporting Kansas City	20	4	3	13	19	49	15

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Seattle Sounders

WLLLLLLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	0-1	1-1	4	3	D
20/08	Austin FC USA MLS	0-0	1-2	7	1	L
17/08	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-0	0-2	1	3	L
02/08	Portland Timbers USA MLS	1-1	1-2	5	4	L
26/07	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	0-1	0-1	1	1	L
23/07	Austin FC USA MLS	1-1	1-3	4	5	L
17/07	Portland Timbers USA MLS	0-1	1-5	2	2	L
25/05	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-0	0-1	5	0	L
17/05	LA Galaxy USA MLS	0-1	0-2	5	5	L
14/05	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	1-1	3-2	9	2	W

Chicago Fire

LWWWLLWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	1-0	1-1	2	3	D
20/08	Orlando City SC USA MLS	1-0	2-1	3	4	W
17/08	Portland Timbers USA MLS	2-0	2-1	0	4	W
02/08	Charlotte FC USA MLS	1-1	2-1	8	3	W
26/07	New York City FC USA MLS	1-3	1-3	2	4	L
23/07	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-1	2-3	4	2	L
24/05	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-1	2-1	3	7	W
16/05	CF Montreal USA MLS	1-0	2-0	3	7	W
14/05	DC United USA MLS	0-1	3-1	8	5	W
09/05	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-1	1-3	6	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Seattle Sounders vs Chicago Fire?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Chicago Fire win (41%). Probabilities: Seattle Sounders 34%, draw 25%, Chicago Fire 41%.

How many goals are expected in Seattle Sounders vs Chicago Fire?

The model expects 3.15 goals (Seattle Sounders 1.5 · Chicago Fire 1.65), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Seattle Sounders vs Chicago Fire?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.