Football · USA MLS · 20/08, 02:00

Prediction: Sporting Kansas City vs St. Louis City SC

Team pages: Sporting Kansas City · St. Louis City SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.36Total

Sporting Kansas City1.46

St. Louis City SC1.89

1X2

29% 24% 47%

Sporting Kansas City Draw St. Louis City SC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Sporting Kansas City 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

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St. Louis City SC 7-3-0 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Sporting Kansas City 1–3–2 St. Louis City SC (6 last)

St. Louis City SC3-2Sporting Kansas City
St. Louis City SC2-2Sporting Kansas City
Sporting Kansas City2-0St. Louis City SC
St. Louis City SC3-1Sporting Kansas City
Sporting Kansas City1-1St. Louis City SC
Sporting Kansas City3-3St. Louis City SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Sporting Kansas City 1456 · St. Louis City SC 1578

	Sporting Kansas City	Draw	St. Louis City SC
Our model	29%	24%	47%
Market	29%	25%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 3.36 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours St. Louis City SC (rating 1456 vs 1578).
H2H favours St. Louis City SC: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 8.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Sporting Kansas City	St. Louis City SC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.3	2 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.3	1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	60/30/10%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.9	2.1 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.6 / 0.3	4.9 / 0.6

Odds Bet365

13.25

X3.80

22.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.80

2 (-0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.252.00

Under 3.251.80

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.25 → 3.25	Pinn 3.32 ★
X	3.80 → 3.80	Pinn 3.84
2	2.00 → 2.00	Pinn 2.04

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.1% Pinnacle margin 5.2%

Time*	1	X	2
02:36 +6’	3.25	3.80	2.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
05:05	3.22	3.78	2.05
06:46 +2’	3.29▲	3.84▲	2.05
08:34 +1’	3.32▲	3.84	2.04▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Sporting Kansas City 1–3–2 St. Louis City SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/07/26 USA MLS	St. Louis City SC	3-2 HT 2-1	Sporting Kansas City
15/05/25 USA MLS	St. Louis City SC	2-2 HT 2-0	Sporting Kansas City
06/04/25 USA MLS	Sporting Kansas City	2-0 HT 0-0	St. Louis City SC
29/09/24 USA MLS	St. Louis City SC	3-1 HT 1-0	Sporting Kansas City
21/07/24 USA MLS	Sporting Kansas City	1-1 HT 0-1	St. Louis City SC
21/04/24 USA MLS	Sporting Kansas City	3-3 HT 1-2	St. Louis City SC

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Houston Dynamo	19	11	2	6	28	24	35
2	Vancouver Whitecaps	17	10	4	3	38	17	34
3	Los Angeles FC	20	10	4	6	35	20	34
4	San Jose Earthquakes	19	10	3	6	38	27	33
5	St. Louis City SC	19	8	5	6	27	25	29
6	Real Salt Lake	18	8	4	6	30	26	28
7	FC Dallas	18	7	6	5	32	25	27
8	Colorado Rapids	19	8	1	10	29	25	25
9	Minnesota United	19	6	7	6	21	26	25
10	Portland Timbers	18	7	3	8	33	33	24
11	Seattle Sounders	17	7	3	7	20	22	24
12	San Diego FC	19	6	6	7	33	29	24
13	LA Galaxy	20	5	7	8	24	30	22
14	Austin FC	18	4	5	9	22	36	17
15	Sporting Kansas City	19	4	2	13	18	48	14

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Sporting Kansas City	St. Louis City SC
Colorado Rapids	0-2 L	1-0 W
Houston Dynamo	0-2 L	2-2 D
Los Angeles FC	0-4 L	2-1 W
Austin FC	2-1 W	3-0 W
LA Galaxy	3-1 W	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	4 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: St. Louis City SC (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Sporting Kansas City

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-0	0-2	2	5	L
02/08	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-0	0-2	2	3	L
26/07	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-3	0-4	1	2	L
23/07	Minnesota United USA MLS	1-0	2-1	3	5	W
17/07	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	1-2	2-3	6	3	L
24/05	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-2	1-2	6	3	L
17/05	Austin FC USA MLS	0-1	2-1	7	7	W
14/05	LA Galaxy USA MLS	2-0	3-1	4	3	W
10/05	Portland Timbers USA MLS	0-4	0-6	4	6	L
02/05	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-1	1-1	4	2	D

St. Louis City SC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
16/08	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	2-0	3-1	5	3	W
02/08	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-0	1-1	9	6	D
26/07	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-0	1-0	10	4	W
23/07	LA Galaxy USA MLS	2-0	3-1	7	5	W
17/07	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	2-1	3-2	5	3	W
23/05	Austin FC USA MLS	1-0	3-0	2	2	W
20/05	Houston Dynamo USA US Open Cup	1-2	2-2	3	8	D
17/05	DC United USA MLS	0-0	1-1	8	8	D
14/05	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	1-0	2-1	2	6	W
10/05	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	1-0	1-0	1	10	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Sporting Kansas City vs St. Louis City SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is an St. Louis City SC win (47%). Probabilities: Sporting Kansas City 29%, draw 24%, St. Louis City SC 47%.

How many goals are expected in Sporting Kansas City vs St. Louis City SC?

The model expects 3.36 goals (Sporting Kansas City 1.46 · St. Louis City SC 1.89), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Sporting Kansas City vs St. Louis City SC?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.