Football · USA MLS · 20/08, 01:30

Prediction: Toronto FC vs Charlotte FC

Team pages: Toronto FC · Charlotte FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.59Total

Toronto FC1.37

Charlotte FC1.22

1X2

40% 27% 33%

Toronto FC Draw Charlotte FC

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Toronto FC 0-4-6 (W-D-L)

LDLLLLDDLD

Charlotte FC 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

DLWWDWLWWL

Head-to-head

Toronto FC 1–5 Charlotte FC (6 last)

Charlotte FC3-1Toronto FC
Charlotte FC2-0Toronto FC
Toronto FC0-2Charlotte FC
Charlotte FC3-2Toronto FC
Toronto FC1-0Charlotte FC
Charlotte FC3-0Toronto FC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Toronto FC 1435 · Charlotte FC 1501

	Toronto FC	Draw	Charlotte FC
Our model	39%	29%	32%
Market	41%	26%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 2.59 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Charlotte FC (rating 1435 vs 1501).
H2H favours Charlotte FC: 5-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Toronto FC	Charlotte FC
Goals for / against (FT)	0.9 / 1.8	1.6 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.9 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	10/60/30%	50/30/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 4.9	2.3 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0	4.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.60

22.80

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)2.02

2 (+0.25)1.77

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:49

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7%

Time*	1	X	2
02:49 +1’	2.30	3.60	2.80

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Toronto FC 1–0–5 Charlotte FC

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
17/05/26 USA MLS	Charlotte FC	3-1 HT 2-1	Toronto FC
27/07/25 USA MLS	Charlotte FC	2-0 HT 0-0	Toronto FC
01/06/25 USA MLS	Toronto FC	0-2 HT 0-0	Charlotte FC
14/04/24 USA MLS	Charlotte FC	3-2 HT 1-0	Toronto FC
09/03/24 USA MLS	Toronto FC	1-0 HT 0-0	Charlotte FC
05/10/23 USA MLS	Charlotte FC	3-0 HT 2-0	Toronto FC

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Eastern Conference

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Nashville SC	18	12	4	2	35	14	40
2	Inter Miami CF	18	11	5	2	45	32	38
3	New England Revolution	18	9	3	6	28	23	30
4	Chicago Fire	17	9	2	6	32	23	29
5	New York City FC	18	7	5	6	31	24	26
6	FC Cincinnati	18	7	5	6	45	44	26
7	Charlotte FC	18	7	4	7	29	27	25
8	New York Red Bulls	18	7	4	7	29	39	25
9	DC United	18	5	8	5	26	29	23
10	Orlando City SC	18	6	2	10	30	47	20
11	Columbus Crew	18	5	5	8	26	28	20
12	Toronto FC	18	3	8	7	24	32	17
13	Philadelphia Union	18	4	4	10	25	33	16
14	CF Montreal	18	4	4	10	24	35	16
15	Atlanta United	18	3	3	12	19	33	12

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Toronto FC	Charlotte FC
New York City FC	1-1 D	0-1 L
New England Revolution	0-0 D	1-0 W
Chicago Fire	1-2 L	1-2 L
Atlanta United	1-2 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	0 W 2 D 2 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Charlotte FC (2 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Toronto FC

LDLLLLDDLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/08	New York City FC USA MLS	1-1	1-1	2	6	D
26/07	DC United USA MLS	0-1	1-2	5	2	L
23/07	New England Revolution USA MLS	0-0	0-0	9	2	D
17/07	CF Montreal USA MLS	0-0	0-0	3	2	D
24/05	Chicago Fire USA MLS	1-1	1-2	4	7	L
17/05	Charlotte FC USA MLS	1-2	1-3	3	3	L
09/05	Inter Miami CF USA MLS	0-1	2-4	4	3	L
06/05	Atletico Ottawa Canada Championships	1-0	1-3	3	5	L
02/05	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	1-1	1-1	8	4	D
25/04	Atlanta United USA MLS	0-0	1-2	8	2	L

Charlotte FC

DLWWDWLWWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/08	Pachuca Leagues Cup	0-0	0-1	5	3	L
08/08	Atlas Leagues Cup	0-0	2-0	1	6	W
05/08	Unam Pumas Leagues Cup	1-0	3-0	6	3	W
02/08	Chicago Fire USA MLS	1-1	1-2	6	3	L
26/07	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	2-0	2-0	1	6	W
23/07	Atlanta United USA MLS	2-0	2-2	6	4	D
24/05	New England Revolution USA MLS	1-0	1-0	3	6	W
17/05	Toronto FC USA MLS	2-1	3-1	7	3	W
14/05	New York City FC USA MLS	0-1	0-1	8	9	L
10/05	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	0-2	2-2	7	5	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Toronto FC vs Charlotte FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Toronto FC win (40%). Probabilities: Toronto FC 40%, draw 27%, Charlotte FC 33%.

How many goals are expected in Toronto FC vs Charlotte FC?

The model expects 2.59 goals (Toronto FC 1.37 · Charlotte FC 1.22), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Toronto FC vs Charlotte FC?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.