Football · USA MLS · 30/08, 02:30

Prediction: Minnesota United vs Orlando City SC

Team pages: Minnesota United · Orlando City SC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.17Total

Minnesota United1.95

Orlando City SC1.22

1X2

53% 24% 23%

Minnesota United Draw Orlando City SC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Minnesota United 1-5-4 (W-D-L)

DLLDLDDDLW

Orlando City SC 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LWDLWWLDLW

Head-to-head

Minnesota United 2–1–3 Orlando City SC (6 last)

Orlando City SC2-3Minnesota United
Minnesota United1-2Orlando City SC
Orlando City SC2-0Minnesota United
Orlando City SC4-5Minnesota United
Orlando City SC3-1Minnesota United
Minnesota United1-1Orlando City SC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Minnesota United 1469 · Orlando City SC 1509

	Minnesota United	Draw	Orlando City SC
Our model	53%	24%	23%
Market	54%	23%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 3.17 goals · Bet365 line 3.25

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Orlando City SC (rating 1469 vs 1509).
H2H favours Orlando City SC: 3-1-2.
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Minnesota United	Orlando City SC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.3 / 1.3	1.8 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.7	0.6 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/30/50%	30/20/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.9 / 6.2	1.6 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.3 / 0	3.8 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.73

X4.00

24.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.95

2 (+0.75)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.90

Under 3.251.90

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 00:23

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Pinn 1.76
X	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.16 ★
2	4.00 → 4.00	Pinn 4.05

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 7.9% Pinnacle margin 5.5%

Time*	1	X	2
00:22 +1’	1.73	4.00	4.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
00:23	1.76	4.16	4.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Minnesota United 2–1–3 Orlando City SC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/03/24 USA MLS	Orlando City SC	2-3 HT 1-2	Minnesota United
16/04/23 USA MLS	Minnesota United	1-2 HT 0-0	Orlando City SC
01/02/23 World Club Friendlies	Orlando City SC	2-0 HT 1-0	Minnesota United
03/02/22 Friendlies	Orlando City SC	4-5	Minnesota United
07/08/20 USA MLS is Back Tournament	Orlando City SC	3-1 HT 2-0	Minnesota United
18/08/19 USA MLS	Minnesota United	1-1 HT 0-0	Orlando City SC

Standings · USA MLS · MLS 2026, Western Conference

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Vancouver Whitecaps	20	12	4	4	45	18	40
2	Houston Dynamo	21	12	2	7	30	26	38
3	Los Angeles FC	22	10	5	7	36	22	35
4	San Jose Earthquakes	21	10	3	8	39	33	33
5	FC Dallas	21	9	6	6	38	34	33
6	St. Louis City SC	21	9	6	6	30	27	33
7	Colorado Rapids	21	9	1	11	30	28	28
8	Real Salt Lake	20	8	4	8	34	32	28
9	Portland Timbers	21	8	4	9	38	37	28
10	Minnesota United	21	7	7	7	27	29	28
11	San Diego FC	21	7	6	8	37	32	27
12	LA Galaxy	22	6	8	8	27	32	26
13	Seattle Sounders	20	7	4	9	22	27	25
14	Austin FC	21	5	6	10	26	40	21
15	Sporting Kansas City	20	4	3	13	19	49	15

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Minnesota United	Orlando City SC
San Jose Earthquakes	5-1 W	4-0 W
Atlanta United	1-2 L	1-1 D
Real Salt Lake	1-1 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Orlando City SC (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Minnesota United

DLLDLDDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	3-1	5-1	3	1	W
20/08	Atlanta United USA MLS	0-1	1-2	6	7	L
16/08	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-0	1-1	9	4	D
02/08	San Diego FC USA MLS	1-0	1-1	8	2	D
26/07	Vancouver Whitecaps USA MLS	0-0	0-0	5	3	D
23/07	Sporting Kansas City USA MLS	0-1	1-2	6	5	L
24/05	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-1	1-1	6	2	D
17/05	New England Revolution USA MLS	1-1	1-2	11	3	L
14/05	Colorado Rapids USA MLS	0-1	0-1	5	9	L
11/05	Austin FC USA MLS	0-1	2-2	3	7	D

Orlando City SC

LWDLWWLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
23/08	Real Salt Lake USA MLS	0-1	2-1	5	4	W
20/08	Chicago Fire USA MLS	0-1	1-2	3	4	L
16/08	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	0-1	1-1	10	3	D
02/08	New York Red Bulls USA MLS	0-2	2-3	4	5	L
26/07	Nashville SC USA MLS	0-0	1-0	2	1	W
23/07	San Jose Earthquakes USA MLS	2-0	4-0	2	6	W
24/05	FC Cincinnati USA MLS	1-2	2-6	9	5	L
17/05	Atlanta United USA MLS	1-0	1-1	4	3	D
14/05	Philadelphia Union USA MLS	2-0	4-3	2	4	W
09/05	CF Montreal USA MLS	0-0	0-2	3	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Minnesota United vs Orlando City SC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Minnesota United win (53%). Probabilities: Minnesota United 53%, draw 24%, Orlando City SC 23%.

How many goals are expected in Minnesota United vs Orlando City SC?

The model expects 3.17 goals (Minnesota United 1.95 · Orlando City SC 1.22), with a 52% chance of under 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Minnesota United vs Orlando City SC?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.