Football · USA MLS · 20/08, 03:30

Prediction: Seattle Sounders vs Austin FC

Team pages: Seattle Sounders · Austin FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.01Total

Seattle Sounders1.94

Austin FC1.07

1X2

57% 24% 20%

Seattle Sounders Draw Austin FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 64% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Seattle Sounders 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

WLLLLLLLWL

Austin FC 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DLLLWLLWWD

Head-to-head

Seattle Sounders 3–1–2 Austin FC (6 last)

Austin FC3-1Seattle Sounders
Austin FC2-1Seattle Sounders
Seattle Sounders2-0Austin FC
Austin FC0-1Seattle Sounders
Seattle Sounders0-0Austin FC
Austin FC1-2Seattle Sounders

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Seattle Sounders 1435 · Austin FC 1485

	Seattle Sounders	Draw	Austin FC
Our model	57%	24%	20%
Market	57%	23%	20%

Estimated total (ours) 3.01 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Austin FC (rating 1435 vs 1485).
H2H favours Seattle Sounders: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Seattle Sounders	Austin FC
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.1	1.2 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	40/30/30%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.9	2 / 3.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0.1	4.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.65

X4.00

24.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 32.00

Under 31.80

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 02:42

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.65 → 1.65	Bet365 1.65
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 6.7%

Time*	1	X	2
02:42	1.65	4.00	4.75

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Seattle Sounders 3–1–2 Austin FC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
23/07/26 USA MLS	Austin FC	3-1 HT 1-1	Seattle Sounders
22/09/25 USA MLS	Austin FC	2-1 HT 1-0	Seattle Sounders
29/06/25 USA MLS	Seattle Sounders	2-0 HT 1-0	Austin FC
14/07/24 USA MLS	Austin FC	0-1 HT 0-0	Seattle Sounders
03/03/24 USA MLS	Seattle Sounders	0-0 HT 0-0	Austin FC
31/08/23 USA MLS	Austin FC	1-2 HT 0-0	Seattle Sounders

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Houston Dynamo	19	11	2	6	28	24	35
2	Vancouver Whitecaps	17	10	4	3	38	17	34
3	Los Angeles FC	20	10	4	6	35	20	34
4	San Jose Earthquakes	19	10	3	6	38	27	33
5	St. Louis City SC	19	8	5	6	27	25	29
6	Real Salt Lake	18	8	4	6	30	26	28
7	FC Dallas	18	7	6	5	32	25	27
8	Colorado Rapids	19	8	1	10	29	25	25
9	Minnesota United	19	6	7	6	21	26	25
10	Portland Timbers	18	7	3	8	33	33	24
11	Seattle Sounders	17	7	3	7	20	22	24
12	San Diego FC	19	6	6	7	33	29	24
13	LA Galaxy	20	5	7	8	24	30	22
14	Austin FC	18	4	5	9	22	36	17
15	Sporting Kansas City	19	4	2	13	18	48	14

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Seattle Sounders

WLLLLLLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/08	Chivas Guadalajara Leagues Cup	1-0	1-2	5	1	L
09/08	Queretaro Leagues Cup	2-0	3-0	2	1	W
06/08	Toluca Leagues Cup	0-1	0-3	1	0	L
02/08	Portland Timbers USA MLS	1-1	1-2	5	4	L
26/07	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	0-1	0-1	1	1	L
23/07	Austin FC USA MLS	1-1	1-3	4	5	L
17/07	Portland Timbers USA MLS	0-1	1-5	2	2	L
25/05	Los Angeles FC USA MLS	0-0	0-1	5	0	L
17/05	LA Galaxy USA MLS	0-1	0-2	5	5	L
14/05	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	1-1	3-2	9	2	W

Austin FC

DLLLWLLWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/08	Club America Leagues Cup	0-0	1-1	2	4	D
10/08	Puebla Leagues Cup	3-0	3-0	7	5	W
07/08	Tijuana Leagues Cup	2-0	2-0	6	6	W
02/08	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-0	0-1	0	4	L
26/07	Houston Dynamo USA MLS	0-3	0-3	6	4	L
23/07	Seattle Sounders USA MLS	1-1	3-1	4	5	W
23/05	St. Louis City SC USA MLS	0-1	0-3	2	2	L
17/05	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	1-0	1-2	3	7	L
14/05	San Diego FC USA MLS	0-2	0-5	3	1	L
11/05	Minnesota United USA MLS	1-0	2-2	4	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Seattle Sounders vs Austin FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Seattle Sounders win (57%). Probabilities: Seattle Sounders 57%, draw 24%, Austin FC 20%.

How many goals are expected in Seattle Sounders vs Austin FC?

The model expects 3.01 goals (Seattle Sounders 1.94 · Austin FC 1.07), with a 53% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Seattle Sounders vs Austin FC?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.