Football · USA MLS · 20/08, 01:30

Prediction: DC United vs New England Revolution

Team pages: DC United · New England Revolution

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.26Total

DC United1.86

New England Revolution1.4

1X2

47% 25% 28%

DC United Draw New England Revolution

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

DC United 3-6-1 (W-D-L)

DWWDLDDDWD

New England Revolution 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWWLWLDWDL

Head-to-head

DC United 2–1–3 New England Revolution (6 last)

New England Revolution1-0DC United
New England Revolution2-0DC United
DC United1-1New England Revolution
New England Revolution1-2DC United
DC United3-1New England Revolution
New England Revolution4-0DC United

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · DC United 1509 · New England Revolution 1487

	DC United	Draw	New England Revolution
Our model	47%	25%	28%
Market	47%	26%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 3.26 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours New England Revolution: 3-1-2.
High corners: 11.3 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	DC United	New England Revolution
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 2	1.4 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 0.6	0.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/10/30%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.4 / 5.7	3.2 / 5.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.2 / 0.2	3.7 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.60

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:51

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.2%

Time*	1	X	2
02:42 +8’	2.00	3.60	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · DC United 2–1–3 New England Revolution

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Date	Home	Score	Away
12/04/26 USA MLS	New England Revolution	1-0 HT 1-0	DC United
10/08/25 USA MLS	New England Revolution	2-0 HT 0-0	DC United
29/05/25 USA MLS	DC United	1-1 HT 0-1	New England Revolution
06/10/24 USA MLS	New England Revolution	1-2 HT 0-2	DC United
25/02/24 USA MLS	DC United	3-1 HT 1-0	New England Revolution
16/07/23 USA MLS	New England Revolution	4-0 HT 2-0	DC United

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	18	12	4	2	35	14	40
2	Inter Miami CF	18	11	5	2	45	32	38
3	New England Revolution	18	9	3	6	28	23	30
4	Chicago Fire	17	9	2	6	32	23	29
5	New York City FC	18	7	5	6	31	24	26
6	FC Cincinnati	18	7	5	6	45	44	26
7	Charlotte FC	18	7	4	7	29	27	25
8	New York Red Bulls	18	7	4	7	29	39	25
9	DC United	18	5	8	5	26	29	23
10	Orlando City SC	18	6	2	10	30	47	20
11	Columbus Crew	18	5	5	8	26	28	20
12	Toronto FC	18	3	8	7	24	32	17
13	Philadelphia Union	18	4	4	10	25	33	16
14	CF Montreal	18	4	4	10	24	35	16
15	Atlanta United	18	3	3	12	19	33	12

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	DC United	New England Revolution
Nashville SC	2-2 D	0-3 L
Toronto FC	2-1 W	0-0 D
Houston Dynamo	1-1 D	0-2 L
CF Montreal	4-4 D	2-2 D
Orlando City SC	3-2 W	3-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 3 D 0 L	0 W 2 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: DC United (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

DC United

DWWDLDDDWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-2	2-2	8	5	D
26/07	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-0	2-1	8	2	W
23/07	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-1	1-1	3	6	D
24/05	CF Montreal USA MLS	2-1	4-4	6	7	D
17/05	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-0	1-1	5	8	D
14/05	Chicago Fire USA MLS	1-0	1-3	7	5	L
10/05	Nashville SC USA MLS	2-0	2-2	7	5	D
03/05	New York City FC USA MLS	1-0	2-0	3	5	W
26/04	Orlando City SC USA MLS	1-0	3-2	7	8	W
23/04	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	1-2	4-4	3	3	D

New England Revolution

LWWLWLDWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
08/08	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-1	0-2	9	3	L
02/08	CF Montreal USA MLS	2-0	2-2	3	1	D
26/07	Atlanta United USA MLS	2-0	4-1	4	4	W
23/07	Toronto FC USA MLS	0-0	0-0	7	2	D
24/05	Charlotte FC USA MLS	0-1	0-1	4	6	L
17/05	Minnesota United USA MLS	1-1	2-1	8	3	W
14/05	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-2	0-3	6	5	L
10/05	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	0-1	2-1	9	3	W
03/05	Charlotte FC USA MLS	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
30/04	Orlando City SC USA US Open Cup	2-2	3-4	3	4	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in DC United vs New England Revolution?

According to our model, the most likely result is a DC United win (47%). Probabilities: DC United 47%, draw 25%, New England Revolution 28%.

How many goals are expected in DC United vs New England Revolution?

The model expects 3.26 goals (DC United 1.86 · New England Revolution 1.4), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in DC United vs New England Revolution?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.