Football · USA MLS · 20/08, 01:30

Prediction: Philadelphia Union vs Inter Miami CF

Team pages: Philadelphia Union · Inter Miami CF

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.93Total

Philadelphia Union1.96

Inter Miami CF1.96

1X2

38% 24% 38%

Philadelphia Union Draw Inter Miami CF

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Philadelphia Union 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Inter Miami CF 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Philadelphia Union 0–1–5 Inter Miami CF (6 last)

Inter Miami CF6-4Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia Union3-3Inter Miami CF
Inter Miami CF2-1Philadelphia Union
Inter Miami CF3-1Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia Union1-2Inter Miami CF
Philadelphia Union1-4Inter Miami CF

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Philadelphia Union 1491 · Inter Miami CF 1563

	Philadelphia Union	Draw	Inter Miami CF
Our model	39%	22%	39%
Market	38%	24%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 3.93 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 77%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Inter Miami CF (rating 1491 vs 1563).
H2H favours Inter Miami CF: 5-1-0.
High corners: 12.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Philadelphia Union	Inter Miami CF
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.8	3 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.9 / 1	1.7 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	30/30/40%	60/40/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 6.1	2.9 / 6.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0.1	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.80

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.88

Under 3.251.93

Diff.: 1.1 · xG: 4.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:50

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.9%

Time*	1	X	2
02:41 +9’	2.45	3.80	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Philadelphia Union 0–1–5 Inter Miami CF

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Date	Home	Score	Away
25/05/26 USA MLS	Inter Miami CF	6-4 HT 4-4	Philadelphia Union
25/05/25 USA MLS	Philadelphia Union	3-3 HT 2-0	Inter Miami CF
30/03/25 USA MLS	Inter Miami CF	2-1 HT 1-0	Philadelphia Union
15/09/24 USA MLS	Inter Miami CF	3-1 HT 2-1	Philadelphia Union
16/06/24 USA MLS	Philadelphia Union	1-2 HT 1-0	Inter Miami CF
16/08/23 Leagues Cup	Philadelphia Union	1-4 HT 0-3	Inter Miami CF

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	18	12	4	2	35	14	40
2	Inter Miami CF	18	11	5	2	45	32	38
3	New England Revolution	18	9	3	6	28	23	30
4	Chicago Fire	17	9	2	6	32	23	29
5	New York City FC	18	7	5	6	31	24	26
6	FC Cincinnati	18	7	5	6	45	44	26
7	Charlotte FC	18	7	4	7	29	27	25
8	New York Red Bulls	18	7	4	7	29	39	25
9	DC United	18	5	8	5	26	29	23
10	Orlando City SC	18	6	2	10	30	47	20
11	Columbus Crew	18	5	5	8	26	28	20
12	Toronto FC	18	3	8	7	24	32	17
13	Philadelphia Union	18	4	4	10	25	33	16
14	CF Montreal	18	4	4	10	24	35	16
15	Atlanta United	18	3	3	12	19	33	12

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Philadelphia Union

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/08	Necaxa Leagues Cup	2-0	3-1	4	5	W
07/08	Cruz Azul Leagues Cup	0-1	0-1	7	3	L
02/08	Atlanta United USA MLS	0-1	3-2	12	6	W
26/07	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-0	1-0	6	1	W
23/07	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	1-1	3-1	8	3	W
25/05	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	4-4	4-6	2	9	L
17/05	Columbus Crew USA MLS	0-1	1-1	4	4	D
14/05	Orlando City SC USA MLS	0-2	3-4	10	4	L
10/05	New England Revolution USA MLS	1-0	1-2	3	3	L
03/05	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-0	0-0	5	2	D

Inter Miami CF

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/08	Leon Leagues Cup	1-0	2-3	11	5	L
09/08	Monterrey Leagues Cup	1-0	1-2	6	6	L
06/08	Atletico San Luis Leagues Cup	4-1	4-2	1	1	W
02/08	Columbus Crew USA MLS	2-1	2-2	5	3	D
26/07	CF Montreal USA MLS	0-0	1-0	6	2	W
23/07	Chicago Fire USA MLS	1-1	3-2	8	2	W
25/05	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	4-4	6-4	4	9	W
18/05	Portland Timbers USA MLS	2-0	2-0	8	4	W
14/05	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	1-1	5-3	8	5	W
09/05	Toronto FC USA MLS	1-0	4-2	4	3	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Philadelphia Union vs Inter Miami CF?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Philadelphia Union win (38%). Probabilities: Philadelphia Union 38%, draw 24%, Inter Miami CF 38%.

How many goals are expected in Philadelphia Union vs Inter Miami CF?

The model expects 3.93 goals (Philadelphia Union 1.96 · Inter Miami CF 1.96), with a 56% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Philadelphia Union vs Inter Miami CF?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.