Football · USA MLS · 20/08, 01:30

Prediction: New York Red Bulls vs Nashville SC

Team pages: New York Red Bulls · Nashville SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.12Total

New York Red Bulls1.46

Nashville SC1.67

1X2

33% 25% 42%

New York Red Bulls Draw Nashville SC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

New York Red Bulls 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWWDWLLW

Nashville SC 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

New York Red Bulls 2–3–1 Nashville SC (6 last)

Nashville SC2-1New York Red Bulls
New York Red Bulls2-0Nashville SC
New York Red Bulls0-0Nashville SC
Nashville SC0-0New York Red Bulls
Nashville SC0-1New York Red Bulls
New York Red Bulls0-0Nashville SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · New York Red Bulls 1472 · Nashville SC 1507

	New York Red Bulls	Draw	Nashville SC
Our model	33%	26%	42%
Market	33%	25%	42%

Estimated total (ours) 3.12 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours New York Red Bulls: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	New York Red Bulls	Nashville SC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.9	1.7 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.8	1.1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	50/20/30%	50/50/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 5.4	1.7 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.1	3.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.70

22.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.82

2 (-0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.77

Under 32.02

Diff.: 0 · xG: 3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	2.20 → 2.20	Bet365 2.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 8.2%

Time*	1	X	2
02:46 +4’	2.80	3.70	2.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · New York Red Bulls 2–3–1 Nashville SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
15/05/25 USA MLS	Nashville SC	2-1 HT 1-0	New York Red Bulls
02/03/25 USA MLS	New York Red Bulls	2-0 HT 2-0	Nashville SC
16/06/24 USA MLS	New York Red Bulls	0-0 HT 0-0	Nashville SC
25/02/24 USA MLS	Nashville SC	0-0 HT 0-0	New York Red Bulls
22/10/23 USA MLS	Nashville SC	0-1 HT 0-0	New York Red Bulls
05/03/23 USA MLS	New York Red Bulls	0-0 HT 0-0	Nashville SC

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	18	12	4	2	35	14	40
2	Inter Miami CF	18	11	5	2	45	32	38
3	New England Revolution	18	9	3	6	28	23	30
4	Chicago Fire	17	9	2	6	32	23	29
5	New York City FC	18	7	5	6	31	24	26
6	FC Cincinnati	18	7	5	6	45	44	26
7	Charlotte FC	18	7	4	7	29	27	25
8	New York Red Bulls	18	7	4	7	29	39	25
9	DC United	18	5	8	5	26	29	23
10	Orlando City SC	18	6	2	10	30	47	20
11	Columbus Crew	18	5	5	8	26	28	20
12	Toronto FC	18	3	8	7	24	32	17
13	Philadelphia Union	18	4	4	10	25	33	16
14	CF Montreal	18	4	4	10	24	35	16
15	Atlanta United	18	3	3	12	19	33	12

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	New York Red Bulls	Nashville SC
Orlando City SC	3-2 W	0-1 L
New York City FC	1-1 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

New York Red Bulls

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
02/08	Orlando City SC USA MLS	2-0	3-2	5	5	W
26/07	Charlotte FC USA MLS	0-2	0-2	6	6	L
23/07	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	1-1	1-3	6	3	L
24/05	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	2-0	2-1	1	3	W
17/05	New York City FC USA MLS	1-0	1-1	9	7	D
14/05	Columbus Crew USA MLS	2-1	3-2	3	5	W
09/05	Chicago Fire USA MLS	1-0	3-1	3	4	W
03/05	FC Dallas USA MLS	0-0	0-2	8	2	L
30/04	New York City FC USA US Open Cup	1-2	1-3	6	2	L
26/04	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	0-2	0-2	7	3	L

Nashville SC

WWWWWLDLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/08	Monterrey Leagues Cup	1-0	1-2	3	3	L
10/08	Atletico San Luis Leagues Cup	3-1	4-1	3	4	W
06/08	Leon Leagues Cup	0-0	0-1	4	5	L
02/08	DC United USA MLS	2-0	2-2	3	5	D
26/07	Orlando City SC USA MLS	0-0	0-1	7	1	L
23/07	CF Montreal USA MLS	0-0	1-0	3	2	W
18/07	Atlanta United USA MLS	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
24/05	New York City FC USA MLS	1-1	2-1	6	3	W
18/05	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	2-1	3-2	3	5	W
14/05	New England Revolution USA MLS	2-0	3-0	7	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in New York Red Bulls vs Nashville SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Nashville SC win (42%). Probabilities: New York Red Bulls 33%, draw 25%, Nashville SC 42%.

How many goals are expected in New York Red Bulls vs Nashville SC?

The model expects 3.12 goals (New York Red Bulls 1.46 · Nashville SC 1.67), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in New York Red Bulls vs Nashville SC?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.