Football · USA MLS · 20/08, 01:30

Prediction: Columbus Crew vs CF Montreal

Team pages: Columbus Crew · CF Montreal

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.87Total

Columbus Crew1.93

CF Montreal0.94

1X2

60% 23% 17%

Columbus Crew Draw CF Montreal

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Columbus Crew 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

DWWDLWDWWD

CF Montreal 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

WDLDWWDLLD

Head-to-head

Columbus Crew 4–2–0 CF Montreal (6 last)

CF Montreal1-1Columbus Crew
Columbus Crew2-1CF Montreal
CF Montreal1-3Columbus Crew
Columbus Crew0-0CF Montreal
Columbus Crew2-1CF Montreal
CF Montreal2-4Columbus Crew

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Columbus Crew 1526 · CF Montreal 1486

	Columbus Crew	Draw	CF Montreal
Our model	59%	24%	17%
Market	60%	22%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 2.87 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Columbus Crew (rating 1526 vs 1486).
H2H favours Columbus Crew: 4-2-0.
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Columbus Crew	CF Montreal
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1	1.4 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.5	0.3 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/30/20%	10/60/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 3.8	2.2 / 6.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.3	3.5 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.55

X4.20

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.93

2 (+1)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.55 → 1.55	Bet365 1.55
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.4%

Time*	1	X	2
02:47 +4’	1.55	4.20	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Columbus Crew 4–2–0 CF Montreal

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/05/25 USA MLS	CF Montreal	1-1 HT 1-0	Columbus Crew
06/04/25 USA MLS	Columbus Crew	2-1 HT 2-0	CF Montreal
16/05/24 USA MLS	CF Montreal	1-3 HT 1-1	Columbus Crew
28/04/24 USA MLS	Columbus Crew	0-0 HT 0-0	CF Montreal
22/10/23 USA MLS	Columbus Crew	2-1 HT 1-1	CF Montreal
03/09/23 USA MLS	CF Montreal	2-4 HT 0-3	Columbus Crew

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	18	12	4	2	35	14	40
2	Inter Miami CF	18	11	5	2	45	32	38
3	New England Revolution	18	9	3	6	28	23	30
4	Chicago Fire	17	9	2	6	32	23	29
5	New York City FC	18	7	5	6	31	24	26
6	FC Cincinnati	18	7	5	6	45	44	26
7	Charlotte FC	18	7	4	7	29	27	25
8	New York Red Bulls	18	7	4	7	29	39	25
9	DC United	18	5	8	5	26	29	23
10	Orlando City SC	18	6	2	10	30	47	20
11	Columbus Crew	18	5	5	8	26	28	20
12	Toronto FC	18	3	8	7	24	32	17
13	Philadelphia Union	18	4	4	10	25	33	16
14	CF Montreal	18	4	4	10	24	35	16
15	Atlanta United	18	3	3	12	19	33	12

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Columbus Crew

DWWDLWDWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/08	Unam Pumas Leagues Cup	1-1	1-1	10	7	D
08/08	Pachuca Leagues Cup	2-0	2-1	3	6	W
05/08	Atlas Leagues Cup	2-0	3-1	3	3	W
02/08	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-2	2-2	2	3	D
26/07	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	2-1	2-1	4	2	W
23/07	New York City FC USA MLS	0-1	1-2	3	5	L
12/07	Burnley Club Friendly List	0-0	1-1	–	–	D
24/05	Atlanta United USA MLS	2-0	2-0	2	5	W
21/05	New York City FC USA US Open Cup	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
17/05	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	1-0	1-1	4	4	D

CF Montreal

WDLDWWDLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	New England Revolution USA MLS	0-2	2-2	6	1	D
26/07	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	0-0	0-1	5	2	L
23/07	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
17/07	Toronto FC USA MLS	0-0	0-0	9	2	D
13/07	Vancouver FC Canada Championships	0-0	2-1	4	6	W
09/07	Vancouver FC Canada Championships	0-0	2-1	2	3	W
24/05	DC United USA MLS	1-2	4-4	4	7	D
16/05	Chicago Fire USA MLS	0-1	0-2	16	7	L
14/05	Portland Timbers USA MLS	2-1	2-2	6	3	D
09/05	Orlando City SC USA MLS	0-0	2-0	11	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Columbus Crew vs CF Montreal?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Columbus Crew win (60%). Probabilities: Columbus Crew 60%, draw 23%, CF Montreal 17%.

How many goals are expected in Columbus Crew vs CF Montreal?

The model expects 2.87 goals (Columbus Crew 1.93 · CF Montreal 0.94), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Columbus Crew vs CF Montreal?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.