Football · USA MLS · 20/08, 01:30

Prediction: Orlando City SC vs Chicago Fire

Team pages: Orlando City SC · Chicago Fire

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.97Total

Orlando City SC1.84

Chicago Fire2.13

1X2

33% 23% 44%

Orlando City SC Draw Chicago Fire

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Orlando City SC 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WDWLWWLWLD

Chicago Fire 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

LLWWWLLWWW

Head-to-head

Orlando City SC 2–2–2 Chicago Fire (6 last)

Chicago Fire3-1Orlando City SC
Orlando City SC1-3Chicago Fire
Chicago Fire0-0Orlando City SC
Orlando City SC4-2Chicago Fire
Chicago Fire1-1Orlando City SC
Chicago Fire1-3Orlando City SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Orlando City SC 1513 · Chicago Fire 1532

	Orlando City SC	Draw	Chicago Fire
Our model	33%	22%	44%
Market	33%	24%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 3.97 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 9.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Orlando City SC	Chicago Fire
Goals for / against (FT)	2.3 / 1.9	2 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.4	0.8 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	70/10/20%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.5	2.2 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0	4.4 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.90

22.15

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.90

Under 3.51.90

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.9

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.9%

Time*	1	X	2
02:47 +3’	2.88	3.90	2.15

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Orlando City SC 2–2–2 Chicago Fire

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/10/25 USA MLS Play-Offs	Chicago Fire	3-1 HT 0-0	Orlando City SC
01/06/25 USA MLS	Orlando City SC	1-3 HT 1-3	Chicago Fire
04/05/25 USA MLS	Chicago Fire	0-0 HT 0-0	Orlando City SC
23/06/24 USA MLS	Orlando City SC	4-2 HT 3-0	Chicago Fire
30/05/24 USA MLS	Chicago Fire	1-1 HT 0-1	Orlando City SC
21/08/23 USA MLS	Chicago Fire	1-3 HT 0-0	Orlando City SC

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	18	12	4	2	35	14	40
2	Inter Miami CF	18	11	5	2	45	32	38
3	New England Revolution	18	9	3	6	28	23	30
4	Chicago Fire	17	9	2	6	32	23	29
5	New York City FC	18	7	5	6	31	24	26
6	FC Cincinnati	18	7	5	6	45	44	26
7	Charlotte FC	18	7	4	7	29	27	25
8	New York Red Bulls	18	7	4	7	29	39	25
9	DC United	18	5	8	5	26	29	23
10	Orlando City SC	18	6	2	10	30	47	20
11	Columbus Crew	18	5	5	8	26	28	20
12	Toronto FC	18	3	8	7	24	32	17
13	Philadelphia Union	18	4	4	10	25	33	16
14	CF Montreal	18	4	4	10	24	35	16
15	Atlanta United	18	3	3	12	19	33	12

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Orlando City SC	Chicago Fire
New York Red Bulls	2-3 L	1-3 L
FC Cincinnati	2-6 L	2-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 2 L	0 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Orlando City SC

WDWLWWLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/08	Atletico San Luis Leagues Cup	1-0	2-2	3	5	D
09/08	Leon Leagues Cup	1-0	1-2	7	4	L
06/08	Monterrey Leagues Cup	1-0	2-1	5	8	W
02/08	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-2	2-3	4	5	L
26/07	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-0	1-0	2	1	W
23/07	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	2-0	4-0	2	6	W
24/05	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	1-2	2-6	9	5	L
20/05	Atlanta United USA US Open Cup	4-0	4-1	7	6	W
17/05	Atlanta United USA MLS	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
14/05	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	2-0	4-3	2	4	W

Chicago Fire

LLWWWLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/08	Santos Laguna Leagues Cup	0-1	3-1	7	5	W
07/08	Necaxa Leagues Cup	1-0	2-0	6	3	W
02/08	Charlotte FC USA MLS	1-1	2-1	8	3	W
26/07	New York City FC USA MLS	1-3	1-3	2	4	L
23/07	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	1-1	2-3	4	2	L
24/05	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-1	2-1	3	7	W
16/05	CF Montreal USA MLS	1-0	2-0	3	7	W
14/05	DC United USA MLS	0-1	3-1	8	5	W
09/05	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-1	1-3	6	4	L
03/05	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	2-2	2-3	10	5	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Orlando City SC vs Chicago Fire?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Chicago Fire win (44%). Probabilities: Orlando City SC 33%, draw 23%, Chicago Fire 44%.

How many goals are expected in Orlando City SC vs Chicago Fire?

The model expects 3.97 goals (Orlando City SC 1.84 · Chicago Fire 2.13), with a 53% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Orlando City SC vs Chicago Fire?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.